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Author Topic: NH vs WY  (Read 189141 times)

Zxcv

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NH vs WY
« Reply #105 on: June 20, 2003, 03:41:09 am »

I've been thinking about this lately, and believe I have a proposition which may interest New Hampshire advocates.

They should put Wyoming in second place on their ballot.

What the heck for?  ???

First, let's discuss what the vote NH>WY>(the rest) does not do.

Some people, I've noticed, seeing WY is a major contender with NH, have been saying they are going to vote this way: NH>(the rest)>WY, as if putting WY last will somehow help NH. This is a kind of strategic vote; but it is an ill-informed one, I believe. The fact is, someone changing from NH>WY>(the rest) to NH>(the rest)>WY in no way improves NH's chance to win. Nor, does going in the reverse direction harm its chances.

We can prove this. I have taken some tests with this Condorcet calculator:
http://www.onr.com/user/honky98/rbvote/calc.html
(remember to use the "Simpson" button)

Let's set up some scenarios. First to simplify things, imagine we have 3 states instead of 10, that is, NH, WY and ID. Let's set up a vote with all possibilities for these 3 states.

10:WY>NH>ID
10:WY>ID>NH
10:NH>WY>ID
10:NH>ID>WY
10:ID>NH>WY
10:ID>WY>NH

This can be cut out of this thread and pasted into the calculator if you want to experiment. It shows 60 votes, 10 for each possibility. It generates a 3-way tie.

Now let's give NH a win by giving it one extra vote:

10:WY>NH>ID
10:WY>ID>NH
11:NH>WY>ID
10:NH>ID>WY
10:ID>NH>WY
10:ID>WY>NH

This of course gives an NH win, but just barely (it gets 31 points to the other two state's 30 points). Try it out on the calculator, push "Simpson", you'll see.

Now let's do what this thread advocates, changing all the votes by NH proponents to put WY second. Does this kick NH out of its precarious one-point lead?

10:WY>NH>ID
10:WY>ID>NH
21:NH>WY>ID
0:NH>ID>WY
10:ID>NH>WY
10:ID>WY>NH

Nope, NH is still the winner with 31 points, WY still has 30, but ID now only has 20. Thus, putting WY in second place cannot harm NH, in votes by NH supporters. As long as NH supporters put NH first, that's the best they can do for NH.

OK, great (you're probably saying to yourself), even if it would not hurt NH to put WY second, what's the point in doing so?

How about because Wyoming is a great candidate for the Free State Project?

We've all gone overboard in supporting our favorite states, taking probably unjustified whacks at its greatest contenders. But we shouldn't compound that error by actually starting to believe those wilder claims (I read somewhere we'd be foraging for berries and roots to survive in Wyoming  ;D ). Wyoming is a major contender because it is good, really good. It surely does not deserve to be put behind the likes of Maine, North Dakota or Delaware in anyone's ballot. That is just silly.

The above argument applies to anyone, except of course Wyoming supporters who will put Wyoming first! But there is a specific reason that NH supporters should find putting WY second an attractive idea. That is, it will be good for New Hampshire.

Now, I am not going to say a single word about a 2-state project (ooops!   ;) ), but the fact is, Wyoming is the smallest state. And it is a western state. Those two facts are very advantageous to New Hampshire.

Let's imagine, after all is said and done and the votes are in, that NH still does not quite take the cake. Why is a Wyoming win the next best thing for New Hampshire (absent it's own outright win)?

Since Wyoming is western, there will be a lot of unhappy easterners. For example, Wyoming opt-outs. Now Tim is going to twist their arms to get them to come to Wyoming anyway (more power to you, Tim) but some don't want to go; that's why they opted out. NH is the most likely recipient of those opt-outs, who still will want to "move toward freedom." If the winning state, while not NH, were an eastern one, NH would likely NOT harvest the opt-outs, because in that case the opt-outs would be western state fans.

