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Author Topic: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories  (Read 64848 times)

JasonPSorens

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #135 on: October 27, 2011, 08:04:19 am »

Read up on the theory of instrumental variables. To get unbiased estimates you don't need 100% accuracy; indeed, attempting to get 100% accuracy can create problems.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

Alex Libman

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #136 on: October 27, 2011, 01:14:50 pm »

Debunking misleading or outright inappropriate appeals to the "law of averages" or IV slide-of-hand is an on-going process...

At this time, I'd like to take a time-out to pay tribute to a hero of mine, John McCarthy, who had passed away earlier this week, by posting a topic-appropriate link to this site:

The Sustainability of Human Progress
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swamp_yankee

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #137 on: October 31, 2011, 03:42:37 pm »

Global warming is real, except when it isn't.

There is a scientific consensus, except when there is none.

The science is settled, except when it isn't.

Much ballyhooed report vindicating global warming that was released last week, turns out is full of holes. More leading scientists join the sceptics:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html
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Alex Libman

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #138 on: October 31, 2011, 09:47:49 pm »

It looks like I may have to argue this issue from both sides, because some libertarians simply cannot psychologically cope with the possibility of Global Warming being sufficiently proven by any points of my aforementioned multi-point criteria of proof...  That possibility obviously does exist, and we should be prepared to accept the evidence if and when it becomes objectively conclusive.  I've written extensively in the past on how government force may theoretically be justified in some situations, most clearly in the past but possibly also in the future, given sufficiently strong evidence of that necessity, which is what I am skeptically waiting to see.

If I had to give the Global Warming agenda a crude scorecard, it would be something like this:

  • (1)  Reliable temperature data showing a significant and global warming:   25%

  • (2)  Sufficient consideration and dismissal of non-anthropogenic theories:    5%

  • (3)  Reliable projections showing that the change is significantly harmful:    2%

  • (4)  ... that it's permanent, considering the aforementioned space-tech:      0%

  • (5)  ... that it can be sufficiently remedied through their political agenda:    0%

  • (6)  ... that their political agenda will not do more than harm than good:    0%

I'm curious to learn how some of our resident AGW cheerleaders would assess this situation.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2011, 10:17:20 pm by Alex Libman »
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JasonPSorens

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #140 on: November 04, 2011, 09:28:08 pm »

Here is a very good, straightforward explanation of the current state of climate science from libertarianish scientist Matt Ridley:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/storage/ScientificHeresy.pdf

His views come close to mine: Anthropogenic global warming is definitely happening, but not at a catastrophic rate. The cost of carbon control policies is likely greater than the benefit. Nevertheless, we should continue to keep a close eye on the phenomenon and research relatively cheap solutions like geoengineering.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #141 on: November 05, 2011, 12:01:23 am »

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rossby

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #142 on: November 05, 2011, 12:50:02 am »

Here is a very good, straightforward explanation of the current state of climate science from libertarianish scientist Matt Ridley:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/storage/ScientificHeresy.pdf

His views come close to mine: Anthropogenic global warming is definitely happening, but not at a catastrophic rate. The cost of carbon control policies is likely greater than the benefit. Nevertheless, we should continue to keep a close eye on the phenomenon and research relatively cheap solutions like geoengineering.

I concur with his sentiments. Except that even "warming" is dubious; not necessarily not-true; just not a religious truth. As used, "global warming" is itself a statistically meaningless statement, something we really can't observe in a meaningful way. "Climate change" is more appropriate word. And, even then, we have little ability to detect what part of local weather variation is actually long-term climate change attributable to anthropogenic carbon emissions.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2011, 01:17:51 am by B.D. Ross »
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Alex Libman

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #143 on: November 05, 2011, 01:35:26 am »

Anthropogenic global warming is definitely happening

Take away one of the three words in bold, and I would agree with you:

  • Yes, global warming (lower-case) is definitely happening some times, at other you have global cooling - but that's not "anthropogenic".  Complex systems don't stand still, they fluctuate.

  • Anthropogenic global warming is within the realm of possibility, but it is far from "definite" to anyone why bases his opinion on solid data.

  • Anthropogenic warming is definitely happening, in my room for instance, but it's not "global".

I would also agree with you if you were to capitalize the term "Global Warming", referencing the political movement rather than the alleged temperature trend on the planet's surface.  The political movement definitely exists, is definitely global, and is definitely made up by man.


[...]  anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Which are absolutely minuscule compared to non-anthropogenic emissions, making much less of a difference than a major volcanic eruption.  Non-anthropogenic emissions have existed for billions of years, and will continue to exist, while anthropogenic emissions  should cease by the end of this century, as all energy production and industry is inevitably moved to space.


