Karl,

I thought you'd see what I was getting at.

Okay.

I'll make it simpler.

We're on a football field.

We have a choice of two opponents.

- There are 20 of us and 182 of them (Wyoming's team)

or

- There are 20 of us and 480 of them (Maine's team)

Either way we're still so outnumbered that we'll get stomped if we don't lure some defectors to our side or at least get them to sit out the game.

How many of them can we get to defect to our side?

100?Â Good enough against Wyoming's state champions.

200?Â Not quite good enough against Maine's state champions.

How many of them can we get to sit on the sidelines?

165?Â It's good enough against Wyoming's state champions.

400?Â Not good enough against Maine's state champions.

What if we get some of the opposition to defect to our side

and some to sit on the sidelines?

How many of each?

55 defectors plus 55 sitters to win against Wyoming's state champions.

155 defectors plus 155 sitters to win against Maine's state champions.

If

- There are 20 of us and 441 of them (New Hampshire's state champions)

We would need a tad more than (441-20)/3 of each.

141 defectors (leaving 300)

plus 141 sitters (leaving 159 opponents)

for our 20+141 to win against New Hampshire's state champions.

Me?

I'd rather take on the smallest team and hope for lots of defectors and sitters.

Even Vermont's state champions wouldn't be too bad.

- There are 20 of us and 223 of them (Vermont's state champions)

We would need a tad more than (223-20)/3 of each.

68 defectors (leaving 155)

plus 68 sitters (leaving 87 opponents)

for our 20+68 to win against Vermont's state champions.

Throw all these calculations out if our guys are big and brutesome and the other team is a bunch of third string underweights.

But what if their guys are big and brutesome professionals

(ringers like in the M*A*S*H movie)

and our team is a bunch of amateur electron pushers?

Whose side are you betting on?

Will you bet your farm?