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Author Topic: job forecasts  (Read 15555 times)

stpeter

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2003, 07:53:51 am »

You say 45 min. or so, that's a summer-time traffic estimate.  Yahoo! maps says it is 55 minutes from city-center to city-center.
Then there is the fact that it is somewhat mountainous, then there is the fact that there can be a lot of snow on the ground at certain times of the year, it is a major highway, so it is going to be kept plowed, but if it is icy, you are going to be driving 30 m.p.h. instead of 75, and it might just take 1 hr. 45 minutes each way on those few days.

55 minutes probably assumes you're driving 55 miles an hour. The speed limit on that stretch of highway is 75. Also, it is not mountainous -- it's a straight shot on the plains just east of the Front Range. In bad weather, this road has been known to close because of drifting snow (happened about a month ago when here in Denver we got 3 feet of snow), but it doesn't happen that often (our recent blizzard was the second-biggest on record).
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craft_6

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2003, 08:42:44 am »

Clearly, all of the states, even Vermont, have enough jobs for 20,000 hard working people.  However, some people still question this, for whatever strange reason.  Well, the ability to get more jobs within 40 min. of Wyoming than within any of the other FSP states, should answer the problem to those folks.  As long as you are able to drive 45 min or so, you will be able to get a high paying job in your current field.  There is no need to worry.

I don't doubt that 20,000 people could find jobs in any of the ten states.  The question is really what types of jobs are available, and how much will recruiting the next 15,000 members be slowed if a state with a less vibrant and varied jobs market is selected.  Your information on Ft. Collins might allay some of those doubts if Wyoming is selected, but commuting 1.5 to 2 hours a day would have a negative impact on anyone's political activism, as others have noted.


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Zxcv

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2003, 10:06:18 am »

Jason, are you looking at some web site for the 2000-2010 figures, or are you corresponding directly with the states? And is it still the case the ND and WY figures are not in?

Another item - when I did those regressions of jobs vs population, 1-2-3 seemed only to have linear regressions available, and that appeared not to be that accurate at the low-population end of the spectrum. I'm wondering if there are add-ons to 1-2-3 you are aware of, or if other spreadsheets provide non-linear regressions?
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JasonPSorens

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2003, 10:19:52 am »

Originally all the figures came from correspondence, but I've since noticed that almost all of them had posted the figures on their websites.  ND & WY still haven't posted; I may contact them again.

Non-linear regressions are tricky; I've never done one myself, other than logit, probit, etc.  I know standard spreadsheet programs won't do them for you.  What you may want to do is just to cut off the observations at the point where it seems to become nonlinear, and see whether the remaining observations seem to be clustered linearly.  If so, you can do a regression with just those.
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freedomroad

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #19 on: April 14, 2003, 11:09:49 am »

This is encouraging information, FreedomRoad.  I now know more options for employment if we choose Wyoming.

Some caveats, however:

  • You say 45 min. or so, that's a summer-time traffic estimate.  Yahoo! maps says it is 55 minutes from city-center to city-center.

Then there is the fact that it is somewhat mountainous, then there is the fact that there can be a lot of snow on the ground at certain times of the year, it is a major highway, so it is going to be kept plowed, but if it is icy, you are going to be driving 30 m.p.h. instead of 75, and it might just take 1 hr. 45 minutes each way on those few days.
  • Working out-of-state means you will not take advantage of the tax benefits of working in Wyoming.  Wyoming residents might appreciate the fact that you are bringing money into the community, but some of that will be lost on taxes to Colorado.
Colorado has low tax, low income and sales taxes.  However, many of the same type of people that will work in CO are the same type that would shop and go to pro baseball, football, hockey, and so on.  In other words, these type of people might go to CO from time to time anyway.  Just as they would travel to Spokane WA from Idaho, Spokane WA from MT, St. Paul MN from ND, and Boston MA from NH or ME.  
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  • As discussed on a thread about commuting out-of-state, you will lose valuable time commuting that could be used towards greater causes.  But if that is the trade-off that has to be made to even move into the state, it is all worth it.
A driver might lose some time.  It takes 40-50 min to get to most of the Ft. Collins' job market from Wyoming.  However, since many people that live in Wyoming will travel to CO anyway, for shopping and pro entertainment, the commute seems much shorter.  Also, the same is true for those that live in ID (Spokabe, NH (Boston), DE (philly)...

