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Author Topic: NH vs WY  (Read 194473 times)

JasonPSorens

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #135 on: June 26, 2003, 10:31:17 am »

Actually, general knowledge of the kind, "these states are popular and these states aren't," isn't enough to make strategic voting worthwhile.  Let's take the example you use, except let's suppose D is a bit more popular than these A voters thought.  Let's make the actual vote breakdown with sincere voting as follows:

896:A>B>E>C>D
706:C>A>B>E>D
399:C>E>D>B>A
682:D>B>A>C>E
526:E>D>A>B>C

Now let's say A voters are scared of B, so they do as you suggest and place it last, with D second:

896:A>D>E>C>B
706:C>A>B>E>D
399:C>E>D>B>A
682:D>B>A>C>E
526:E>D>A>B>C

In this scenario, A beats B, 2128-1081, but A loses to D, 1602-1607.  Just a slight change in the numbers and rankings changes the outcome significantly.

Any voting method is subject to manipulation if you know how everyone else is voting.  Instant Runoff Voting has the same problem as Condorcet, except that it is more severe, and even when people vote sincerely, IRV can generate serious paradoxes that would leave most people unhappy.  (IRV can even make a winner out of a Condorcet loser - a choice against which a majority would choose any other option!)  It's actually been mathematically proven that there is no voting method that is free of strategy.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2003, 10:32:30 am by JasonPSorens »
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bakedchip

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #136 on: June 26, 2003, 11:34:56 am »

It's actually been mathematically proven that there is no voting method that is free of strategy.

Technically, there is one way to make strategic voting useless - throw all ballots into a hat, pick one, and that ballot determines the winner.  But that's a rather silly way to have an election.  I think it's called the "random ballot" method.

The best thing about Condorcet is that although strategic voting is technically possible, it is extremely difficult - and it is more difficult the larger the voting group becomes.

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LibertyLover

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #137 on: June 26, 2003, 04:53:25 pm »

Also, I am trying to "Vote with Thought", as someone put it (sounds almost like "Vote For the Children" to me).  


I think Vote with Thought means to rank the states in the order you truly THINK reflects their potential for being freed, rather than voting out of fear or emotion, including the fear that someone else will be able to manipulate the vote.

Quote
Believe me, I have been thinking about this quite a bit since Jason and other such intelligent people here disagree with me.  Maybe someone can show me where I'm going wrong (hopefully without accusing me of voter fraud).

I don't think you are trying to manipulate the vote on purpose. I think you just don't yet understand how the Condorcet method works, and your example here proves it.

Quote
Anyway, here is an example taken the the Condorcet calculator page:

votes:

896:A>C>E>D>B
776:B>A>C>E>D
399:C>E>D>B>A
652:D>B>A>C>E
526:E>D>B>A>C

scores:

A  896
B  776
C  399
D  652
E  526

These scores are wrong because Condorcet scores by relative ranking of all choices. In this example, B beats A 2353-896 because every voter who doesn't rank A as #1 ranks B higher than A, which would be an unlikely result in our voting. In fact, this example seems specifically designed to give no first round winner, perhaps to show how smaller magnitude elimination would work. When you eliminate smallest magnitude defeats, B is the eventual winner.

Quote
Here, the winner, A, had an outright majority of the first place votes and  its not suprising that A wins.  

A only has 896 first place votes out of 3249 total votes. Since the other 2353 voters perfer B to A, it seems that B's victory is the best outcome, especially since A only received 120 more first place votes than B did.

Quote
Now what if the A voters had placed runner-up, B, in the second spot instead of dead last, (as Zxcv advocates in his NH vs. WY example)?:

Zxcv argued that WY would be a good second choice for NH supporters, but I don't think he ever advocated putting WY any higher than you believe it should go on its merits. He just argued against putting it "dead last" unless you really believe it would be the worst possible choice for the Free State. So let's assume that this next example is people voting their true preferences.

Quote
votes:

896:A>B>E>D>C
776:B>A>C>E>D
399:C>E>D>B>A
652:D>B>A>C>E
526:E>D>B>A>C

scores:

A    896
B  1672
C    399
D    652
E    925

A, (or NH), now comes in third with the otherwise runner-up, B, winning in a landslide.  

B still beats A 2353-896 and A still beats C, D and E, but now B also beats the other three states, so it wins without a tie-breaker.

Quote
I know that this doesn't prove much (but it does prove that Zxcv's claims are untrue).  I also think this makes it clear that strategic voting can have a major effect.  

Since this example shows the same winner with and without strategic voting, it proves that Zxcv's claims are true and suggests that the only effect strategic voting might have is to create a tie or select a less popular state than the strategic voters intended.

Quote
I know some people think I'm suggesting something unethical, but I am  actually just trying to show that, unfortunately, Condorcets method turns the vote into something like a poker game where you must consider the actions of others to make an informed decision.

