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Author Topic: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...  (Read 5401 times)

Mcmercier

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14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« on: March 20, 2015, 02:12:03 pm »

Currently, on Zillow, there are 16,544 properties in NH available - 12,377 of these are homes, the remaining are undeveloped land. http://www.zillow.com/nh/

If the full pledge target of 20,000 movers is reached, given that only 1,713 people already live in NH, that means 18,287 people will still need to enter the market. Even if we were to assume these pledgers are all couples, who will live together, the increased market demand for over 9,000 homes will create havoc on the current real estate market. Supply will plummet, valuations will rocket.

Has anyone considered the financial impact that triggering the move will have on NH real estate prices? It will be significant. If you are at the back end of that move, you will have to spend significantly more money to move than those at the start. In fact, I would suggest that people begin investing in NH real estate, if they actually believe that once the move is triggered a significant number of pledgers will move to the state. Pre-existing owners of property will benefit handsomely. Real estate agents should do very well also.

What is FSP doing, if anything, to help facilitate this transition? Under supply of homes, and even more so of employment, could prove to be a significant barrier to achieving the end goal of the project.

« Last Edit: March 20, 2015, 02:34:45 pm by Mcmercier »
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freedomroad

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2015, 03:55:59 pm »

Great first post. Interesting thought.

My guess is that when you account for all of the factors, maybe only a total of 10,000 adults will be living in NH 10 years after the move was triggered because of the FSP.

Let's not forget about apartments, tiny homes, trailers, mobile home, motels, and dwellings that aren't around now but will have been built by 2025. There are 1,000s of people open to the idea of letting a free staters rent 1 room in there house.

All of these folks moving to NH will stimulate the economy, creating lots of jobs.

If free stater reduce regulations on business, planning and zoning, that will reduce costs and improve the economy.

NH already has the lowest unemployment rate in the Eastern U.S. Border state VT has the 2nd lowest unemployment rate in the East.
https://freestateproject.org/blogs/nhhaslowestunemploymentrate

I agree with you that housing prices might increase because of the FSP. It makes sense to move early or become a real estate agent in NH :) Right now, the growth rate is actually a lot higher in MA, though.

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KBCraig

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2015, 10:31:48 am »

It's not like there will be 20,000 people showing up on the same day.

Best guess is that maybe half of those who signed will move within five years, if ever. Maybe half of those will be families. Many of the singles will find themselves in room-sharing arrangements.

I seriously doubt there will be a need for more than 3,000 properties, and that will be spread out over years.
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Pat K

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2015, 08:14:16 pm »

I really hope there is such a large move that this becomes a problem.
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"It's not all gonna be candy and blow-jobs"-Dale



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Rivera_family

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2015, 11:18:53 am »

You also have to consider that sometimes there is more than 1 mover per household.  My husband and I are both registered so that's 2 movers that will only take 1 house. 
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TJames

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2015, 01:05:56 pm »

When I get there I plan on making it easy for future movers.
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MikeyL

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2015, 08:16:36 pm »

Zillow isnt the only listing site.
Houses go on and off the market all the time.
New houses are built all the time.

What the heck kind of post is this ???
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freedomroad

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2015, 11:23:31 pm »

I was just on Zillow for a few minutes. Lots of places under $30k in Berlin. Some with 4 bedrooms. You wouldn't even need a car to get around.
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KBCraig

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2015, 06:39:59 pm »

I was just on Zillow for a few minutes. Lots of places under $30k in Berlin. Some with 4 bedrooms. You wouldn't even need a car to get around.

In much of Berlin, having a car creates problems, because the streets are very steep, and you have to worry about snow removal and snow storage (and there almost no houses with garages).
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MikeyL

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2015, 02:23:00 pm »

I was just on Zillow for a few minutes. Lots of places under $30k in Berlin. Some with 4 bedrooms. You wouldn't even need a car to get around.

In much of Berlin, having a car creates problems, because the streets are very steep, and you have to worry about snow removal and snow storage (and there almost no houses with garages).

Berlin is walkable??? Thats a huge selling point!
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KBCraig

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2015, 09:44:29 pm »

I was just on Zillow for a few minutes. Lots of places under $30k in Berlin. Some with 4 bedrooms. You wouldn't even need a car to get around.

In much of Berlin, having a car creates problems, because the streets are very steep, and you have to worry about snow removal and snow storage (and there almost no houses with garages).

Berlin is walkable??? Thats a huge selling point!

It all depends on your definition, of course. Shopping options are limited within walking distance, but even the Walmart Supercenter (technically in Gorham) is within walking distance for those willing to hoof it.

There is one convenience store and a couple of restaurants east of the river (which is where much of the cheaper housing is found; not that it's much more expensive on the west side). The other stores and restaurants are mostly clustered along Main/Pleasant streets, as are the various .gov offices you might deal with. Hardware stores, discount (Family Dollar), small shops, and variety stores (by the New England definition; they're more like bodegas) are all within a block or two of Main/Pleasant, following along the west side of the river.

Speaking of .gov, the Berlin DMV office recently moved to Gorham, and that office has now been proposed for closure. Berlin residents would have to travel 40 miles to Twin Mountain for a license or ID. If that sort of thing concerns you, of course...  ;)

I would say that if someone lives within the area bounded by 110, 16, Fagin's Pub, and the Berlin High School, they would find walkable shopping for daily needs. East of the river, if you lived within 3-4 blocks of the junction of Unity and Mason, you'd have all of the same with just the inconvenience of crossing the bridge at Mason Street.
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freedomroad

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Re: 14,864 pledgers yet to move, only 12,377 homes available...
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2015, 11:31:05 pm »

I was just on Zillow for a few minutes. Lots of places under $30k in Berlin. Some with 4 bedrooms. You wouldn't even need a car to get around.

In much of Berlin, having a car creates problems, because the streets are very steep, and you have to worry about snow removal and snow storage (and there almost no houses with garages).

Berlin is walkable??? Thats a huge selling point!

I've seen plenty of housing near Main St. In the winter, I don't know. You could always get a snowmobile :)
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