Remember, many millions of Americas commute for 40-50min, or longer, to work, right NOW.  This is VERY common for people that work in cities and these are the types of people that will want to do this anyway, because the jobs in Ft. Collins pay so MUCH MONEY.

Of course, this will give us a chance to network with one of the most active LPs in the country, the COLP.  To pass the time, we can listen to Michael Cloud's tapes and other tapes on our car radios.  In fact, we will have people that make tapes for our FSP members just for this commute.  Do not forget that CO has political rallies, and some of our members will better be able to go to them if they work in CO.

Also, the Interstate speed limit is 75 mph.  That means 80 mph is fine.  The road is usually closed for a handful of days during the year.  However, this also prevents many of the people that live in CO from going to work so this is not a problem for us.  You do not have to drive 35 mph in CO if the road has ice on it.  CO is good about removing the ice and chains are sometimes used.  Of course, I am not talking about everyone working in CO, just those that want $65,000- $200,000 a year.  It is easy to get those jobs in CO if you have the skills.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2003, 06:02:40 pm by FreedomRoad »
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freedomroad

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2003, 11:16:45 am »

I don't doubt that 20,000 people could find jobs in any of the ten states.  The question is really what types of jobs are available, and how much will recruiting the next 15,000 members be slowed if a state with a less vibrant and varied jobs market is selected.  Your information on Ft. Collins might allay some of those doubts if Wyoming is selected, but commuting 1.5 to 2 hours a day would have a negative impact on anyone's political activism, as others have noted.
It might not, it really depends.  Let's say I have a job in Wyoming and I am able to give $3,000 a year to freedom but if I have a job in CO I am able to give $7,500 to freedom.  Now, that makes a huge difference.  yes, I have to drive 45min to work, instead of 22.  however, if doubling the commute worth giving an extra $3,500 to freedom?  Some would say yes.  If Wyoming is picked, people will network with the freedom groups in CO anyway (to share activsts, money, rallies, conferences, research, and other stuff).  Now, wouldn't it be nice if I only had to drive 10 min to network with the freedom movements in CO, instead of 50 min?  yeah, that sounds good.  

Think about business.  With soon to be (2025), 5,000,000+ million people in the Co Front Range trade region, wouldn't that make a great target for out products?
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Zxcv

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2003, 10:59:49 pm »

Funny how the big square states have shorter commute times than the little eastern ones. Who'da thunk it?

I bet the distances are longer, though.

It is probably a nicer drive, as well as a shorter duration one. But you really need to try not to hit those cows on the road.   :D  And elk and even buffalo...

Not long ago I had a job about 8 miles from home. Took over 30 minutes to get there because there were 22 stop lights. I call this town "The Land of Many Stoplights". I dream of leaving it some day.  >:(
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freedomroad

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Re:job forecasts - are they important?
« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2003, 01:32:42 pm »

There has been a lot of talk about job forecasts and how they are SOOOOOO important.  The current job forecast of a state is just ONE part of the puzzle.  When you look at the whole picture, things may be very different.  Here are some thoughts about the whole picture in relation to Wyoming.  Other states might have similar whole pictures:

This is in relpy to this quote, from another thread,

Quote
Oh, one last thing. The aim of the FSP is not to get 20,000 people jobs. Even if we could get only 10,000 into Wyoming, we would still be better off than getting 20,000 into the big states (hmmm, 10,000 activists in a state with 27,000 jobs - seems doable). You NH fans should appreciate this, anyway, because you will harvest the extras. And if we can get all 20,000 into Wyoming, well, that will be a hell of a Project!

 

I cannot imagine why we could not get 50,000 people into Wyoming.  The % of retired people in the FSP population is at least as high as the regular United States population.  Others of us will be retired in 5-10 years, when we actually move (or just after the move).  

Of course, Wyoming only has 27,000 projected jobs, right now; however, that number would go up to around 40,000 if we moved there.  

Also, that is just new jobs, we could always take many of the jobs that some of the current, lazy statist have, so that is another 50,000-100,000 jobs that we might possibly get.  

Of course, at least 1,000-3,000 of the 20,000 will be self-bosses.  Many of these people will be able to transfer their company to WY, or any state, even NH, without much problem.  We will even be able to create new markets.

Then you have Ft. Collins, with 10 times as many projected job openings as we need.  And, it is only 35-40 min from Wyoming.  

