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Author Topic: Is 20,000 enough?  (Read 22565 times)

craft_6

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #45 on: May 21, 2003, 04:03:48 pm »

My biggest concern is how much porcupines will work toghether in the chosen state.

For example, if 10,000 insist on operating through the nonpartisan league and the other 10,000 insist on operating through the LP then the vote totals are split.

This issue has been discussed previously on various threads, with different factions proposing working through a non-partisan league, the local Republican Party, the local Libertarian Party, or a new Porcupine Party.  Being free-thinkers, libertarians will be difficult to organize as a solid voting bloc, but that doesn't necessarily rule out cooperation between the different factions.

Some FSPers will work only through the LP out of principle, while others will want to work through the Republican Party for more immediate gains.  As long as the FSP continues to exist in some form, this might actually be the best solution, with a healthy and well-organized state LP ready to run viable candidates against the Republicans when an FSP-backed Republican fails to win in the Republican primary.  

If the FSP succeeds in getting a pro-liberty Republican candidate into the general election, the LP could endorse that candidate and drop out of that race.  This would allow the local LP to be even more effective than otherwise, by concentrating its resources on races against the most egregiously statist candidates.

If only 10% of the 20,000 FSPers joined the local LP, they would more than double the membership in any of the candidate states.  With enough politically involved activists, the FSP could conceivably control the state Republican AND Libertarian parties.

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Dalamar49

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #46 on: May 21, 2003, 04:35:22 pm »

Quote
If only 10% of the 20,000 FSPers joined the local LP, they would more than double the membership in any of the candidate states.  With enough politically involved activists, the FSP could conceivably control the state Republican AND Libertarian parties.

Quote

Sounds good. With such a plan everybody wins! Yeah!  :)
Somewhere here Maynard said the R's only had 1000 card holding members in NH....I sure the other states have a less active Republican party so it definetely is feasible to control both parties. Oh Yeah!
« Last Edit: May 21, 2003, 04:35:53 pm by Dalamar49 »
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Zack Bass

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #47 on: July 02, 2003, 04:30:37 pm »


I've detailed on this thread why I believe even a state with only a half million people will be an enormously difficult state to free.  The libertarian/classical liberal goals of Free Staters go way beyond just some minor changes.  A state with 100,000 would be more our size.


Absolutely correct.  This is an important thing to realize.

Jason's original idea was seriously flawed.  He said that one Activist could influence, what was it, 60-something others.  This may be true in the case of Quebecois who already more or less like the idea of secession, but it does not apply to our reforms, which are unalterably opposed by the vast majority of Americans in every State.
For example, do you think 20,000 Cannibals could influence 1,200,000 Montanans to legalize Cannibalism?  We are about like that.  In fact, the libertarians among us (myself included) would have Cannibalism between consenting adults legalized.

Our only chance is to concentrate into a Majority in one county, if a Western State is chosen, or in one town if New Hampshire is chosen.  Then we can prove to hesitant libertarians that they do have a place where they can vote with their feet, and they will arrive in droves.  Couple of hundred thousand ought to do it... even fewer will be needed in Wyoming, but there will be bloodshed there.

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Mickey

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #48 on: July 09, 2003, 01:01:24 am »

I think that a lot of people are going to be really suprised by the success this project is going to have. Even the die hard FSP true believers are going to be awed.

Will we reach our 20,000 member goal? Definately! We are already a over a year early on our 5000 members by 09-01-04 goal. Membership growth is at 103.5 per week. At that rate, we will meet our 20,000 goal by the 09-01-06 deadline. There is even reason to believe that after the state is selected, growth will accelerate further due to the elimination of uncertainty. We could reach 20,000 a year early!

After the state is selected, people will begin to move early. Maybe 500 will move in the first year after selection and over double the target state's LP membership. By the time 20,000 FSP members is reached, thousands will already be living in the free state and having an enormous impact on state politics. The success of these early-birds will help keep the growth rate high.

Will the migration of libertarians instantly stop when 20,000 is reached? No way! By that time, the growth rate will likely be 200 per week and will keep going. For the whole five years that members will have for the move, more people will keep joining the band wagon.

