Free State Project Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Value of a vote  (Read 4645 times)

EMOR

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 351
  • I'm a llama!
Value of a vote
« on: July 08, 2003, 02:17:33 pm »

Population wise it has been established that less than 9,000 porcupines in Wyoming is equal to 20,000 in NH, less than half. In NH to win a house majority it would take 400,000+ votes, while in Wyoming it would take just over 50,000 votes, about 1/8th.

With just porcupine votes at the 20,000 level, we can attain about 20% of the house in Wyoming or 12 seats. In NH that same 20,000 votes equates to 2.5% or 10 seats in the house.

Wyoming:12 out of 60 , or NH: 10 out of 400. Which is more powerful? Of course this does not take into account any other voters.

Any thoughts?
Logged
WY>SD>AK>VT>ND>DE>MT>ID>NH>ME

Sebastian

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 535
  • Elderado
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2003, 02:30:29 pm »

Will the 12 out of 60 seats in Wyoming turn into 31 out of 60 quicker than the 10 out of 400 in New Hampshire will turn into 201 out of 400?

(the numbers scream 'yes', but there are many other factors that have to be taken into account)
Logged
Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for yourself.

freedomroad

  • Guest
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2003, 02:34:00 pm »

Will the 12 out of 60 seats in Wyoming turn into 31 out of 60 quicker than the 10 out of 400 in New Hampshire will turn into 201 out of 400?

(the numbers scream 'yes', but there are many other factors that have to be taken into account)

I never thought about that.  Yes, indeed, the numbers do scream  ;D
Logged

EMOR

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 351
  • I'm a llama!
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2003, 02:35:22 pm »

According to Jason the fusion voting is only good to get a few voted, not a majority. At least that is my interpertation of his post.

As to your question, I think it would be easier to get the extra 30,000 votes in Wyoming than to get the extra 380,000 votes in NH to get the majority we need in the house. That is the bottom line.
Logged
WY>SD>AK>VT>ND>DE>MT>ID>NH>ME

jgmaynard

  • FSP Shadow Advertising
  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2288
    • The Light of Alexandria
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2003, 03:47:20 pm »

In real world politics, caucuses count for a heck of a lot. NH's state rep single member districts only contain ~ 3089 people.... District 12 has less than 3000.
Multi seat districts (which all districts over ~6k have) will allow us to run multiple candidates in the same district. NOTE: The same activists working for one candidate can canvas for all candidates in that district at once, multiplying the effectiveness of our activists.
The idea of fusion is also already proven to be highly successful.... Of the 59 candidates who ran fusion campaigns in 2002 in NH, ALL 59 won. Getting our candidates on the ballot as fusion candidates will be as easy as getting just 10 write in votes in the primary. The two old parties can't find enough people to run most of the time; D's would rather vote for us than R's, and R's would rather vote for us than D's. "Hi.. You have 14 candidates to vote for, but only 10 candidates from your party. Would you consider writing us in for your additional 4 votes?" is all it will take.
Most state rep races only cost about $500 to run.... One rep is even proud of the fact that he has never spent a nickle on his campaign.... Another, an 18 year old straight out of high school, got elected after spending only $40.
AND the districts are so much smaller than many other states, that canvassing will only take about ~ 1/100th of the time (Michelle has the exact data on this).

Walking into the state house doesn't get any easier than it is in New Hampshire.

We know. We're the ones who have done it before.

JM
Logged
The Light of Alexandria By James Maynard

A history of the first 1,000 years of science, and how it changed the ancient world, and our world today.



http://www.lightofalexandria.com

Sebastian

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 535
  • Elderado
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2003, 03:50:44 pm »

Quote
The idea of fusion is also already proven to be highly successful.... Of the 59 candidates who ran fusion campaigns in 2002 in NH, ALL 59 won.
How long has fusion been around? Was 2002 the first year that fusion was so successfully used?

I've heard some concerns that other parties may start focusing on fusion more as well in coming years...
Logged
Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for yourself.

EMOR

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 351
  • I'm a llama!
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2003, 03:54:06 pm »

In real world politics, caucuses count for a heck of a lot. NH's state rep single member districts only contain ~ 3089 people.... District 12 has less than 3000.
Multi seat districts (which all districts over ~6k have) will allow us to run multiple candidates in the same district. NOTE: The same activists working for one candidate can canvas for all candidates in that district at once, multiplying the effectiveness of our activists.
The idea of fusion is also already proven to be highly successful.... Of the 59 candidates who ran fusion campaigns in 2002 in NH, ALL 59 won. Getting our candidates on the ballot as fusion candidates will be as easy as getting just 10 write in votes in the primary. The two old parties can't find enough people to run most of the time; D's would rather vote for us than R's, and R's would rather vote for us than D's. "Hi.. You have 14 candidates to vote for, but only 10 candidates from your party. Would you consider writing us in for your additional 4 votes?" is all it will take.
Most state rep races only cost about $500 to run.... One rep is even proud of the fact that he has never spent a nickle on his campaign.... Another, an 18 year old straight out of high school, got elected after spending only $40.
AND the districts are so much smaller than many other states, that canvassing will only take about ~ 1/100th of the time (Michelle has the exact data on this).

