Free State Project Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7   Go Down

Author Topic: Hate to bring bad news, but....  (Read 22820 times)

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2015, 11:54:57 am »

No. What I said was snow precipitation, not depth. Depth isn't massively important for aggriculture as it is simply a binary data point (either there is snow or there isn't) restricting the growing season. Further, I said "until 2022," which is when the solar cycle should start to rebound if this isn't a manuder minimum type solar slowdown. If it is a grand solar minimum then temperatures in the northeast won't start to rebound until 2040 at the earliest. Thus the final data point of relevance to this discussion would come in the fall of 2021. By then it should be abundantly obvious how solar cycle 25 is developing.

Essentially, the unit of measure in contention would just be the total number of days between the last snow precipitation in the spring and the first snow precipitation in the fall and what I am hypothesizing is that that data point will be at least 40 days less in the summer of 2021 than in the summer of 2015. I would rather use Manchester-Boston regional airport data (since that captures the municipality with the largest population) this spring and fall as the baseline. Late snows in the spring limit planting time and early snows in the fall can decimate harvest yields. Strictly speaking though, the real nugget of merit that aggricultural economists follow is the window of time between hard freezes because that is the true growing season.
Logged

Russell Kanning

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
    • We must be the change we wish to see in the world.
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2015, 04:20:16 pm »

funny
yea NH won the vote back in (what was it) 2003
if it gets a little colder each year .... we can join PatK in Florida during the winter .... then storm the beaches of Cuba after that
Logged
The NH Underground - "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -Mahatma Gandhi
New Hampshire Free Press - The Nonviolent Revolution Starts Here

"Resolve to serve no more, and you are at once freed. I do not ask that you place hands upon the tyrant to topple him over, but simply that you support him no longer; then you will behold him, like a great Colossus whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break in pieces." -- Etienne de La Boetie, The Politics of Obedience: The Discourse of Voluntary Servitude

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #32 on: February 19, 2015, 06:22:02 pm »

Given the data on Florida, and the fact that pretty much everyone else in the north east would head there too, I dunno how great Florida would be either. Supposedly the Seminole indians, indigenous to central and southern Florida have legends in their lore of the everglades freezing over and and "white rain" falling every year for a couple of decades. Climate wise, the Pacific NW wouldn't be bad if not for the fact that Fukushima is going to continue belching radioactive cesium into the atmosphere and bleeding it into the Pacific Ocean for the next couple centuries. They are already reporting mysterious birth defects in central Washnington and, even more ominously, the three main orca pods in Pugeot Sound haven't had a live calf birth in 4 years (usually there are a handfull every year). Of course nobody will attribute any of that to radioactive cesium going up the food chain and aggregating in the salmon, but see if cans of tuna from pre-2011 don't turn into collector's items.

I'm sticking with the desert SW/southern rockies myself. This last summer was super mild here with the fewest number of tripple digit temperatures I can remember, and we've had enough rain this "winter" (it's never really winter here in the sense of having months and months of cold) that wild grasses are actually growing sufficiently to be a nuisance.

Back when I was in HS it NEVER snowed here. It has snowed here, with at least trace accumulations, four of the last five winters.
Logged

JasonPSorens

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5646
  • Neohantonum liberissimum erit.
    • My Homepage
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #33 on: February 19, 2015, 07:54:24 pm »

No. What I said was snow precipitation, not depth. Depth isn't massively important for aggriculture as it is simply a binary data point (either there is snow or there isn't) restricting the growing season. Further, I said "until 2022," which is when the solar cycle should start to rebound if this isn't a manuder minimum type solar slowdown. If it is a grand solar minimum then temperatures in the northeast won't start to rebound until 2040 at the earliest. Thus the final data point of relevance to this discussion would come in the fall of 2021. By then it should be abundantly obvious how solar cycle 25 is developing.

Essentially, the unit of measure in contention would just be the total number of days between the last snow precipitation in the spring and the first snow precipitation in the fall and what I am hypothesizing is that that data point will be at least 40 days less in the summer of 2021 than in the summer of 2015. I would rather use Manchester-Boston regional airport data (since that captures the municipality with the largest population) this spring and fall as the baseline. Late snows in the spring limit planting time and early snows in the fall can decimate harvest yields. Strictly speaking though, the real nugget of merit that aggricultural economists follow is the window of time between hard freezes because that is the true growing season.

I'm fine with that, but we need a data source. Didn't see that information on the NOAA dataset. IMO, if what you're interested in is growing season, then we should look at frost-free days. If you can find a data source for that, I'm happy to bet the under on 40 fewer frost-free days in 2021 than now.
Logged
"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #34 on: February 19, 2015, 11:29:52 pm »

How about we just use sub-freezing temperature readings for Manchester-Boston airport since that should (reasonably) capture the scope of the phenomenon in question?

We take a baseline for the summer of 2015 with total number of days between the last low below freezing in the spring and the first low below freezing in the fall and then repeat it in 2021. If the delta between the two years is less than 40 days then you win. If the delta is 40 or more, then I win.

Does that sound reasonable?
Logged

JasonPSorens

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5646
  • Neohantonum liberissimum erit.
    • My Homepage
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2015, 07:57:13 pm »

Sure, that sounds fine. Now, if you're worried about an unusual year skewing the results, I'd also be happy to look at change in three-year averages (say, 2013-2015 average compared to 2020-2022 average). Up to you.

