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Author Topic: Hate to bring bad news, but....  (Read 22824 times)

AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2014, 10:02:38 pm »

1Day....


Something to ponder.

There is this paradigm of thought referred to as Maslow's heirarchy of needs pyramid. Where do you think liberty as a social institution resides on that pyramid?
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TJames

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2014, 10:21:31 pm »

A small rise in CO2 creates a slight warming that releases more CO2 and methane from melted permafrost and the biosphere. (A sudden rise in CO2 could dry and kill plants.) It's called the feedback loop and it is what we want to avoid.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice-basic.htm

http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2014, 12:01:27 am »

I am well aware of the AGW CO2 driven feedback loop hypothesis and it has nothing to do with reality, thus my point about even raising the topic being of dubious merit.

Like I said in my previous post. Just run a search for "volcanism chart" over the last century and look at the graph. Take that chart and look at the increase in atmospheric CO2. Any thoughts on the probable R^2 if one were to run a regression on CO2 in the atmosphere over the last century with lagged volcanic activity as the independant variable? It's one hell of alot higher than doing the same OLS regression on global temperatures with CO2 as the independant variable.

Based on ice core and sea floor sediment data, there is almost no coorelation between atmospheric CO2 and global temperatures.

NOAA and the IPCC have been caught faking their data repeatedly. The interesting question is what might they be trying to hide and why are they so insistant on hiding it when caught lying?
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TJames

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #18 on: December 05, 2014, 03:43:06 am »

Right now my knowledge is more logical than scientific. I have not studied temperatures and patterns. I simply understand the greenhouse effect. CO2 absorbs inferred, it's that simple. It can get more complicated because other planets can shift our orbit but that has been accounted for. Next thing you know some creationist conservative argues that CO2 can't be a greenhouse gas because it sinks and they completely destroy the merit of their camp. The libertarian camp should take a different approach, shut up to outsiders, and learn to do science. Remember, CO2 absorbs IR.
I have these people saying you are wrong about volcanic emission. Volcanoes can cause a warmer climate... or this http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanic-influence-on-lia.html
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2014, 07:04:49 am »

Look, I am a simple stupid little man with some small measure of grey matter between the earlobes. Given the fact that you have 5 stars and the FSPF has my ISP I can only assume that you have both googled my humble hobbit hole as well as gazed in fond asperation (on google maps) at my FJ-60 landcruiser that parks itself outside my door while glaring in glorious growling "fuck you" defiance at any and all proselytes of entropy.

That being said, what's coming the next 18 months?

If we're at 0 sunspots by spring of 2016 then that's too late. Negligible sunspots by late spring 2015 is gonna be rough. A true grand solar minimum would prove catastrophic for anyone further north than 40 degrees N or so.

I get the point about CO2 acting as a greenhouse gas. I just wonder if the fact that CO2 is only about 5% of all greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is registering. The largest greenhouse gas by far...is water. What happens to water on a spinning spere that is cooling? It accrues at the poles. Now as water accrues at the poles of a geothermal spinning liquid iron globe, is it possible that the shift in mass of atospheric water as it hardens into ice at the poles, it might result in increased geothermal activity of said globe at specific pressure points? Say for example the exact southern egdes of the North American Craton?
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TJames

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2014, 02:10:32 pm »

Water is a concern of climate change. Dark ice free ocean allows more solar energy to enter our system vaporizing more water and melting more ice, but the climate effects of water are short term while CO2 is the spine water follows. If fog accumulates at the poles and freezes then it could have an albedo effect, not necessarily a stable climate though and anyway in the near future the world may be ice free like it may have been in the late Cretaceous, as long as it is stable it is okay.
Good point about increasing ice affecting magma. I will read up on that.
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W6CSA

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2014, 04:20:06 pm »

Ok um first off this is not the first time up north y'all have had a record winter. Anybody remember 1816? (The summer that never came and for those of y'all unfamiliar with history please feel free to wiki it.) Now as far as the climate I will admit that moving to New Hampshire took some of my friends back when I told them I was moving (haven't moved yet but maybe 2015?) being as I am a native of Mississippi and have lived most of my life in the deep south (South Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana). As far as the ice age well I don't see that happening. While last year here in Mississippi at my home literally half a city block off of the Gulf of Mexico I did have icicles for the first time in my life hanging off of my roof this winter has been quite mild. This is also probably the first time I have been able to wear shorts and not freeze my ass off in December as it has been warm (70's instead of it's usual 40s and 50s).

Case in point just because of geological history says it has happened (mind you the ice age got to the Caribbean as well) doesn't mean you can't enjoy freedom and liberty while you're still alive. Oh and when you think about that think about this. Unless you want to move to Grand Cayman (who wouldn't?) you will be affected by an ice age no matter where you are.

Just my two cents worth.

Y'all have a nice day.
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Liberty with a Southern Accent

Bazil

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2014, 11:41:22 pm »

I agree on the CO2.  CO2 increase is a self defeating cycle.  The more CO2 there is the better plants grow.  The better plants grow the faster the CO2 is cycled back into the earth.  A self solving problem.

