Free State Project Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 [6] 7   Go Down

Author Topic: Where do we Stand as of Right Now?  (Read 70369 times)

varrin

  • Former FSP President
  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 999
  • THE air male
    • Varrin's FSP Info Page
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #75 on: September 14, 2003, 11:01:52 pm »

You did it INCORRECTLY, because most people only listed their first/top choice, like I asked them too!  I ranked Idaho like 8th.  

No, *if* I did it incorrectly, that wasn't why.  In a previous post, I listed the rankings of first-choice wins.  The actual vote will *not* be decided in that fashion (and I was not the first person in this thread to point that out).  In my most recent message (before this one) I only used votes that had enough available data to use for the purposes of ranking NH, WY, and ID using Condorcet's method as it will be used for the vote.  My question of whether or not I did it correctly specifically referred to whether or not I implimented Condorcet's method correctly.  

For what it's worth, I *still* don't have enough data about your vote to include it.  At the very minimum, I'd need to know in what order you ranked ID, NH, and WY.  But in a few short weeks, none of this will matter because we'll have access to the actual results ;)

V-

Logged
Departed Fresno, PRC (Peoples Republic of California): October 18, 2004
Arrived Keene, FS (Free State!): October 25, 2004!
To contact me, please use email, not PM here.

jgmaynard

  • FSP Shadow Advertising
  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2288
    • The Light of Alexandria
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #76 on: September 15, 2003, 09:56:48 am »

But keep in mind that these results are dubious at best... There's another similar thread which has WY in the lead, and in both polls, New Hampshire is right on their heels.
But, the sample is not in the least bit random, there aren't enough people being sampled, some results only list first choice, yada, yada...

But you knew that.. ;)

JM

P.S. If everyone who's member number is evenly divisible by 30 would contact me off list with your ranking as voted.... ;)
Logged
The Light of Alexandria By James Maynard

A history of the first 1,000 years of science, and how it changed the ancient world, and our world today.



http://www.lightofalexandria.com

Blain

  • FSP Participant
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 163
  • Liberty or Death!
    • Infowars
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #77 on: September 15, 2003, 05:29:49 pm »

Doesn't JP Sorens favor NH?  
Logged
The following flash movie sums up values.
http://www.isil.org/resources/introduction.swf

"A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares about more than he does his own personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made an

Hank

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 334
  • "The Men That Don't Fit In"
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #78 on: September 15, 2003, 05:36:27 pm »

JP Sorens once stated that if the FSP fell severely short of the 20,000 that a fall back state should be considered. He mentioned several scenarios. The shortest scenario ending up with Wyoming.
Logged
There's A race of men that don't fit in,
A race that can't stay still;
So they break the hearts of kith and kin,
And they roam the world at will.
http://www.internal.org/view_poem.phtml?poemID=295

Blain

  • FSP Participant
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 163
  • Liberty or Death!
    • Infowars
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #79 on: September 15, 2003, 05:53:44 pm »

But there is huge volcano under Yellowstone ready to blow!!!!!
Logged
The following flash movie sums up values.
http://www.isil.org/resources/introduction.swf

"A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares about more than he does his own personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made an

Hank

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 334
  • "The Men That Don't Fit In"
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #80 on: September 15, 2003, 08:54:06 pm »

But there is huge volcano under Yellowstone ready to blow!!!!!

And there is a huge hurricane coming up the coast to NH now!!!!!
Quote
This was originally a Hurricane that heavily impacted North Carolina and dumped heavy rains on New England resulting in a Presidential Declaration of Disaster in NH; FEMA DR-1305-NH with the counties of Belknap, Grafton and Cheshire Designated
From this link to New Hampshire Office of Emergency Management:
New Hampshire Hurricanes
Logged
There's A race of men that don't fit in,
A race that can't stay still;
So they break the hearts of kith and kin,
And they roam the world at will.
http://www.internal.org/view_poem.phtml?poemID=295

PongGod

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 64
  • Live free... and let the socialists die!
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #81 on: September 15, 2003, 11:28:28 pm »

The wife and I both listed New Hampshire first.
Logged
None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free. --Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe

Rearden

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 748
  • We're supposed to be activists, remember?
    • Free State Project
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #82 on: September 16, 2003, 10:55:25 am »

FWIW, the votes listed on the Condorcet poll reveal the following trends of dubious applicability to the larger membership:

15 of 98 voters (15.3%) demonstrated regional polarization in their vote by ranking all states from one region over all states from another.  Of the 15, 12 favored the western states and 3 favored the eastern states.

73 of 98 voters (74.5%) ranked either NH or WY first.  At least on this forum, it is clearly a horse race between those two states, but again it must be noted that the silent majority of members may have a very different idea of the leading state(s).  Of the 73, 40 ranked NH first while 33 gave WY the top spot.  
If we used a simple majority vote system, the results would be NH, WY, ID, MT, DE, AK, ME, SD, and ND.  The current Condorcet results are actually pretty similar.  