What stakes? $50?

Before we finalize the bet, please let me know your name & contact info, by PM if you like. :) I'm a public figure so you'll always be able to get ahold of me and shame me if necessary if I don't pay up. ;)
Logged
"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2015, 12:00:48 pm »

I'm not all that worried about one year of data skewing it all that much. In all honesty, from what I have read about what solar/sun spot models are predicting for solar cycle 25, I feel like I am under-selling what the summer of 2021 could look like. 2021 sounds like it is a long way off, but it'll get here sooner than you think.

As far as contact info, I have had this e-mail address since undergrad and I'm the only person I know of with this name in the US.

$50 is fine, though I think we should specify "$50 in US Federal Reserve Notes."
Logged

Russell Kanning

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
    • We must be the change we wish to see in the world.
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #37 on: February 21, 2015, 10:39:17 pm »

So where do you see yourself living in the next few years?
Logged
The NH Underground - "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -Mahatma Gandhi
New Hampshire Free Press - The Nonviolent Revolution Starts Here

"Resolve to serve no more, and you are at once freed. I do not ask that you place hands upon the tyrant to topple him over, but simply that you support him no longer; then you will behold him, like a great Colossus whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break in pieces." -- Etienne de La Boetie, The Politics of Obedience: The Discourse of Voluntary Servitude

JasonPSorens

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5646
  • Neohantonum liberissimum erit.
    • My Homepage
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #38 on: February 22, 2015, 10:23:10 am »

I'm not all that worried about one year of data skewing it all that much. In all honesty, from what I have read about what solar/sun spot models are predicting for solar cycle 25, I feel like I am under-selling what the summer of 2021 could look like. 2021 sounds like it is a long way off, but it'll get here sooner than you think.

As far as contact info, I have had this e-mail address since undergrad and I'm the only person I know of with this name in the US.

$50 is fine, though I think we should specify "$50 in US Federal Reserve Notes."

OK, that all sounds fine - it's a bet! :)
Logged
"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #39 on: February 26, 2015, 12:55:02 am »

I see myself living pretty much anywhere south of central Illinois.

There is a broad spectrum of perspectives on where the climate is "really" going from dalton minimum, to maunder minimum, to mini-ice age, to full on ice age.

Given how many times the Federal Government has been caught lying over the years, I've found that it's best to just assume that whatever they're saying is 100% incorrect, and the truth is both the exact opposite of what they're saying and it is at the far end of the spectrum on just how bad it is.

Therefore, given NOAA's history of being caught absolutely lying their pants on fire off, I'm just assuming we're heading for a full on ice age. If not, I'll wait until 2021 to sell my rental to a retiree that likes to putter around. My guess is that either way, come 2021 the baby boomers will be in full swing looking for some place warm to rest their bones.
Logged

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2015, 03:46:07 pm »

As many as 2000 all time low records for March 6th may be broken in the US between today and tomorrow.

When I checked the solar viewer this morning, there isn't a single sun spot visible. Not one. Not even a pin prick. It's like looking at an unblemeshed giant yellow egg yolk.
Logged

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2015, 11:16:47 am »

Per the bet.....

I checked the monthly lows and the extended forecast.

Since the extended forecast shows lows going up solidly into the 40's into early May, it looks like the last day with a low below freezing will be the one for the year.

According to Accuweather's monthly high/low calendar for Manchester, NH, 4/9 was the last day to record a low below 32.

So the count of days begins until fall.
Logged

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #42 on: April 25, 2015, 11:18:19 am »

Oh, and by the way. 4/9 is 6 days later than average.
Logged

Russell Kanning

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
    • We must be the change we wish to see in the world.
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #43 on: May 03, 2015, 12:43:14 pm »

it was a cold winter ..... start your count in late september :)
Logged
The NH Underground - "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -Mahatma Gandhi
New Hampshire Free Press - The Nonviolent Revolution Starts Here

"Resolve to serve no more, and you are at once freed. I do not ask that you place hands upon the tyrant to topple him over, but simply that you support him no longer; then you will behold him, like a great Colossus whose pedestal has been pulled away, fall of his own weight and break in pieces." -- Etienne de La Boetie, The Politics of Obedience: The Discourse of Voluntary Servitude

AZViking

  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 52
Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2015, 01:46:13 pm »

Russell - Well, based on the timing from the spring equinox, the next day with a low below freezing should come on or about November 13th or so. Depending on how warm the summer is and if the rivers feeding the arctic thaw early or late, it might be another week or two beyond that. Thus, ya got about 6 months. That there was still snow falling over wide parts of Canada last week says that it could be sooner than that.

Also, there was an interesting article linked on Drudge Report today. It discusses stats from the current solar cycle and provides some interesting context for what I wrote previously.

http://vencoreweather.com/2015/04/30/845-am-the-sun-is-now-virtually-blank-during-the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-more-than-a-century/

If solar cycle 25 continues the downward trend (and solar filament velocity models say that that will most definately be the case) then get your moon boots and parkas while they're still cheap and outdoor outfitters are clearing inventory due to "global warming."
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7   Go Up