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Author Topic: Independent vote: NH & ID & others.  (Read 13384 times)

Solitar

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Independent vote: NH & ID & others.
« on: October 30, 2002, 01:46:44 pm »

"How the 1992 Election Was Different and How it Will Affect the Future of Third Party Candidates" by Robert Grabowski, May 2, 2001
http://www.american.edu/academic.depts/honors/CurrentStudents/capstones/grabowski.pdf
« Last Edit: September 26, 2003, 10:35:30 pm by Joe, aka, Solitar »
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JasonPSorens

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Re:The bottomline vote
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2002, 02:32:55 pm »

Do you mean Perot vote in 1992 or Reform vote (for Buchanan) in 2000?  The former, right?  I'm not sure we can activate all (or even half) those people on our behalf, and I do think we could increase the activist multiplier above 5.  But 5 is a good conservative number to rank the states acc. to ease of victory.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

JasonPSorens

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Re:The bottomline vote
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2002, 02:57:00 pm »



The activist multiplier of 5 is indeed conservative, but I've found that planning for less and getting more is better than planning for more and getting defeated.


Sure, definitely.

Quote

The activist multiplier could have been a percentage of the population, yet just how far can a shoestring movement stretch their resources? If they are primarily using personal campaign tactics rather than mass media conversion tactics, then the absolute numbers may be more accurate. An activist can knock on only so many doors and pass out only so many flyers. Thus five to one is an estimate for "activation".


Presumably we'll be using both kinds of tactics, but I have no problem with using the absolute number in the above tables.  Interesting stuff.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

ZionCurtain

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2002, 06:29:33 pm »

Interesting how the top 2 in votes are in the bottom 3 for chance of success. Meanwhile Wyoming 3rd in voting is at the top of this list.

I could be easily swayed to place my 10 votes on Wyoming. It would not be far for me to move at all and my wife has friends there.
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Mark Alexander

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Re:The bottomline vote
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2002, 07:04:45 pm »


Jason,
in reponse to your thought of the FSP also using mass media tactics...
rather than generating another several-column table, let's just consider that such tactics would net another ten percent of the voters (from the 70%voting column).  Here is thus yet another ranking for such a combination of tactics.

I'm using the 60%-to-win-with-a-mandate table above.
The negative number for Wyoming means no shortfall and thus a WIN!! ;D
table deleted

I used gnuplot to plot shortfall as a function of total population, using this last set of data.  It's a fairly straight line, with two big blips: Delaware above the line, and Maine below the line (lower is better).  This suggests that there's a pretty direct correlation between the two, which isn't surprising.

But your scenario also suggests that victories will hang by a thread, lending weight to the argument in http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=635;start=0 that population should be treated as a non-linear variable in the comparison matrix.
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JasonPSorens

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Re:The bottomline vote
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2002, 08:30:45 pm »



I used gnuplot to plot shortfall as a function of total population, using this last set of data.  It's a fairly straight line, with two big blips: Delaware above the line, and Maine below the line (lower is better).  This suggests that there's a pretty direct correlation between the two, which isn't surprising.


Right - the sole reason for the lack of a perfect correlation is that Joe is including 1992 Perot voters as a demographic that we will secure.  I'm still not convinced by his argument there. ;)  The Perot vote was mostly (though not totally) one of protest and resentment: those who voted for Perot largely did so out of a backlash against free trade, the global economy, and technological change.  At least, this is what one could judge from Perot's platform, the flash-in-the-pan nature of his candidacy, and the economic conditions in 1992.  It's also what I've gathered from talking to Perot supporters of the time.  However, resentment is not a good basis for an autonomist movement.  Autonomist movements thrive on confidence mixed with a bit of resentment.  States that are confident in their economic future but resent being held back by the federal government are best, all else equal.  States that are fearful and resentful of the future are not good ground.  I fear that including Perot vote as a favorable factor would make us more likely to choose one of the resentful, fearful, depressed states and less likely to choose a strong, confident state.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

JasonPSorens

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2002, 09:32:56 am »


The 1992 Reform vote must not be ignored by the FSP because the Free State activists will be trying to BE a successful third party -- whether they try to hijack the Republican party or try to form a coalition from all parties.