It IS unethical to tell people NOT to vote their conscience. All those well-meaning people who said libertarians should vote for Bush as the lesser of two evils now have to take some of the responsibility for our being in an illegal and immoral war. Maybe it would have happened anyway, or maybe something worse would have happened under Gore, but when you tell people to ignore their own judgement, you should be very sure that you understand the consequences. You would have done better to frame your concerns as questions rather than telling people they "should" use strategic voting to help their favorite win.

The good thing is that, by going through all these exercises to show how Condorcet works, maybe we have reassured the people like you who feared that it would not be the best way to determine which state is most preferred by the members.
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JasonPSorens

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #138 on: June 26, 2003, 07:54:43 pm »

These scores are wrong because Condorcet scores by relative ranking of all choices. In this example, B beats A 2353-896 because every voter who doesn't rank A as #1 ranks B higher than A, which would be an unlikely result in our voting.

Heh, you're right, I didn't even check that when I made my response.
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Delawarean

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #139 on: June 26, 2003, 09:43:53 pm »

Well, maybe we just aren't using the same method.  Does pressing the Simpson button on the calculator page give the correct winner or not?  When I plug in the following votes,

896:A>C>E>D>B
776:B>A>C>E>D
399:C>E>D>B>A
652:D>B>A>C>E
526:E>D>B>A>C

 I get:
---------------------------------------------------------------
"The pairwise matrix:
     against
         A             B              C                D                      E
for
A                    896         *2850       *1672               *2324
B    *2353                      *1954           776                 1428
C      399       1295                          *2071               *2723
D    1577      *2473        1178                                     652
E      925      *1821          526         *2597

A candidate's Simpson score is the fewest number of votes it received in any single pairwise comparison.

The candidates' Simpson scores:
A 896
B 776
C 399
D 652
E 526

A has the single best Simpson score and so wins the election outright."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
(I put in the *'s to indicate the winners of the pairwise match-ups)

Is this correct?  Yes, B beats A head to head 2353-896, but A wins the election.   Or not?


By the way, could someone explain how to use the quote feature?
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JasonPSorens

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #140 on: June 27, 2003, 07:13:54 am »

The pairwise matrix is correct, but the interpretation after it is misleading, as it skips straight to the tiebreaker sequence... If you look at the pairwise matrix you'll see some numbers followed by stars; those stars indicate a victory.  B's star in the A column means that B has a victory over A.  If you look at A's number in the B column you'll see the number of votes that A got against B.  But B loses to D and E, so B isn't the Condorcet winner.  In fact, no candidate is the Condorcet winner, so then it goes to tiebreaker, and that's when the "Simpson" aspect kicks in.  The smallest defeat is eliminated first: this is A's victory over D.  But D still has 2 defeats.  The second-smallest defeat is E's victory over B.  After that's eliminated, B still has 1 defeat.  Next B over C is eliminated; C still has 1 defeat.  Then C over D is eliminated; D still has 1 defeat.  A over E is eliminated next; that leaves E 1 defeat.  Then B over A is eliminated, and A has no defeats; A is the victor.

Complicated, yes?  I definitely think the example is contrived!  So A does pull it out in the end, but if you change the numbers or rankings slightly, this result could change.  As a consequence, there's really no way to vote strategically unless you have really detailed info about the outcomes.

To use the "quote" feature, simply click the "quote" button on the top right of the message you're responding to, or use the {quote} and {/quote} tags, where those curly brackets should actually be straight brackets.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2003, 07:17:03 am by JasonPSorens »
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LibertyLover

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #141 on: June 27, 2003, 05:36:40 pm »

In fact, no candidate is the Condorcet winner, so then it goes to tiebreaker, and that's when the "Simpson" aspect kicks in.  The smallest defeat is eliminated first: this is A's victory over D.  But D still has 2 defeats.  The second-smallest defeat is E's victory over B.  After that's eliminated, B still has 1 defeat.  Next B over C is eliminated; C still has 1 defeat.  Then C over D is eliminated; D still has 1 defeat.  A over E is eliminated next; that leaves E 1 defeat.  Then B over A is eliminated, and A has no defeats; A is the victor.

I see that I made a mistake in all those elimination rounds. You're right that A is the victor after five eliminations.

Quote
Complicated, yes?  I definitely think the example is contrived!  So A does pull it out in the end, but if you change the numbers or rankings slightly, this result could change.  As a consequence, there's really no way to vote strategically unless you have really detailed info about the outcomes.

This example is definitely contrived. No state could win outright because, in every ranking, the state that is first and the state that is last are ranked in inverse order in every other ranking. When A is #1, B is last, but every other voter ranked B higher than A. When B is #1, D is last, but every other voter ranked D higher than B. When C is #1, A is last, but every other voter ranked A higher than C. When D is #1, E is last, but every other voter ranked E higher than D. Finally, when E is #1, C is last, but every other voter ranked C higher than E. For this to happen, every single voter would have to put a "more popular" state (more popular than their #1 choice) dead last.