Walking into the state house doesn't get any easier than it is in New Hampshire.

We know. We're the ones who have done it before.

JM

59 won but how many votes did it take for those 59 victories?
In Wyoming the last election over 40,000 votes went to the LP while in NH only 39,000.

So add the 40,000 to our 20,000 that makes 60,000+ votes from the start. We need just 50,000 votes to attain a majority.

In NH 39,000 votes plus our 20,000 equals almost 60,000 votes. We still need 340,000 more votes to attain a majority.

We could move into Wyoming and within a couple of years have a full majority of the house with some work. In NH that would be a much larger task.
Logged
WY>SD>AK>VT>ND>DE>MT>ID>NH>ME

jgmaynard

  • FSP Shadow Advertising
  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2288
    • The Light of Alexandria
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2003, 04:01:27 pm »

Answer a question then if you would....

If it is so easy to elect Libs to the state house in WY, and so tough in NH, how come we have done it several times in NH, and it's never been done in WY?

JM
Logged
The Light of Alexandria By James Maynard

A history of the first 1,000 years of science, and how it changed the ancient world, and our world today.



http://www.lightofalexandria.com

EMOR

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 351
  • I'm a llama!
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2003, 04:49:42 pm »

Answer a question then if you would....

If it is so easy to elect Libs to the state house in WY, and so tough in NH, how come we have done it several times in NH, and it's never been done in WY?

JM
You have to remember that the LP itself is has not been around for as long as the old parties. In Wyoming it is relatively in it's initial stages of becoming a major party.
To get even further into it, I like many others in the west have been Republican, loyaly, but the Republican Party has alienated so many of us. Hell we voted heavily for Perot because of this alienation. This disenchantment has led many of us to give up on politics. Then the LP came along. When I first heard about it myself I thought "this is the way it ought to be". I have to admit I have only been a Libertarian for a few years now, much as the same I would think of many out west. The people are getting on the band wagon out here and we welcome the FSP to help us make the government the way it should be.

Sorry about the rant.
Logged
WY>SD>AK>VT>ND>DE>MT>ID>NH>ME

EMOR

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 351
  • I'm a llama!
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2003, 04:54:27 pm »

Your post gave me goose bumps.  8)
« Last Edit: July 09, 2003, 10:11:36 am by EMOR »
Logged
WY>SD>AK>VT>ND>DE>MT>ID>NH>ME

Rearden

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 748
  • We're supposed to be activists, remember?
    • Free State Project
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2003, 06:29:04 pm »

From the other thread
another district size measure

The least number of votes to elect a majority in the New Hampshire House.
401,443 votes in NH  (398,135 was up through the 200th seat)

The least number of votes to elect a majority in the Wyoming House.
50,360 votes in WY

The average number of winning votes in Wyoming's 31 lowest vote districts is 1,625.

What would 50,360 votes win the Porcupines in New Hampshire?
50,263 votes won the 43 "easiest" (lowest vote) House seats.
That's 11% of the House -- a nice size for a caucus
but the same number of votes could win a majority in Wyoming.

Joe,

How did you adjust for the fact that in NH's multi-member districts, each voter gets as many votes as there are seats, whereas in WY, each voter gets only one vote?  In other words, if you assume an average district size of 5 (I'm pulling this number out of a hat), then those 401k votes came from only ~80k voters. 

All I'm saying is: it would appear that you are comparing apples and oranges.                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Logged
Government can do only one thing: It can break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, "See?  If not for the government you couldn't walk."

Rearden

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 748
  • We're supposed to be activists, remember?
    • Free State Project
Re:Value of a vote
« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2003, 07:08:33 pm »

Keith,
In a district with 8 representatives, does a voter get to give all of their votes to one candidate?
No.
They have to vote for eight different candidates.
My numbers show how many discrete, individual voters had to support a candidate.
Winning even the 14th placed position in a 14-seat district in New Hampshire requires 5,244 people to vote for that candidate
NOT
375 voters each giving that candidate 14 votes.

But many of the 401K votes were in fact cast by the same people, yes?  I mean, how did you arrive at that number?  Did you simply add up what it took to get 201 state reps?  Because if you did that, then you counted many of the same people twice.  

Hypothetical Scenario:

Five seat Multi-member district, with 15,445 residents, 9000 of which are registered to vote, 6000 of which actually show up.  Total votes cast:  30,000.  You have eight candidates on the general ballot.  The results come out to be:

Jim 5000
Bob  4800
Keith 4750
Steve 4200
Jason 4000
Joe 3800
Zack 2000
Rich 1450

So, the winners here (top five) got a combined total of 22,750, in a district of 6000 real voters.

In the same way as this scenario, your 401k vote total does not mean 401k actual voters.  Try to figure out how many actual individual voters went into those booths and elected those 201 reps.

Only then will you have  a legitimate comparison.  

I'm not saying that the number will be smaller than WY's.  Of course it won't.  But it certainly isn't 8 times as high, as your post makes out.  It's probably closer to a factor of two or three.
Logged
Government can do only one thing: It can break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, "See?  If not for the government you couldn't walk."
Pages: [1]   Go Up