Certainly we can learn some lessons from the Perot experience.  Probably what hurt the Reform movement most is their concentration on presidential politics to the exclusion of local and state activism.  I'm just not sure that the Perot vote is something good for us for state choice.  Looks as if it was mostly Southern states that were anti-Perot in 1992, probably because most of them were solidly Republican by that time.  But part of it also has to do with the fact that the Southern states were doing quite well economically in the early 90s compared to the rest of the country, and confidence in the "New South" has grown substantially over the last decade.  If not for their populations and some diehard left-wing minorities, Southern states would be good candidates for an autonomist movement because they have a history, a sense of unique identity, and confidence in their future.  I actually think the League of the South and the various Southern parties are not good banners for the Southern autonomist movement, because their platforms are largely retrogressive and Confederate-nostalgic.  We need a post-Confederate Southern nationalism that views the rebel flag issue as irrelevant but the social and economic concerns of the South as paramount.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

Solitar

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2003, 02:13:41 pm »

Just the fact that the FSP activists are willing to uproot and move means they are willing to vote for change and are not happy with where they are.

Surely there are more where they are coming from.
One in a thousand - recruitment opportunities
Recruiting Activsts and not just "Members"
« Last Edit: August 11, 2003, 04:52:29 pm by Joe, aka, Solitar »
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Kelton

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2003, 11:05:53 am »

Joe, these arguments are well understood (Speaking for myself only); however, the gist of the emotional arguments for NH and ID is that there are already strong freedom movements within those states and a presumed higher percentage of supporters already living there.  

One assumption is that when the composite measure of restriction of freedom found in the laws of a state are more free and less restrictive, the people of that state had some determination in that. Idaho, for example has some of the least restrictive laws concerning business enterprise and licensing of all 50 states and as a whole, the least restictive laws concerning many personal freedoms measured, and has repeatedly through our measurements shown to have the lowest dollar amount of fines among the states.  New Hampshire also shines on many measures that smaller states do not.  

We know that all the members of the FSP moving into a state will only make up a very small percentage of any state, Wyoming included.  Our success is entirely dependant upon how 'big of a boulder' we have to move, how far we have to convince the populace that freedom is a superior alternaitve to statism.

While I have certainly been discouraged by the track record of Idaho and New Hampshire on certain recent trends, I am amazed by how these two states 'buck the trend' of more population= more statism, demonstrating that there are considerably high segments of the population who actively stand for freedom and ensure that their voices are heard by the political leaders they vote- in.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2003, 11:13:35 am by exitus »
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DadELK68

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2003, 12:41:43 pm »

Exitus makes a good point - in trying to use numbers and tables to promote WY, you're selectively ignoring the many points which supporters of states like ID and NH have made in various postings. It's like you're trying to drown the flames of evidence which are contrary to your opinion in an ocean of minutiae. It seems a bit disingenous to ask for evidence to contradict you when such evidence has been presented exhaustively already.

It's possible to play infinite games with statistics and numbers to try to make your preferred state look good (although I can't imagine how you have the free time to come up with some of this stuff), but this sort of thing is almost contortionist in its use of speculation and assumptions. The further the WY supporters stretch to make their case, the more clearly it seems that the case can't be that strong (else why would such stretching be necessary?)

If you want to try to 'take over', creating an isolated enclave in which you can try to accomplish all of the most radical goals within a short period of time, then on paper WY appears to be the best candidate almost exclusively because of the population issue. However, if you want to SUCCESSFULLY recruit 20,000+ people within a REASONABLE amount of time, the economic, geographic and quality-of-life (as defined by the non-'glass eaters' who will inevitably have to make up the majority of the FSP) issues outweigh the simple numbers game.

Given that and the multiple evidences (without relying on contorting statistical manipulations and the occasional obscure factoid interpreted to the contrary) as listed in different places on these fora (including evidences of underlying culture such as current regulatory envoronments), the most reasonable and realistic states for long-term success of the FSP remain NH and ID.

