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[craft_6]

I'm starting this thread to track and discuss the results of the 2002 elections in the ten candidate states.  Items of interest:

1. Voter turnout, absolute numbers and percent of population (compare to 2000)

2. Political party results (Libertarian, Republican, Democrat, Green, Constitution, etc.)

3. Ballot measure results (especially those dealing with individual liberty or the size and power of government)

4. Campaign spending per state (how high is the bar?)

[George Reich]

New Hampshire has an interesting question on the ballot to clarify the power balance between the legislative and judical branches of government. I hope to God it passes with the required 2/3 majority.

http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/misc/voterguide.html


 

[George Reich]

Coffee and donuts?? I've never seen those at a polling place in New Hampshire, but I guess it's an interesting idea!

[mdlowry]

Lib40, I voted at a school on the seacoast.  The 4th grade class was having a bake sale.  

[George Reich]

It's a wonderful idea and very New Hampshire-ey!

 

[craft_6]

Another online source for results:  http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2002/  (Choose the "Pick a State" pulldown menu.)

Interesting ballot measures:

South Dakota defeated the jury nullification proposal, 80-20%.  Not all libertarians support jury nullification, but I would guess that anyone who does support it would be sympathetic to libertarian reforms.

North Dakota defeated a proposal to pay young people up to $10K to stay in the state, 57-42%.  Not a libertarian solution by any means, but a sign that the state might welcome an influx of new residents of any kind.

Massachusetts voters defeated Question 1 to repeal the state income tax, but only by a 54-46% vote.  Even in one of the most statist states, there are a lot of people who think government has gone too far.  This also offers hope that the FSP could use ballot initiatives in a more liberty-friendly state for rapid statewide gains, while simultaneously working the longer-term bottom-up strategy.

[craft_6]

Percentage of Republican and Libertarian votes in national races in our ten candidate states:  (I=Incumbent, vI=vs. Incumbent)

Alaska
--------
Governor:  R-56, L-0
Senate:  R-79 (I), L-1
House:  R-75 (I), L-2

Delaware
------------
Senate:  R-41 (vI), L-0
House:  R-72 (I), L-1

Idaho
-------
Governor:  R-56 (I), L-2
Senate:  R-65 (I), L-2
House1:  R-59 (I), L-2
House2:  R-68 (I), L-3

Maine
-------
Governor:  R-41, L-0
Senate:  R-58 (I), L-0
House1:  R-36 (vI), L-0
House2:  R-47, L-0

Montana
-----------
Senate:  R-32 (vI), L-3
House:  R-64 (I), L-3

New Hampshire
--------------------
Governor:  R-59, L-3
Senate:  R-51, L-2
House1:  R-58, L-3
House2:  R-57 (I), L-2

North Dakota
-----------------
House:  R-48 (vI), L-0

South Dakota
-----------------
Governor:  R-57, L-0
Senate:  R-49 (vI), L-1
House:  R-53, L-1

Vermont
-----------
Governor:  R-45, L-1
House:  R-32 (vI), L-1

Wyoming
------------
Governor:  R-48, L-2
Senate:  R-73 (I), L-0
House:  R-61 (I), L-3

Looks like Libertarians did the best in Montana, Idaho, and New Hampshire.

[craft_6]

Looking at the Republican results above (and assuming some correlation between Republican success and a willingness to downsize government among the voters, even if the candidates don't actually do that when elected), I would conclude the following:

Alaska:  Solidly Republican.  Both Republican incumbents won big, and a Republican won the open race.

Delaware:  Not as Democratic as I would have guessed.  The Republican incumbent in the House won big, and the Republican challenger for Senate cracked 40% against an incumbent.

Idaho:  All Republican incumbents, all won comfortably.

Maine:  Republicans did not fare well here at all.  Coupled with the state's high population, this has to be one of the least favorable states for success of the FSP.

Montana:  The Republican challenger didn't put up a very good showing against the incumbent Senator.

New Hampshire:  A Republican sweep.

North Dakota:  The Republican challenger in the House did well against an incument.

South Dakota:  Senate race still very close -- a very good showing for the Republican challenger.

Vermont:  The Republican actually did pretty well in the Governor's race -- it appears headed to the state legislature to decide.