I quess the only thing this example proves is that, if every single person knew how every other person was going to vote and voted strategically, the tiebreaker would go to the state that got the most #1 votes. As you pointed out, strategic voting is way too uncertain to be worth trying.
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Greg B.

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NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #142 on: June 30, 2003, 01:57:57 pm »

The New Hampshire/Wyoming debate continues to rage on with both sides (I’ve participated in it!) really digging their heels in.  Jason, I’d really like to know how you feel about all of this.  I know you don’t want to choose sides and I’m not asking you to.  However, you started this project and, therefore, your views would be very enlightening for all of us.

For example, I’ve stated that New Hampshire’s high population and high number of voters for Gore/Nader in the 2000 election really scare me.  I’m afraid we’ll get there and possibly be outnumbered by non-libertarians.  However, a lot of people have responded that those voters won’t be a problem.  If I’m wrong on this issue, please let me know.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this and anything else you feel is important regarding the New Hampshire/Wyoming debate.

Thanks,
Greg    
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Kelton Baker

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Re:NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #143 on: June 30, 2003, 02:06:19 pm »

The FSP vote for the chosen state, as now constituted is going to be decided by 5,000 (possibly a few more) voters.  Jason Soren's vote is going to amount to 5000^-1 or 1/x*5,000 or 1/5,000th of the vote; i.e. as much as yours in deciding this whole thing, really.

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Greg B.

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Re:NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #144 on: June 30, 2003, 02:21:05 pm »

Exitus,

I think we're all fully aware that Jason's vote counts the same as everybody else's vote.  I just am curious how he feels about this whole debate.  Regardless of whether his opinion supports my view or not, I'd like to hear what he has to say.  After all, he had the vision and guts to start the FSP so, in my opinion, what he says carries a lot of weight.

Greg
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Kelton Baker

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Re:NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #145 on: June 30, 2003, 03:11:12 pm »

Sorry to put you down by stating the obvious, Greg!  I didn't mean to do that, be a wiseacre, well maybe yes, but put you down, no.  


Actually, I'm a little curious too, and until Jason answers your post, does this help?  --Note the date, I'm sure things have changed since!

My latest opinion:

VT>WY>ID>DE>AK>NH>SD>ME>ND>MT

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Greg B.

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Re:NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #146 on: June 30, 2003, 03:39:33 pm »

Exitus,

No problem, I didn't mean to snap back either!  I agree, it'll be very interesting to see what he says.  I'm sure his opinion has changed just like everybody else's.  It just seems like eventually we're going to have to unify everybody and maybe he's the one who can do it.

Greg
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rdeacon

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Re:NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #147 on: June 30, 2003, 04:20:54 pm »

Nothing personal, but asking Jason's opinion on this matter really seems to remind me of when, as a child, I went to my parents along with my sister and made them judge our art contest.

It's obvious that whichever side gets Jason's vote is going to use his endorsement to support their cause, but as Jason's opinion is mathematically worth no more than any other voting FSP member's opinion, it would be wrong for us to solicit his opinion on the matter before the vote takes place.

Let's keep the debate to the merits of the two states (you know, Wyoming = better population, New Hampshire = better everything else).
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ZionCurtain

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Re:NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #148 on: June 30, 2003, 04:55:57 pm »

Nothing personal, but asking Jason's opinion on this matter really seems to remind me of when, as a child, I went to my parents along with my sister and made them judge our art contest.

It's obvious that whichever side gets Jason's vote is going to use his endorsement to support their cause, but as Jason's opinion is mathematically worth no more than any other voting FSP member's opinion, it would be wrong for us to solicit his opinion on the matter before the vote takes place.

Let's keep the debate to the merits of the two states (you know, Wyoming = better population, New Hampshire = better everything else).
Would you pass the crack pipe please, before you hurt yourself. It is well documented that Wyoming is leap years ahead of NH in most libertarian leanings. Man will people at least research before they make ignorant statements.
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Greg B.

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Re:NH/WY debate: How does Jason feel?
« Reply #149 on: June 30, 2003, 09:15:25 pm »

RDeacon,

Comparing asking Jason's opinion to asking your parents their opinion on an art contest when you were a kid is absurd.  If you think this is an "art contest", then you're not taking it very seriously.

The guy started the whole project for crying out loud.  And there is a serious rift between supporters of both states that needs to be dealt with.

I'm not sure if you read my whole post, but I said that I didn't want Jason to choose sides, just elaborate on, say, the population issue in New Hampshire and the jobs issue in Wyoming.  I also said that if he thinks I'm wrong about the New Hampshire population issue being a problem, then I'd love to know.

If you're so confident that New Hampshire is best, then you shouldn't be afraid to hear what he says.

Greg
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