Eric
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Zxcv

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2003, 02:32:46 pm »

Quote
The further the WY supporters stretch to make their case, the more clearly it seems that the case can't be that strong (else why would such stretching be necessary?)

Oh, please, Dad!  ::)

Damned if you do, damned if you don't, I guess.

Quote
It's possible to play infinite games with statistics and numbers to try to make your preferred state look good (although I can't imagine how you have the free time to come up with some of this stuff), but this sort of thing is almost contortionist in its use of speculation and assumptions.

It's a matter of opinion who's being the contortionist. The one who avoids hard numbers is the one who has to resort to speculations and assumptions (although I say again, I don't know why you do so - NH and ID certainly have good solid arguments supporting them - they just have this little item of population to be dispensed with).

Quote
However, if you want to SUCCESSFULLY recruit 20,000+ people within a REASONABLE amount of time, the economic, geographic and quality-of-life (as defined by the non-'glass eaters' who will inevitably have to make up the majority of the FSP) issues outweigh the simple numbers game.

Conveniently ignoring that Wyoming places second highest in the livability row on our spreadsheet. Is it too much to ask for you to dispute this row, and give evidence why we should deprecate it?

Quote
It's like you're trying to drown the flames of evidence which are contrary to your opinion in an ocean of minutiae.

We'll all do better around here if the logical fallacies are avoided:
http://www.datanation.com/fallacies/pl.htm

However, I'll agree with one thing, this thread leaves me guessing what is going on. Joe, can you explain what you mean by "shortfall"? And maybe more a big picture view so I have a reference point to be able to digest the details?
« Last Edit: February 11, 2003, 02:41:38 pm by Zxcv »
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DadELK68

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2003, 05:36:20 pm »

Don't get me wrong (Joe, Zxcv and others), I'm not knocking WY - it just seems that, at some point, manipulation of data becomes an end in itself rather than a means to an end. Some of the data manipulation going on seems to be presented as being objective, while consideration of certain underlying assumptions makes it apparent that at times there is a fair amount of selection bias going on in terms of data selected, analyses applied and interpretations made. This approach is just as much using a 'logical fallacy' as is the use of verbal imagery to illustrate a point.

As for 'avoiding hard numbers' and 'resorting to speculations and assumptions' (both of which are phrases employing logical fallacies, BTW ;)), you answered your own question/implication in your parenthetical aside - you and others have provided numbers making strong cases for ID and NH, which I appreciate greatly (given that I barely have time to read others' postings and make a few of my own a couple of days a week; I really don't know where some of you get the time).

I don't avoid numbers and data, I just thankfully acknowledge that a great deal of that work has been done, and continues being done by yourself and others. I'm consistently impressed by the fact that both NH and ID consistently rank so highly (even on the spreadsheet of a fan of WY) when you consider ALL of the permutations of spreadsheets which have been discussed, and then even more so with all of the discussion of the non-quantified concerns and variables.

I would also argue that the case for WY is strong enough that this sort of endless statistical tail-chasing is unnecessary to support your position; rather, it seems that most of it is being done and used by a couple of WY supporters to try to make it seem that WY is the only option, ignoring various concerns and issues which are being extensively discussed elsewhere. This seems more than just a bit propaganda-ish, particularly because this sort of thing is being presented as 'objective' simply because it involves numbers.

The problem is that, while they are helpful, the case isn't exclusively going to be made (and the FSP can't stand or fall) on numbers and spreadsheets alone. I'm providing the perspective of one having lived in both NH and ID, with extensive experience traveling and visiting family in the other Western/Rockies states. The numbers are helpful in getting bits and pieces of past and present information about different variables, and this can be useful in making projections - but by their very nature, projections are speculative, and it's practically impossible NOT to have such speculation swayed by personal bias.

As for the row in the spreadsheet on livability - this is a category which is mostly subjective, and the variables which one chooses to emphasize and de-emphasize in determining livability are almost purely a matter of personal bias. Hence the fact that WY places second in your spreadsheet reflects your opinions of which (of an infinite number of possible) variables you rate as being important enough to include, followed by a ranking of these variables. If you have an opinion, it's practically impossible to really be objective.