Wyoming:  The Governor's race was a downside surprise for Republicans, but the other candidates won.


My conclusion from this:  Most of the candidate states appear to be solidly Republican.  Vermont and Delaware might not be as socialistic as some have made them out to be.  Maine looks like a lost cause.

[craft_6]

Approximate voter turnout yesterday (numbers are to nearest 1K in US House races, with percent of precincts reporting in parentheses):

Wyoming (97%):     176K
Alaska (98%):         194K

Vermont (99%):       222K
Delaware (100%):    228K
N. Dakota (100%):   231K

Montana (100%):        310K
S. Dakota (100%):       337K

Idaho (100%):              401K
Maine (89%):                437K
N. Hampshire (100%):      441K

[ZionCurtain]

I think we need to make some changes to the states. I would like to see the 20,000 to be at least 8% of the voter turnout. I know that it would eliminate some of the popular states but aren't we in it to win it?

[George Reich]

ZionCurtain,

New Hampshire had a record breaking turnout because the electorate became outraged by a personal income tax proposal put forth by the Democratic party. Many of these people are independents who are fiscally conservative to a fault but are libertarian on personal freedom issues - so they can't bring themselves to register as Republicans.

Isn't this the crowd we'd like to turn out on election day??

Lib40

Story about the record turnout:

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/news/1770161/detail.html

[JT]

WYOMING:

(2000)
People of voting age: 358,000
People registered to vote:  220,012 (61% of voting age residents)
Ballots cast: 221,685 (yes 101% of registered voters)

U.S. Senate
Dem.- 47,087 (21.2%)
Lib.- 8,950 (4.0%)
Rep.- 157,622 (71.1%)

U.S. Rep.
Dem.- 60,638 (27.4%)
Lib.- 6,411 (2.9%)
Nat.- 3,415 (1.5%)
Rep.- 141,848 (64.0%)


(2002)
People of voting age: 364,909
People registered to vote: 241,200 (66% of voting age residents)
Ballots cast: 188,533 (78.1% of registered voters)

U.S. Senate
Dem.- 49,582  (26.3%)
Rep.- 133,758 (70.9%)

U.S. Rep.
Dem.-  65,962 (35.0%)
Lib.- 5,961 (3.2%)
Rep.- 110,239 (58.5%)

Governor
Dem.- 92,645 (49.1%)
Lib.- 3,912 (2.1%)
Rep.- 88,888 (47.1%)

[Tyler]

The election in Delaware wasn't much of a suprise. I lived there for a over five years back in the early to mid '90s and met Mr Clatworthy when he was making his earlier bid against Sen Biden. Clatworthy has some decent ideas (six years ago he supported privatising social security-I loved the ads where Biden's people said he supported a risky scheme from Chile), but the people of Delaware are notorious for their love of incumbents (the only recent incumbent who lost was Bill Roth, who was beaten by a popular term limited governor named Tom Carper for the senate). Biden has held his seat since 1972 and I'm fairly sure that even if 20k of you did move there you'd still be hard pressed to beat him.

Still some truly atrocious figures were beaten around the country, so not all is lost.

And the Libertarian candidate for governor of Wisconsin got 10 percent of the vote. Let me qualify that by saying he's Tommy Thompson's brother, but that's still interesting

One final point, the Green party picked up their first seat in a State House in....Maine. 31st district in west Portland, if I remember right.

[Solitar]

Tyler,
Welcome Aboard!

All is not lost - yet.
As you say in the "Bottom Five" thread about Delaware,

"the truth is that they are far too moderate and too complacent to really go out and do something as uncomfortable as to boot out their incumbent elected officials"

The liberty-minded people are outnumbered everywhere, even in the most free states, as evidenced by the state of liberty in even the most free states. Ten percent of the vote is still an embarrassing loss. After thirty years the libertarians can't even muster 20% or 30%.

[craft_6]

More votes trickling in..... (US House races, approximate totals, according to CNN)

Wyoming   182K
Alaska       195K

Vermont     223K
Delaware   228K
N. Dakota   231K

Montana     328K
S. Dakota   337K

Idaho               404K
N. Hampshire   441K
Maine               480K