The results thus far indicate that if the western partisans had rallied around a single state they likely would have won, but enough have thus far ranked NH higher than at least one of the western states to prevent that from happening.  ID's 8 votes plus MT's 5 votes and SD's 1 vote would have given WY 47 first place votes, obliterating NH.  

Interesting...
« Last Edit: September 16, 2003, 11:19:44 am by Keith Murphy »
Logged
Government can do only one thing: It can break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, "See?  If not for the government you couldn't walk."

Karl

  • Guest
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #83 on: September 16, 2003, 11:24:20 am »

7 out of 98 voters, or 7.1% ranked either NH or WY last.  This may indicate attempts to either vote strategically (member has a misunderstanding of Condorcet) or to vote spitefully, or it may indicate a failure of the voter to adequately research the states.

This group may represent the least thoughtful and/or most difficult members of the FSP.

Logged

DadELK68

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 233
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #84 on: September 16, 2003, 06:48:24 pm »

7 out of 98 voters, or 7.1% ranked either NH or WY last.  This may indicate attempts to either vote strategically (member has a misunderstanding of Condorcet) or to vote spitefully, or it may indicate a failure of the voter to adequately research the states.

This group may represent the least thoughtful and/or most difficult members of the FSP.


I think many of us noticed this in the rankings which have been posted - regardless of other biases and based on all of the information available in these fora, it seems to make little sense to rank either NH or WY last unless it is exactly as you suggest. Other states are equally or less inviting than WY (culturally, economically, politically, etc.) for the large-state and/or Eastern/Metropolitan advocates, and likewise in the case of NH for small-state and/or Western/Rural advocates. For various reasons, both states would seem to be logically in most people's top five or so rankings.

Hopefully among those not active in the polarizing flame-wars between NH and WY, this will be less prominent. I've actively promoted both NH and ID over WY, but in my final ranking WY was close behind (third, until I decided to bump AK just a little higher).
Logged

utahorganics

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2
  • I'm a llama!
    • Freshwater Organics
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #85 on: September 17, 2003, 02:55:10 am »

Wyo
MT
ID
NH
AK
ND
SD
VT
ME
DE
Logged
Fran Tully
State Chair
Libertarian Party Utah

"...It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds..."
 
- Founding Father Samuel Adams

Blain

  • FSP Participant
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 163
  • Liberty or Death!
    • Infowars
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #86 on: September 18, 2003, 10:00:40 pm »

I'll show you a RANKING!

NH
ME
VT
AK
MT
ID
DE
ND
SD
WY
Logged
The following flash movie sums up values.
http://www.isil.org/resources/introduction.swf

"A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares about more than he does his own personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made an

bIlluminati

  • FSP Participant
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 159
  • For freedom
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #87 on: September 23, 2003, 11:19:20 am »

varrin:

You did it correctly as far as you went. It would be correct to add WY>ID=NH for thos who had WY first, but did not list ID or NH, and the same for the other states. This moves ID down some, but I don't know how much.

Someone else compiled 100 votes with complete ballots and got NH WY and ID as the top three, with only 4 votes separating WY and NH. But that thread has been quiet lately, and late voters are a different demographic, and may pay less attention to their 2-4 picks, which are crucial.

In this larger sample, lots of folk have NH>WY or WY>NH as their 1/2 votes. My intuitive opinion is that NH will win, because of lack of research by later voters, but if the late voters are more West coast, either WY or ID could win.
Logged
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.

Rearden

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 748
  • We're supposed to be activists, remember?
    • Free State Project
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #88 on: September 23, 2003, 11:46:54 am »

My intuitive opinion is that NH will win, because of lack of research by later voters...

Or, it will win because many voters did much research -- and concluded that NH is the best state.  I place myself in that category.   ;D

A first-place vote for NH doesn't indicate an uninformed voter, anymore than a first-place vote for WY.  It justs indicates disagreement over the best state.  
Logged
Government can do only one thing: It can break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, "See?  If not for the government you couldn't walk."

Karl

  • Guest
Re:Where do we Stand as of Right Now?
« Reply #89 on: September 23, 2003, 11:55:03 am »

My intuitive opinion is that NH will win, because of lack of research by later voters...

Or, it will win because many voters did much research -- and concluded that NH is the best state.  I place myself in that category.   ;D

A first-place vote for NH doesn't indicate an uninformed voter, anymore than a first-place vote for WY.  It justs indicates disagreement over the best state.  

I think the two biggest beneficiaries of the "minimal research" vote are going to be MT and ME.  Both places share the distinction of being large and thinly populated and full of natural beauty.  They both have the "I'd love to live there!" reputation.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 [6] 7   Go Up