Again, I'm not knocking WY - I just think it's quite a stretch to make the case that at least 20,000 people (in addition to the current growth rate) will be ready, willing and able to move there and make things work over the next five years, in comparison to ID or NH. Either position is speculative, but I think the arguments for my position are stronger than 'if we build it, they will come'.

Eric
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DadELK68

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2003, 05:43:14 pm »

Besides, before you imply that I'm unfairly using logical fallacies, take another look at the title of this thread! ::)
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Zxcv

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2003, 06:48:57 pm »

Quote
As for the row in the spreadsheet on livability - this is a category which is mostly subjective, and the variables which one chooses to emphasize and de-emphasize in determining livability are almost purely a matter of personal bias. Hence the fact that WY places second in your spreadsheet reflects your opinions of which (of an infinite number of possible) variables you rate as being important enough to include, followed by a ranking of these variables. If you have an opinion, it's practically impossible to really be objective.

Actually, the livability row has nothing to do with my opinions or those of anyone else in FSP. They are an attempt to rate states objectively by Morgan Quitno Press, using many variables. In that way it is similar to the economic rankings EFI, EFNA and SBSI.

We are aware that this livability index is not perfect, because it includes items whose "goodness" would be looked at as "badness" from a freedom perspective, and vice versa. The remedy for that is to get hold of this index in detail (don't know the cost of that), and either reverse the rating for that item to suit us, or eliminate it altogether; when that is done, compute a new index for our states. Another remedy is to find another index or rating of livability. It's not kosher to simply dismiss the thing out of hand as some Wyoming advocate's opinion!

I have looked in some detail at the economic indices because they interest me and I consider them important to the FSP task. I am not so interested in livability, as I think livability is good enough in these states. I assign to you, Dad, the job of fixing the Morgan Quitno index for us, or getting us another index, since you are so interested in it.

The phrase about "speculations and assumptions" I got from your post, so if you are calling that a logical fallacy you are damning yourself. But I don't happen to think that falls over the line of a "prejudicial language" fallacy anyway, if that is what you were thinking of (you didn't bother to identify the fallacy).

Joe, I don't know if I buy your argument. First, as Jason says, you are making quite an assumption as to what an independent vote means (although I was myself for a short time a Perotista, before I went L - but that is anecdotal). Even more important, you are basing your analysis on a statewide vote. We already know we will be starting small. Half of our job will just be stopping the erosion of liberty in an already suitably free state, and that can be done pretty well with a few energetic and intelligent legislators. Anyway, not all states have the initiative so statewide votes are moot (except for the governor's race). These statewide candidates are more long-term in my opinion.]

Finally, another problem as exitus pointed out is that some states already have a pretty strong freedom contingent in their populations. So each FSPer will not have to find 5 voters; there will already be sufficient voters for our needs in a lot of cases. The "fall short" number is meaningless in that case.

We will be exercising as much influence via indirect means (radio, newpapers, internet chat, think tanks etc.) as via direct political action. Another factor to consider.

I cannot throw NH and ID out at this point, because they start with such a strong freedom contingent. I do throw out ME and probably MT. It is undeniable, though, that FSP would have a different flavor in NH and ID than in WY. In the latter it would feel more like we had our hand on the tiller; in the former we'd just be augmenting what is already there, and our direct influence would be much smaller. Maybe not so important, because that is where most people are in these states anyway. Actually, now that I think of it, I bet our biggest job in them (esp NH) would be discouraging statist immigration, thus defending freedom, more than actually enhancing it beyond what is already there.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2003, 06:53:09 pm by Zxcv »
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Robert H.

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Re:Bottomline vote: NH & ID fall to bottom.
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2003, 10:57:49 pm »

I see no logical fallacies in the naming of this thread.

The thread was created to discuss an analysis of voting shortfalls, which, when completed, showed Idaho and New Hampshire at the bottom of the candidate states.

Hence the thread title.  There's no fallacy in that.
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