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Author Topic: NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.  (Read 5918 times)

Rearden

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Re:NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.
« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2003, 11:34:20 pm »

Sebastian, I see your point and recognize it as valid.  You are saying that when considering our chances of success the raw number measured against the FSP membership should be used.  My point is that when considering the current "libertarian-ness" of the existing population percentages should be used.

So it all depends on the context you are considering.


Of course, the question then becomes: "Can WY draw the 15,000 activists necessary by September 2006 to keep the project alive?"  After all, it is based on the assumption that WY and NH can both draw equal numbers of activists.

I'll go if it happens, gladly, but I have my doubts about the answer to this question, and I hope we never have to find out.
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Sebastian

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Re:NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.
« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2003, 07:57:49 am »

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The smaller the population, the more impact each individual activist may be able to create.
=percentage
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No, but they are suggesting that we should use them to select a state in the first place
Not using percentages to select a state would mean not using population.
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Sebastian

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Re:NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.
« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2003, 08:08:24 am »

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when considering our chances of success the raw number measured against the FSP membership should be used.
Correct, though it somewhat depends on the size of that raw number. The larger the raw number (for example: population), the more important it becomes to look at the percentage (20,000 FSP members = % of population).
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when considering the current "libertarian-ness" of the existing population percentages should be used.
Correct.
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"Can WY draw the 15,000 activists necessary by September 2006 to keep the project alive?"
My belief is that a weak job market may hinder initial attraction of new activists/voters. In Wyoming, one of our most important initial (non-political) goals should be to create jobs.
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I'll go if it happens, gladly, but I have my doubts about the answer to this question, and I hope we never have to find out.
I have less doubts about New Hampshire than I have about Wyoming, but I'll gladly go to Wyoming.  
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Hank

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Re:NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2003, 07:54:51 pm »

If all we can muster to the line is five thousand green troops
do you want to go up against twelve thousand veterans
or five thousand?
In the latter situation at least your evenly matched.

Why only five thousand green troops.
The other fifteen thousand are fighting the unions, the greens, the social workers, the other government workers (which NH has more of too).
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Zxcv

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Re:NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2003, 09:20:01 pm »

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The percentage comes into play ONLY if we look at a number such as Joe suggested, which counts on 10,000 activists and 100,000 FSP voters, and when the FSP voters/activists outnumber the NEA members. Until we outnumber them, the actual number is more important, as they can use their actual number to block our votes. Once we start to outnumber them, the percentage becomes a bit more important, as it can give an indication of general political affiliation of population (high percentage of NEA members will make it harder to change the general opinion of a population around than a low percentage of NEA members).

I prefer to look at it this way. There are two things we are doing: 1) making our case to the general population (the activist stuff), and 2) voting.

Starting with voting first, it's clear the percentage matters more. If we can make a simplifying assumption that the NEA members will all vote against us, then starting out we will be at a slight disadvantage in Wyoming compared to NH, because that higher percentage of NEA members means we have to compensate by winning a slightly better margin in the much larger general population vote.

But wait - we ourselves vote! So assuming a statewide vote, in Wyoming 5713 of FSP votes cancels out 5713 NEA member votes, leaving us 20,000 - 5713 = 14287 votes that are "gravy". In NH, 11384 FSP votes cancels out 11384 NEA member votes, leaving us 20,000 - 11384 = 8616 votes that are "gravy", in an election that will see over 2.6 times the number of votes cast. The FSP population would have to drop as low as 14329 in Wyoming before the situation would be as bad as in NH (in terms of votes that are "gravy"), and it still would be better because we'd still be going into a lower overall vote total so those "gravy" votes would be over twice as powerful, in a sense.

In the other item, working as activists, clearly better to be fighting against 5713 potential activists than it is against 11,384 potential activists (the difference is not "just a few more" - we've heard many times some people claiming that just a couple of thousand activists could make a huge difference). What's more, we can expect to see NEA recruitment ramp up in our state, helped from the outside because NEA nationally cannot afford to see even a single state adopt freedom in the education arena. In NH NEA has monopoly bargaining and forced dues; in Wyoming it has neither. Looks to me like the NEA recruitment potential in NH is much larger than in Wyoming. Another indicator of this is that the total number of teachers in NH is 28,974 compared to only 14,930 in Wyoming.

Wyoming is the clear winner whichever way you want to look at it, as a percentage of the population, OR as a number.
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wolverine307

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Re:NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.
« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2003, 09:26:55 pm »

Don't be so quick to assume that all NEA members move in lock step with what their leaders want. I am the oldest of six kids and the only non-teacher. If you include my sister-in-law, that's six teachers in the Wolverine family.

None of them like the NEA, but are simply doing what they gotta do to do what they love, which is teach. No doubt others feel the same way. What is the percentage of such NEA members? I don't know, but I know that my family sometimes does the opposite of what the leadership wants out of spite.
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Zxcv

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Re:NEA teachers versus FSP activists. How the states rank.
« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2003, 09:34:01 pm »

All right then, we can add this to the analysis. I made the simplification to simplify things.   ;)

What percentage of NEA members in Wyoming is more likely to vote against NEA, compared to what percentage in NH?

Pretty hard to say, but I'd put my bets on Wyoming. Probably less likely to have outright socialists in the NEA population there, don't you think? Fewer Greens, that sort of thing?

My guess is, this extra factor actually improves the Wyoming lead in this area. But I can't think how to make it more than just a guess.
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