Well, maybe we could move 20,000 people into Wyoming and then another 3,000 people a year for 20-30 years.  Now, that would be great.  We could even become a majority in many of the towns and counties.  The jobs are there.  We just have to do the work.  We could also recruit all truckers and claim Wyoming and vote.  The same thing with all pilots, oil people, sailors, loggers, river workers...  We might be able to get another 50,00 votes from these wonderful, liberty-loving people.

Much of this will work in any state, even NH.

Jobs are not are problem, it is statists and over-regulation and we are going to solve those problems.  
« Last Edit: April 28, 2003, 10:34:05 am by FreedomRoad »
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Zxcv

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2003, 05:43:42 am »

I forgot about taking jobs from "lazy statists"!   :D

Keith, if it works out the way you think it will, then Wyoming is really the best state in the area of jobs, because we will shut down statist immigration for a long time by taking all available jobs. No other state will permit us to do this. Seems like jobs should be a "less is better" (within reason) variable in the spreadsheet, not a "more is better"...

Do you really think half the FSPers are retired? That seems to be what you are saying. I kinda doubt it. I think Jason said the retired are more numerous in FSP than in the general population, but it's probably not half.

Does anyone have an idea how many jobs we need? What with some FSP retirees, and FSP couples with just one working spouse, our job need for 20,000 FSPers may be below 15,000. It would be interesting to know.

I have a feeling, after we get going in Wyoming (if it's chosen), we will also trigger more freedom-seeking movement into Idaho, South Dakota and New Hampshire as well, a kind of sympathetic migration.  :)
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JasonPSorens

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2003, 07:13:48 am »

I think the # of retirees in the FSP is much less than half, but more than 10%.  My rough guess would be 20%.  The rest of us seem to be mostly 20s, 30s, and early 40s.  We don't do too well among the 50-somethings.  :-\
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freedomroad

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #25 on: June 19, 2003, 04:11:32 pm »

Great news guys, Wyoming's job forecasts is up, WAY UP.

They went from 27,000+ to 36,000+.  A lot of the growth is happening along the borders.  Evanston near Salt Lake City, Cheyenne near Ft. Collins, Boulder, and Denver, and Gillette near Rapid City.

Jason posted this at
http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=2017

"The Wyoming projections for 2000-2010 have been released: Wyoming is projected to create 36,263 new jobs over this period, with the greatest areas of growth being the Southwest, the Northeast, and the Casper and Cheyenne areas.  Full report:

http://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/EmpOutlook2010.pdf "
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craft_6

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #26 on: July 17, 2003, 04:51:14 pm »

For those who consider the availability of jobs as an important criterion in the state selection decision, here is the current (7/17/03) number of job openings listed for each of the candidate states on:

http://www.monster.com
http://www.hotjobs.com
http://www.careerbuilder.com

I did a search on each state, and asked to show all jobs in all categories.  I then added up the results from all three sites.  (Some jobs may be listed on more than one site.)  This is not meant to be a comprehensive survey, just an indicator of how easy it might be to find a job right now.  Here are the totals:

Delaware:  2,331
New Hampshire:  1,651
Idaho:  1,189
Maine:  878
Vermont:  707
South Dakota:  628
Montana:  610
Alaska:  545
North Dakota:  490
Wyoming:  309
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Zxcv

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #27 on: July 18, 2003, 01:25:33 am »

Yeah, but these sites are hardly representative of the full spectrum of jobs out there. Nor do the different states use the Internet equally in filling job positions.

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craft_6

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Re:job forecasts
« Reply #28 on: July 18, 2003, 09:48:14 am »

Yeah, but these sites are hardly representative of the full spectrum of jobs out there. Nor do the different states use the Internet equally in filling job positions.

You are correct, although they are more indicative of how easily an out of state professional or technical person could find job leads there without actually visiting the state.  States with more manufacturing, natural resource, or retail heavy economies will probably be underrepresented in Internet job postings.

Job openings and job forecast data should also be considered along with the other important factors, of course.  Three of the top four states (NH, ID, ME) on the list above have significantly higher populations than the other seven states.  Delaware looks good when comparing current job openings to population, but may not rank highly on other factors.  The other six states are probably pretty comparable in terms of finding jobs, given the inaccuracy of my method.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2003, 09:49:16 am by craft_6 »
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