(EDIT:  oops, I'm sleepy and I said something stupid...  Volcanoes don't produce specifically more CO2 than humans, although a major eruption can have a greater temporary impact on climate.  My point was that human emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of various greenhouse gases - which tend to fluctuate in various complex cycles, not all of which are yet fully measured and understood.  And then there's cycles in Earth's magnetic field, the sun, etc...)
« Last Edit: November 05, 2011, 02:50:28 am by Alex Libman »
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rossby

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #144 on: November 05, 2011, 02:10:05 am »

[...]  anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Which are absolutely minuscule compared to non-anthropogenic emissions, making much less of a difference than a major volcanic eruption.

The concern is accumulation of "surplus" CO2.
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Alex Libman

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #145 on: November 05, 2011, 02:58:35 am »

It's not a concern to plants, algae, and cyanobacteria that turn CO2 into food and oxygen, or to animals that eat those plants and breathe that oxygen.  It's not a concern for billions of people whose lives are enabled and improved as the result of industrialization.  It's only a concern to people who need a "we're all in the same boat" pseudo-crisis to justify a World Government, and of course their brainwashed juvenile patsies.  Aside from that, it just isn't a big deal.

If the government wants to improve the environment, then it first should stop harming it - as it does through immense agricultural subsidies that encourage consumption of animal products, subsidy of cheap oil through a century of trillion-dollar wars, and failure to make pollution a liability on the basis of local Property Rights.

Humans temporarily increase the planet's emission of CO2 by about 3%, but we can also optimize the planet's plant-life through agriculture and aquaculture, and otherwise increase the absorption of CO2 as well.  Only industrialized humans can irrigate deserts, fertilize barren land, genetically engineer plants for better photosynthesis, concentrate solar energy to grow plants in polar climates, dot the oceans with floating garden-islands, and someday export life from this planet to worlds beyond!
« Last Edit: November 05, 2011, 03:30:45 am by Alex Libman »
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Alex Libman

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #146 on: November 05, 2011, 03:50:09 pm »

ZOMG, NYC IS SHRINKING!  TWO SQUARE MILES GONE - EVIL CAPITALISTS MUST HAVE EATEN IT!

Oh, wait, no, it didn't shrink, only the methods of measure changed and became more accurate.  See how this works?
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John Edward Mercier

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #147 on: November 05, 2011, 04:40:31 pm »

So submariners and astronauts worrying about scrubbing CO2 from their ambient air are just overtly concerned?
And yes, I do realize the difference in concentration being discussed.

And while your points are well taken... what is 'temporary' about the 3% increase?
Scientist retest the samples... and correlate to more recent data... but they aren't noting 'temporary' factors like solar cycles.

It would be hard to validate that long term climate changes are the result of short term changes that have an equalizing factor.

And we do have anthropogenic cooling. The same factors come into play.


« Last Edit: November 05, 2011, 04:42:34 pm by John Edward Mercier »
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John Edward Mercier

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #148 on: November 05, 2011, 04:45:08 pm »

Here is a very good, straightforward explanation of the current state of climate science from libertarianish scientist Matt Ridley:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/storage/ScientificHeresy.pdf

His views come close to mine: Anthropogenic global warming is definitely happening, but not at a catastrophic rate. The cost of carbon control policies is likely greater than the benefit. Nevertheless, we should continue to keep a close eye on the phenomenon and research relatively cheap solutions like geoengineering.

I concur with his sentiments. Except that even "warming" is dubious; not necessarily not-true; just not a religious truth. As used, "global warming" is itself a statistically meaningless statement, something we really can't observe in a meaningful way. "Climate change" is more appropriate word. And, even then, we have little ability to detect what part of local weather variation is actually long-term climate change attributable to anthropogenic carbon emissions.
And we shouldn't be able to in the short term...
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Alex Libman

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Re: Climategate & Global Warming is a Hoax news stories
« Reply #149 on: November 05, 2011, 05:43:43 pm »

So submariners and astronauts worrying about scrubbing CO2 from their ambient air are just overtly concerned?
And yes, I do realize the difference in concentration being discussed.

Then why bring it up?  Those examples are very much different, and if you account for all those differences then you no longer have a point.

If you have a huge and complex biosphere where everything is roughly balanced, and you increase CO2 production by 3%, you can make an equivalent increase in CO2 absorption as well.  This happens naturally when plants get more favorable growing conditions, for which CO2 is one of the factors, and this can happen on a massive scale through human ingenuity.


And while your points are well taken... what is 'temporary' about the 3% increase?

Burning hydrocarbons for energy when you live in a solar system 99.86% of which is a giant nuclear reactor is ridiculous.  Pollution will decrease, while anthropogenic greenery will increase, because people like to be surrounded by plants.  Advances in gastronomy will lead to better vegan cuisine, which means less cows to exhale and fart CO2.  By around 2070s we'll be worried about having too little CO2, not to too much, and on planetary scale that's just a blink of an eye...
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