Since Wyoming is small, there will be an embarrassment of riches for Wyoming, as far as the Project is concerned. We only need to get 7500 into that state to match 20,000 in New Hampshire, if you compare by the number of voters. Anything over that is gravy. Well, assuming we recruit 20,000 for Wyoming, we still might not be able to cram them all in (if you believe all the doom and gloom about Wyoming jobs - which I don't - but NHer's do, which is what matters  ;) ). I believe I've read that the FSP board would be able to generate dispensations for those who just can't find a job or fit in (although you'd still be honor-bound to try, of course). NH will harvest a lot of these, too. With such an embarrassment of riches, the dispensations could be generous - unlike the case were a big state chosen, and they'd need every body they could find.

If we cannot actually recruit 20,000 for WY (I think it's doable, but not the easiest state by any means) then NH stands to harvest big-time, because people still want to "move toward freedom", but they will be free of their official Wyoming commitment. Wyoming will still get enough to make it free (7500 is easy, that's why I call it the failsafe state), but all those eastern-preferring FSPers will get to pick and choose - and many will choose NH instead. Even with Tim twisting their arms.   :)

NH fans, you really, really, really ought to consider putting WY second in your ballot, since I can't talk you into putting it first. If my reasoning is flawed here, I'm sure you will let me know!

BTW, there are reasons for ID, MT and other proponents to put WY second, too, but they are not so stark and obvious as for NH proponents. I guess we can take that up on another thread.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2003, 10:17:31 pm by JasonPSorens »
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ZionCurtain

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #106 on: June 20, 2003, 02:23:50 pm »

Sounds like us Folks out west need to put NH in last place if that is how they are going to play the Wyoming thing.
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freedomroad

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #107 on: June 20, 2003, 03:06:55 pm »

Sounds like us Folks out west need to put NH in last place if that is how they are going to play the Wyoming thing.

Welcome back to the forum.

Well, that would really not change anything either.  The folks out west should vote just like the folks in the south, east, mid-west, and in other countries will vote.  We will look at all of the factors and vote based off of them.

Zxcv's point was that the NH and other people should pick Wyoming 2nd because it is a very good state.   Of course, this is only if people refuse to but Wyoming first.  

Here are the 2 main reasons he gave.

1.
"Since Wyoming is western, there will be a lot of unhappy easterners. For example, Wyoming opt-outs. Now Tim is going to twist their arms to get them to come to Wyoming anyway (more power to you, Tim) but some don't want to go; that's why they opted out. NH is the most likely recipient of those opt-outs, who still will want to "move toward freedom." If the winning state, while not NH, were an eastern one, NH would likely NOT harvest the opt-outs, because in that case the opt-outs would be western state fans."

2
"Since Wyoming is small, there will be an embarrassment of riches for Wyoming, as far as the Project is concerned. We only need to get 7500 into that state to match 20,000 in New Hampshire, if you compare by the number of voters. Anything over that is gravy. Well, assuming we recruit 20,000 for Wyoming, we still might not be able to cram them all in (if you believe all the doom and gloom about Wyoming jobs - which I don't - but NHer's do, which is what matters   ). I believe I've read that the FSP board would be able to generate dispensations for those who just can't find a job or fit in (although you'd still be honor-bound to try, of course). NH will harvest a lot of these, too. With such an embarrassment of riches, the dispensations could be generous - unlike the case were a big state chosen, and they'd need every body they could find."

Although, on the other hand.  I think it will take 20,000 in WY, 30,000 in NH, and maybe even 40,000 in ID to make this work.  That might not even be enough.  The project will not be as easy as many people think.   You cannot just change everyone's mind on all of the issues overnight.  You have to start small (like Wyoming) and move into other, bigger states as you can (like Billing, MT or Rapid City, SD or Gering, NE or Idaho Falls, ID).  Start small and work from there.  Remember, BABY STEPS, that almost always works best.

Wyoming is the smallest state.  However, NH is better than anything on the East coast so it makes sense to send a few people that refuse to move West to NH.  These people can help the NHLP and both the people in WY and NH can work together to make America a better place to live.  Amen.
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Kelton Baker

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #108 on: June 20, 2003, 03:27:17 pm »


Since Wyoming is small, there will be an embarrassment of riches for Wyoming, as far as the Project is concerned. We only need to get 7500 into that state to match 20,000 in New Hampshire, if you compare by the number of voters.


