Under 50 people have voted on this thread and a few of you are gloating that "it looks like NH wins!"
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that NH has won. Of the votes posted here, there were 21 that contained enough data to rank NH, ID and WY (I'm now including my vote since I posted all of it a couple posts back). I believe these are the three front runners, though MT may well stand a chance also. But due to lack of data, I could only get 21 good votes. Here's the raw data for those 21 votes:
2 WY=ID>NH
3 WY>ID>NH
3 WY>NH>ID
5 NH>ID>WY
2 NH>WY>ID
6 ID>WY>NH
Here are the total first place votes, first without the ties, then with the ties:
WY: 6 (no ties) 8 (with ties)
ID: 6 (no ties) 8 (with ties)
NH: 7 (no ties) 7 (with ties)
Either way, they're relatively even in first place rankings. However when you run Condorcet's method, there is a clear winner. The winner is *not* NH. Here's the table:
WY ID NH Losses
WY X 8 14 1
ID 11 X 11 0
NH 7 10 X 2
ID comes out undefeated. WY loses to ID. NH (believe it or not) loses to ID *and* WY. How can NH lose to ID *and* WY? Look at the raw votes. 5 of 8 (including ties) WY voters put NH below ID and *all* of the ID votes put NH below WY. ID does well because WY voters are exactly split on the ID/NH ranking but NH voters heavily preferred ID to WY (5 to 2). Hence, ID beats WY (decided by the NH voters) and ID beats NH (decided by the WY voters). WY winds up beating NH primarily because *all* of the ID voters preferred WY to NH.
I suppose it's difficult to predict how people will vote, but outside of this forum (and this has been discussed before) there is one clue as to how people may vote: where they're from. There are 5,000 potential voters. They may not all vote and there's probably no way to predict which of them will simply not vote. But assuming the ratios are correct, I'll go out on a limb here and speculate as to how a few of them will vote. Remember, we don't need to know exactly how they will vote. If (and this is a big 'if') we assume WY, ID, and NH are the front runners, predicting a winner between those three will only require us to predict how people will rank them in relation to each other, not their entire vote or where any specific state falls in their vote.
Also, it's obvious that these are just
pure speculations and that using these numbers is applying a single vote to all the members from a specific state (which will certainly not be the case). I'm going to assume that half of WY-first voters will vote WY>NH>ID and half will vote WY>ID>NH. I'll also assume that all of the ID-first voters will vote ID>WY>NH and that 5 of 7 NH-first voters will vote NH>ID>WY and the other 2 (of 7) will vote NH>WY>ID.
Here's what I think (give or take) will be the majority of first place votes out of these states with more than 100 members:
AZ 112 WY
CA 527 ID
CO 117 WY
FL 307 ID
GA 176 WY
IL 140 NH
MA 113 NH
MI 113 WY
NC 145 NH
NH 154 NH
NJ 121 NH
NY 193 NH
OH 112 NH
OR 102 ID
PA 206 NH
TX 274 WY
VA 123 NH
WA 170 ID
WY = 792
ID = 1106
NH = 1307
WY>NH>ID = 396
WY>ID>NH = 396
NH>ID>WY = 934
NH>WY>ID = 373
ID>WY>NH = 1106
The table looks like:
WY ID NH Losses
WY X 1165 1898 1
ID 2040 X 1502 1
NH 1307 1703 X 1
There is a tie with one loss each. The three losses were: WY<ID=1165<2040, ID<NH=1502<1703, and NH<WY=1307<1898. The smallest magnitude loss is ID<NH hence ID wins the tie and the competition.
I'm lousy at predicting things, but I got a buck says it's going to be closer than this thread illustrates. As you can see from the above (obviously highly realistic

) table, a few votes one way or another could push any one of the states over the edge. Also keep in mind that with the highest number of first-place votes, NH did *not* win the election.
Okay, I've wasted enough time on this one..

If more people want to post their entire rankings, I'll check back and update the score...
V-
P.S. Did I do it all correctly? Any Condorcet expert, feel free to critique my work here (the tables and outcomes, not the guesses as to how people might vote

))))