About Ice ages (Actually glacial periods, we have technically been in an ice age for the last 3 million years, since there have been year round glaciers on Earth since that time) evidence shows they do come on slow.  The erroneous idea they come on fast was perpetuated by Al Gore's movie The Day After Tomorrow.  If you look at the interglacial graph on this page you can see that interglacial periods end fast, but glacial periods come on slow and erratically.  Here's a quote " Records show that ice ages typically develop slowly, whereas they end more abruptly. Glacials and interglacials within an ice age display this same trend."  Looking at the graphs you'll see it looks like we are near another glacial period, however it looks like the ice age we are in is set to end soon.  In which case instead of slowly lower temps over the new few thousand years going into another glacial period we may see much higher temps over the next few centuries and beyond for the next few million years.
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #24 on: February 18, 2015, 01:06:10 pm »

I heard you were havving a blizzard on the news. So I thought, "mmmmm Blizzards." Then I walked barefoot down to Dairy Queen to get a Heath Bar/Oreo Blizzard, which I am now eating and thinking "mmmmm Blizzards."

Seriously though, check out the magnetic readings on the solar polar fields.

wso.stanford.edu/polar.html

Scroll all the way to the bottom. Based on the readings, the north solar pole finally flipped to positive (roughly 3.25 years late) with the reading back on 1/17 and the most recent reading is in double figures at +18. This implies that the magnetic pole reversal has finally finished, that sun-spot numbers should begin to decline dramatically, and that is in fact what we are seeing with the data on helio-viewers. December 2014 topped out at 78 and based on watching daily, not only are current sun spots far fewer than in December, they are also far smaller. January will probably come in somewhere in the 45-55 SSN range with Feb and March probably half that. This doesn't even capture the real story either. The sunspots currently visible are mostly absolutely tiny pin-pricks with limited magnetic complexity and non-existant CMEs. Simply put, this is a star in need of a viagra.

As I wrote in a previous post, historically, whenever there is a significant delay in the polar reversal from the 11 year norm, the subsequent solar cycle is significantly weaker than average. 3.25 years late is fairly significant and very much the outlier for existing data (NASA has only been collecting solid data since the 70s but given known solar physics, pole reversals can be approximated by sun spot data going back a couple hundred years and longer with chinese sun spot data.)

Last spring it snowed in Chicago the first week of may. Last fall it snowed in Wyoming the second week of August. One concern I have is that by the time the news papers finally admit that global warming is a complete hoax and that we are entering a maunder minimum, it will already be abundantly obvious to everyone already.

If monthly SSNs fall of as rapidly as anticipated then April-June will be in the 10-20 range, and the ice won't fully break on the great lakes until late June to early July.

For those interested, note on your calendar this year when the last snow falls on your lawn this year and then note when the first snow falls next fall. If the SSN model for climate change has merit then you should be able to take those dates and then shorten the summer on each end by 4 to 7 days (so 4 to 7 days later snow in spring and then another 4 to 7 days earlier snow in fall) each year from 2016 until 2022.
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JasonPSorens

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #25 on: February 18, 2015, 03:48:13 pm »

I'll take even odds on the other side of that shorter-summer bet. Interested?
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #26 on: February 18, 2015, 06:36:01 pm »

With each of the last three winters getting progressively worse and growing in both intensity and seasonal cold records, the well documented fact that NOAA has been caught repeatedly falsifying their data (to make it look like their already debunked CO2 climate models have any merit), and the fact that it looks like the Great Lakes will hit one of the top 5 in % frozen over by February next weekend, this doesn't fell like gambling.

Which weather station did you want to use for snow-fall precipitation?
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #27 on: February 18, 2015, 07:05:41 pm »

If I'm half right (2-4 days shorter summer bookends) then the consequences for global agriculture will be significant. If this really is the beginning of a manunder minimum then I could double those estimates (1 to 2 weeks) and still be in the ballpark.
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JasonPSorens

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #28 on: February 19, 2015, 10:43:57 am »

With each of the last three winters getting progressively worse and growing in both intensity and seasonal cold records, the well documented fact that NOAA has been caught repeatedly falsifying their data (to make it look like their already debunked CO2 climate models have any merit), and the fact that it looks like the Great Lakes will hit one of the top 5 in % frozen over by February next weekend, this doesn't fell like gambling.

Which weather station did you want to use for snow-fall precipitation?

Why don't we use the largest city in NH: Manchester? NOAA produces a dataset on "Number of days with snow depth > 1 in." That sounds about right. So you say summer will be shorter on each end by at least 4 days each year for six years, between 2016 and 2022. So by 2022, number of days with snow depth should increase by at least 4 X 2 X 6 = 48 if you're right. So if Number of days with snow depth > 1 in. increases by 48 days or more between now and 2022, you win; otherwise, I win. Does that sound good?
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

JasonPSorens

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #29 on: February 19, 2015, 10:49:09 am »

Here's the NOAA link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/ANNUAL/locations/CITY:US330006/detail When I download the snow depth data, I get multiple weather stations. Why don't we use Concord Municipal Airport? It's the most interior, coldest station. And to be clear, the increase of 48 days of snow depth is for 2022 as a whole compared to 2015 as a whole.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism
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