If the crafters of the FSP only had the foresight to match my marvelous 20/20 hindsight, I would say each state would require a population-dependant influx of Porcupines instead of the 20,000 variable, and this whole business of comparing state populations would be a point to compare recruitment efforts and other quality factors would weigh heavier... and Zxcv's arguments wouldn't be needed right now:) at least so I think... oh well, getting back to the real world...



We are not interested in your strategic voting scheme.  ::)

NH is FSP Friendly!!

I think that a lot of thought has gone into Zxcv's post here and he has the best interests of the FSP in mind,  the least you can do is try to understand what this is about.  

This "scheme" is not some trick.

The Condorcet method allows for you to almost perfectly evaluate each state independently against all other states, as if you were taking 10 surveys, one for each state.

If you wish for people to vote for New Hampshire based on an honest assessment of its many fine qualities, then you should also recognize that Wyoming is a worthy competitor, based on many of the same criteria by which New Hampshire supporters wish for it to be judged.

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« Last Edit: June 20, 2003, 03:27:52 pm by exitus... »
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Michelle

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #109 on: June 20, 2003, 03:31:43 pm »

I think that a lot of thought has gone into Zxcv's post here and he has the best interests of the FSP in mind,  the least you can do is try to understand what this is about.  

I do. The problem is that I haven't made my final decision about how I will rank the remaining nine states.
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onyx_goddess

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #110 on: June 20, 2003, 03:36:22 pm »

Maybe I just don't remember this from the FAQ, but I'm unclear about how the opt-out interacts with our voting.  Do we vote for all 10 regardless of our opt-outs?  I mean, let's say I wanted to move to WY, and was opting out of NH, but I felt that even if I couldn't be in the FreeState, it should be NH if it couldn't be WY.  So, even though I opt out of NH, I still put it as 2.  Maybe this is an unlikely scenario, but I think it demonstrates that it could be helpful for some clever person to provide an article titled "So, You're About To Vote" which details some best-practices for people like me.
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Kelton Baker

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #111 on: June 20, 2003, 03:47:54 pm »

I think that a lot of thought has gone into Zxcv's post here and he has the best interests of the FSP in mind,  the least you can do is try to understand what this is about.  

I do. The problem is that I haven't made my final decision about how I will rank the remaining nine states.


I guess we all think differently, then.  I am still trying to figure out which sequence to vote for my top state postitions, but the states from the bottom are pretty-well decided, with ME and ND being cast in firm cement in their positions at the bottom of my list, while NH,WY,ID, AK change places almost daily for me lately.

61
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onyx_goddess

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #112 on: June 20, 2003, 04:09:49 pm »

libertarian40 are you suggesting that the FSP won't be able to succeed in Wyoming because any efforts we make will be stopped by corrupt election officials falsifying the ballots?
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Kelton Baker

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #113 on: June 21, 2003, 12:24:42 am »

I think that a lot of thought has gone into Zxcv's post here and he has the best interests of the FSP in mind,  the least you can do is try to understand what this is about.  

I do understand what Zxcv's post is about. If I thought Wyoming was the second best state, that is where it would go in my ranking.

I don't think it is the second best state - all votes in Wyoming are counted with riggable machines; this is a show-stopper for me.

If most of Wyoming's counties used hand counted paper ballots, and the public was allowed to observe the counting of votes, I would put WY in the #1 spot, actually.
O.K., I think I see what you are saying.  I realize that perhaps it is the headline of Zxcv's thread here that throws you off, and I realize it could come across as being a bit manipulative, by perception.
How about this,

Everyone should consider each state individually for their vote,
NH Fans Should Still Consider voting Wyoming Highly,  Putting Aside Competitive Frustrations, Likewise WY Fans For NH, Inasmuch As Each Person Judges Is Appropriate.  


106
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Zxcv

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #114 on: June 21, 2003, 02:54:45 am »

Quote
Quote
libertarian40 are you suggesting that the FSP won't be able to succeed in Wyoming because any efforts we make will be stopped by corrupt election officials falsifying the ballots?
 


YES!

And it's a shame, too. Wyoming would be a great choice if it were not for that.

onyx_goddess, I want to give you some more information on this business.