I don't see the FSP a the last gasp for air of a dying movement. This is the begining of a political phenomina that will last decades. The migration to the first free state will likely continue for twenty years and by the time it's done, over a hundred thousand libertarians will have made the pilgrimage.
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Mickey

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #49 on: July 09, 2003, 01:02:24 am »

Better yet, at some point a second project will be started. I think that somewhere between 15,000 members and 25,000 movers, when success is blindingly obvious, a new project will be started by suporters of the second place state. This won't hurt the impact of the first state, because at some point the intake limit will be met and there will need to be a spill off state. The option of two very different states will help keep the growth rate high.

I am certain that there will eventualy be a third free state and there might be potential for a fourth! You can doubt me all you want, but that's what I think. I think that I is fitting that one of the most populous candidate states will most likely be the first, New Hampshire. In the end, the first state will have the most people move to it.

I think the four states will end up being NH, WY, AK, and DE, close to that order. This will be great because they are spread out around the  US and each will have a large influence on its surrounding states' political climates.
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Mickey

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #50 on: July 09, 2003, 01:04:40 am »

I know you will all doubt me. I don't care. I'm no profit, but I really believe that this is how it will happen. There was a professional poll taken that showed that 16% of Americans are libertarian. That's over 30 million people. If we aimed to put twenty thousand in each of the candidate states (200,000 people) it would take less than 1% of people who are in the northern secter of the Nolan Chart (less than half of the half million people who are libertarian enough to vote for the LP candidate for president every four years). The ten candidate states combined currently have less then 9 million people. It would take less than a third of all libertarians to repopulate all ten.

Sorry, I'm just babbling now. :)
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Zack Bass

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #51 on: July 09, 2003, 01:54:20 pm »


Better yet, at some point a second project will be started. I think that somewhere between 15,000 members and 25,000 movers, when success is blindingly obvious, a new project will be started by suporters of the second place state. This won't hurt the impact of the first state, because at some point the intake limit will be met and there will need to be a spill off state.


I am convinced that this will happen.  I don't agree that it won't affect the first State, because I don't agree that there is any intake limit - we're thinking human beings and we can move as many people into any area as we like, by planning properly (as long as we are not impeded by Rifle-toting Ranchers and State Officials).

If we can live in Space, we can live in Wyoming!

It will overall be a Good Thing that NH becomes a second Free State (or NH first then WY, if you like), because there are a lot of people who won't move to Wyoming until it is transformed, and I'd rather see them concentrated in NH than dispersed about the country as they are now.

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Mickey

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #52 on: July 09, 2003, 04:10:33 pm »

Well... when the second project is initiated, new members will have a choice: join the original project which has already met the minimum move number and begun to make big progress, or join the new project and wait for years. Each new free state may take longer than the previous one due to this choice. The only people likely to join the newer one(s) will be those that are very opposed to living in the already successful target state(s) for some reason or another.
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Mickey

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #53 on: July 09, 2003, 04:32:01 pm »

OK, let's say Wyoming is picked first. Can it take 100,000 new people in 10 years? That would be an increase of 30% + families. I think that either way, NH or WY, there will eventually be a need for an overflow state. Instead of just of just spreading into the surounding states, it would be more stratigic to go with the second place state or a new vote.

Liberty is a precious commodity that is growing ever more scarce and thus the demand is rising among those who recognize its value. Not even low density, spacious Wyoming can take all of the influx of people who are going to want to capitalize on the liberty bargin that migration presents. Not in a short period of time anyways.

This, of course, is all speculation. We'll see when the time comes.
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Zack Bass

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #54 on: July 09, 2003, 04:38:12 pm »


OK, let's say Wyoming is picked first. Can it take 100,000 new people in 10 years? That would be an increase of 30% + families.


That 30% is irrelevant.  It doesn't matter how many are there now.  We can make our own way, and we can do it almost instantly if we plan a little.  Some of us will have money we got from selling our houses, others will get mortgages on their portions of the vast "ranches" we'll establish, there will be financing of new factories and sweatshops from greedy capitalists who are eager to exploit our need.  More power to them!  We can move 100,000 in one year if we want to.
If our problem is how to move in 100,000 Porcupines who are ready to make their homes in Wyoming, we've won.  Nothing will be impossible to us.