George (libertarian40) a while back needed help researching the election laws of the 10 states. I volunteered to help him, and dug through the statutes of 3 or 4 states, as I recall, and sent it back to him. He and another FSPer were going to put together a report about voting technology in particular, and how susceptible the existing condition was in each state to fraud. I hadn't spent much time on this issue before and asked him about it; he suggested I get the book Votescam and read it, which I did. It was by a crusader against vote fraud, which is likely more prevalent than most people suspect, although perhaps not so prevalent as the author believed.

Well anyway, I have been waiting for this report from George and friend for months now, but nothing. He says she is not done, but he won't take it over to complete it. So we really have nothing, which irritates me not only because I spent a fair amount of time digging out the info for him, but because he's taken to making unfounded allegations about Wyoming, saying this one factor makes it impossible. Without that report it becomes difficult to refute him. It's like president whosis talking about a "missile gap", but without letting us look at his evidence.

The facts are that the states have varying amounts of fraud-possible technology. That we know. We also know fraud has happened with many technologies, including paper ballots in the past, so even that is not fraud proof, but it can be pretty close. Finally I believe it is the case that NH has (as far as I know) the most fraud-proof system, but ironically this may be because it figured prominently in Votescam as having through fraud given the election a ways back to Bush Sr. (if I recall rightly).

Is that why Granite Staters hate the Bushes so much George? Because he gave the state a black eye with Sununu's fraud?

A couple of points to think about:

1) Just because a state (in this case, virtually all states under consideration, I think) has some fraud-possible technology, does not mean it is being used fraudulently, as Joe points out.

2) NH still managed to fix its vote fraud problem without 20,000 activists pushing to get it done.

3) There is no constituency for vote fraud. We will not be treading on some hallowed sacred tenet of the voters. We will be able to fix this, no matter what state we go to, and it will be trivially easy. If we can't manage even this, we will be pathetic, paper tigers.

George is grasping at straws with this one. Marketing calls this FUD: spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt against a competitor. I'm guilty from time to time of this as well, but I am trying to cut back, because in the long run it's not helpful.

Now, getting back to the thread topic, I'm glad George does not speak for all NH proponents, even though he said, "We are not interested..."  I'm confident that when NH fans start thinking of their second choices, many will see Wyoming really deserves to be in 2nd place on their ballots.
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LibertyLover

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #115 on: June 21, 2003, 04:02:16 am »

We are not interested in your strategic voting scheme.  ::)

I certainly didn't get the impression this was a strategic voting scheme. I thought Zxcv was arguing *against* trying to use a strategist voting scheme to increase the chance of New Hampshire being selected, because some people seemed to be under the impression that putting the "rival" to your favorite state at the bottom would increase your favorite's chances. Of course, all this "strategy" would accomplish is getting one of your lower choices selected if your favorite didn't win.

I remember seeing a post somewhere that suggested Wyoming and Montana would "split the western vote," so I re-examined the voting method. It seems to me there is no reason for any kind of strategic voting. If there are people who believe that only a western state can work, they will put all the western states before the eastern states. If there are enough of those people, then all the western states will beat all the eastern and the winner will be the western state that was ranked higher on the most ballots. Putting all the western states higher as a "strategy" rather than a true preference would only increase the chance that one of your lower choices would win if your favorite didn't.

From the discussions on this forum, which may or may not be indicative of the way the voting will go, it looks like the front runners are Wyoming and New Hampshire, so the question may be which of those two is ranked higher on the most ballots. It probably won't matter whether they are ranked 1,2 or 1,10 on individual ballots, except that if too many people rank either one of them artificially low, it could possibly cause a state that is less attractive than either of them to win.

Right now, I'm planning on voting WY #1 and NH #2 and haven't decided on #3, 4, and 5, but I think it's important to use my best judgment about which is the better chance for freedom in all of the ranking.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2003, 04:12:35 am by LibertyLover »
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Aaron

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #116 on: June 21, 2003, 02:57:42 pm »

Some people, I've noticed, seeing WY is a major contender with NH, have been saying they are going to vote this way: NH>(the rest)>WY, as if putting WY last will somehow help NH. This is a kind of strategic vote; but it is an ill-informed one, I believe. The fact is, someone changing from NH>WY>(the rest) to NH>(the rest)>WY in no way improves NH's chance to win. Nor, does going in the reverse direction harm its chances.

From this quote of the original post that started this thread it is clear that Zxcv's point IS that all should vote according to how they truly rank the states.  What he argues in the original post is that if you really think Wyoming is second to New Hampshire, you should rank them one and two.  His point is that if you think they are the two best choices, you are not "helping" your first choice by ranking your second choice as last.  He then very accurately demonstrates why the voting method makes this true.

As for his private e-mails to others, for the purpose of this thread, I do not care about them.  Replies to this thread should concern the material posted publicly on this thread.  I did not receive one of his "private" messages, and they are irrelevant to the debate on this thread.

The question the original posts asks is:  If you think X and Y are the two best choices, should you rank them one and two or should you rank X one and Y ten to "help" the chances of X?  His analysis of the voting method clearly shows that ranking Y ten does NOT help X.  It would only help Z win out over Y if neither X or Y turns out to be the winner.  The point is that if you truly believe X and Y are the two best choices, please do not mistakenly choose a stategy that will do nothing but help state Z.  BTW, I have used anonymous variables because the point holds true no matter which states you favor (even if your top choice is neither NH nor WY).  
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Robert H.

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #117 on: June 21, 2003, 09:32:21 pm »

Zxcv's plan deals with a few simple ideas that have nothing to do with manipulation.  Rather, they deal with some of the realities we face:

1. There are those who will not move East and those who will not move West, period.  They've indicated as much, and we've been told that opt-outs are on the rise.
2. Those who do refuse to move could start competing projects that would draw off participants from the main FSP effort.
3. A competing project may draw off enough participants to keep the main FSP effort from succeeding, yet it may not draw enough to succeed on its own.  Thus, the prospects of a free state could be diminished altogether.

The idea that Zxcv proposes attempts to make the best of what could become a bad situation, thus protecting the chances that a free state effort will succeed.  It merely tries to accommodate what is likely to take place anyway, as much as we would like to think otherwise.

There is no manipulation going on here.  The logic, reasoning, and implications involved are being offered up front and made obvious.

Yes, everyone should vote according to which states they believe would be best for liberty in our lifetime.  Yet, in the process of doing so, we take into account various factors that could work against our success: opposition groups, expense of elections, government infrastructure, how many are needed for success in given states, etc.  Do we not?

This is merely another broad consideration of what may affect our success, and should be factored into the overall decision just as our individual members would decide on how any other criteria affect the prospects of a free state.  Bringing up the issue is not an act of manipulation.  No one state is guaranteed to benefit as a result.

The issue of which state would win under such circumstances would still be up in the air.

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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #118 on: June 21, 2003, 11:27:44 pm »

Quote
His whole idea is manipulative.

George, when you post things like this, you are pasting a big "Kick Me" sign on your back. If you keep doing it I may have to take you up on it. At least have the sense to have someone else carry your arguments in this subject.   ;)

Yes, I sent private emails to certain prominent NH supporters. I fail to see the skullduggery here; am I supposed to stop sending private emails to all my fellow FSP correspondents? I simply wanted to run the idea past them, see what they thought. In this I was mildly disappointed, but not too surprised. I also guessed before-hand that someone would try to make an issue of my having sent that email, and you know what? I didn't care.   ;D

Anyway, having been mildly disappointed, I decided to do the obvious and post the idea for everyone to look at, and let them consider the idea for themselves. Voila.

George, why don't you get the raw info, and whatever work there is on it, from Mary Lou? Then you can make a fuller report.
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Re:NH fans should look at WY for 2nd choice
« Reply #119 on: June 23, 2003, 11:21:53 am »

Just to clarify my earlier statement. It was an attempt at sarcasm for those who would put Wyoming as last on their ballot because they want NH to win, not because they think it is the worst.

In all actuality I think if FSP was to locate in NH I think it would become a political joke much like Vermont has become because of the liberal invasion of decades ago. Numbers wise I think NH is second best at achieving an FSP state therefore that is where I will put it. Wyoming I believe is the best therefore that is were I will put it. No stategic crap involved, just honest opinion.
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