« Last Edit: July 09, 2003, 04:44:05 pm by Zack Bass »
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Mickey

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #55 on: July 09, 2003, 05:39:34 pm »

I applaud your optimism :), but I don't know...

100,000 in a year? I'll just take that as sarcasm. If we're going to move in 10,000 a year, those people are going to need houses. We can cunstruct new houses, but that takes man power which is limited in a smaller state (or any state for that matter) thus taking a longer period of time. I doubt that there are enough construction workers in Wyoming to build houses at that rate. I guess I could build my own house, but it'll be a POS. We could all buy mobil homes... are there tornados in Wyoming? ;)

I'm not at all trying to say that Wyoming is too small in population to be the free state. My point is that we are going to be too successful for just one state.

I guess we could get some of the nudists in our midsts to scare off enough of the natives to make room. ;)
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Zack Bass

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #56 on: July 09, 2003, 06:05:43 pm »


100,000 in a year? I'll just take that as sarcasm.


I am dead serious.  Larger populations have moved in a shorter time.

Quote

 If we're going to move in 10,000 a year, those people are going to need houses. We can cunstruct new houses, but that takes man power which is limited in a smaller state (or any state for that matter)


I want everyone to stop and meditate for a while on what just happened here:
There won't be enough jobs.  And there won't be enough manpower.

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Zack Bass

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #57 on: July 09, 2003, 08:17:29 pm »

I just saw a piece on Yogi Berra that had a pertinent quote:

"Nobody comes here anymore, it's too crowded."

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Hank

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #58 on: July 09, 2003, 09:17:43 pm »

Zack,
you said:
Quote
It doesn't matter how many are there now.  We can make our own way, and we can do it almost instantly if we plan a little.  Some of us will have money we got from selling our houses, others will get mortgages on their portions of the vast "ranches" we'll establish, there will be financing of new factories and sweatshops from greedy capitalists who are eager to exploit our need.  More power to them!  We can move 100,000 in one year if we want to.
If our problem is how to move in 100,000 Porcupines who are ready to make their homes in Wyoming, we've won.  Nothing will be impossible to us.
You know, there are not many people with that ambition anymore. They talk about wanting freedom but they want houses readymade for 'em to walk into. Same for jobs.  We don't have enough greedy capitalists among the Porcupines to build enough houses or be employers.  At least they are not showing up on this forum.  It's summer though. Probably too busy building houses to fiddle with internet forums.

I sure wish we had more Otosans.

Otherwise Porcupines will be a thin layer outnumbered by non-liberty-minded people above and below us.
Above?
Yep!
Doctors and plumbers are "above" the average computer tech.
Roofers definitely are. ;)

Below us?
Yep!
Those waitresses, waiters, cooks, store clerks, floor moppers, and construction laborers will be voting too.
With us?
Or against us?
But if them was us?

You know, John has a point. We better round up a bunch of allies in the trades too.  We're gonna need them.  We're gonna need their votes too.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2003, 09:25:12 pm by Hank »
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Mickey

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Re:Is 20,000 enough?
« Reply #59 on: July 09, 2003, 10:23:30 pm »

I want everyone to stop and meditate for a while on what just happened here:
There won't be enough jobs.  And there won't be enough manpower.

Not so fast there buddy. If you look at my post I didn't say anything about jobs.

Look, I think we're sliding into a discussion of which state. That wasn't my point! That wasn't my point! I'm not trying to say that Wyoming has too few people to be the target state. No. And If you wan't to debate the job issue, there are other threads for that.

My point is in reference to the tread topic: Is 20,000 enough?
A) Yes, it is.
B) There are going to be a whole lot more than 20,000. There will be so many that eventually it may be neccessary for some people to begin a second project.

I'm not saying that I will be that person or that the reason to start a second free state is because I may not like the results of the first vote. I'm just trying to convey my optimism to those prospective members who are in doubt. :)
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