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Author Topic: predicting the vote  (Read 6200 times)

stpeter

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predicting the vote
« on: May 14, 2003, 10:30:20 pm »

While it's great to debate the relative merits of the various candidate states, I think it's safe to say that how FSPers actually vote will probably not be based on a thorough reading of all the web forum posts. So I wonder when someone will take a poll of FSPers or try to predict the voting results. For example, right now (based on the numbers at http://www.freestateproject.org/member_maps/MembersByState_numbers.htm), 365 or around 10% of FSPers are located in California. Another 217 are in Florida, 201 are in Texas, and so on. While some of these folks could be "glass-eaters" who will move anywhere, others will probably be more comfortable in some states than others (for reasons of climate, culture, etc.). As I've written before, I strongly doubt that folks from down South are likely to move to northern New England. Right now probably a third of FSPers are from the states of the old Confederacy (plus Texas), which makes it seem unlikely to me that the New England states will be picked. Nearly another third are from the Mountain and Pacific time zones, and it seems to me that those folks might not want to move very far east. I don't mean to stir up a hornet's nest of regionalism and North vs. South or East vs. West -- I'm just looking at this scientifically and trying to figure out how the vote might go based on demographics and geography. Though I suppose we'll find out soon enough. :)

Any thoughts on how best to educate the voters? Will the (seemingly moribund) State Research Committee send out voter guides? Will there be an info-packet about each state? Inquiring minds want to know....
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Robert H.

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2003, 11:10:23 pm »

Any thoughts on how best to educate the voters? Will the (seemingly moribund) State Research Committee send out voter guides? Will there be an info-packet about each state? Inquiring minds want to know....

We had some discussions about these issues on the ballot subcommittee, and worked through some recommendations that Jason is submitting to the FSP board for approval.

If approved as is, each state would get one page (front and back) where its advocates could make that state's case to the voters.  What is currently being suggested is that advocates for various states organize themselves into a group and work on their state's "closing" or summary argument.

Here's some excerpts of what Jason posted recently on the FSP State Discussion list in regard to some questions about these closing arguments:

***

On Fri, 9 May 2003, Paul and Wai Yee Bonneau wrote:

> A couple of questions have already come up on this Jason, maybe the
board ought to address. We need to know what to do about format.
> That is, font, font size, line spacing and the like.

How about this as a starting point:

12-point Times New Roman, single-spaced, front and reverse, top & bottom
margins 1", left and right margins 1.25", all paragraphs indented 0.5",
no more than five sentences per paragraph, all statements of fact other
than those listed on the State Data page or in the standard spreadsheet
must be footnoted, footnotes must be placed after a line at the end of the
document and must be in 10-point Times New Roman font and single-spaced.

How's that? ;)

Note that Debra has suggested that we have 1 person organizing all the
state groups so that there aren't multiple groups for some states fighting
over how to do the reports.  And each state working group can have 1 email
list, possibly on the FSP server.  This all sounds good to me.

jgmaynard

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2003, 04:33:07 pm »

First, I think the original idea of this post wasn't logical... One can come up with any combo here..... (eg. There's lots of people from California, so they like oceans, ergo will go to Maine, Delaware or New Hampshire). See what I mean?

As for the state data page, I would just say let the free market work - Each state gets both sides of an 8 1/2x11 sheet.... If you wanna draw pictures of cows, so be it. ;) but I wouldn't recommend it... lol...

Free companies have to design their products to sell to the most people, and it's each state's responsibility to do the best job they can.

But, that's just me. ;D

JM
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Russell Kanning

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2003, 11:19:35 pm »

     I think that your analysis is pretty good, stpeter.
     I have only lived in the Rocky Mountains and California, but I am a 'glass-eater'. 8) I would move to a 'free state' in Eastern Europe if it sounded promising. :)
     Probably many people from the West Coast would be more comfortable with ID/WY/MT than ME/NH/VT, but freedom is more important. All those signing up from FL/TX/CA are not hoping to find warm weather. We know what we are signing up for: 'Liberty in our Lifetime'
     Thanks to all of you guys doing the mundane work of the FSP, like organizing state advocacy and choosing paper/font sizes. I look forward to living in a 'Free State' with you.
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Hank

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2003, 10:24:03 am »

Quote
I would move to a 'free state' in Eastern Europe if it sounded promising.
So would I.
I'd even move to some remote near-Antarctic island (Falklands?) if it really could be a Free State.

I doubt there are more than a hundred who care enough for Freedom to pack up and start over in such a place.
They want a great paying job around the corner, a Starbucks on the corner, and a zoo.  They want to live in a zoo!
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Rearden

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2003, 11:22:48 am »

I've done some analysis of regional loyalty, and come up with the following numbers using the data from the last state breakdown:

WY can count on 577 votes from states in close proximity.  NH can count on 1046 votes from states in close proximity.  

The remaining 3072 votes are split between two primary regions: 2119 from the south/midwest region, and 953 from the west coast states.  These two regions will clearly be deciding where we go.

There are really two big questions here.

1.) Will those in the south prefer the east over the west, due to regional loyalty, or the west over the northeast, due to ancient grudges?

2.) Will those on the west coast prefer the west to the northeast, due to proximity, or the northeast over the mountain states due to east coast roots and a perceived cultural advantages?

It's going to be damn close, folks.  The sample on the "How Would You Vote..." thread had 95 votes, with WY winning by a nose over NH, 9-0 vs. 8-1.  That's a 2% sample of the voters, but it's hardly representative as the people who posted to that thread tend to be the most active on this forum.  Most of the membership isn't even registered here.

Anyway, take it for what it's worth.
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Tony Stelik

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2003, 11:37:11 am »

Quote
I would move to a 'free state' in Eastern Europe if it sounded promising.
So would I.
I'd even move to some remote near-Antarctic island (Falklands?) if it really could be a Free State.

I doubt there are more than a hundred who care enough for Freedom to pack up and start over in such a place.
They want a great paying job around the corner, a Starbucks on the corner, and a zoo.  They want to live in a zoo!
I would not. Europe is lost case. There would be no chance for success :(
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varrin

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2003, 03:24:23 pm »

There are many places in the world that are truely isolated where you can have freedom *right now*.  Go get that island already.  Part of the attraction of the FSP is having freedom and still being a part of some sort of community (i.e. a state in this case).  If you just want to escape, go do it now...  But this has nothing to do wiht the thread which is about predicting the vote.

I'm going to speculate this:  ID will do much better than the several unofficial polls say it will.  I'm going to guess the top three will be NH, ID and WY.  If I *had* to place a bet, I'd bet it'll be in this order:  NH > ID > WY.  

V-

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Green Star

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2003, 05:37:16 pm »

It's going to be damn close, folks.  The sample on the "How Would You Vote..." thread had 95 votes, with WY winning by a nose over NH, 9-0 vs. 8-1.  That's a 2% sample of the voters, but it's hardly representative as the people who posted to that thread tend to be the most active on this forum.  Most of the membership isn't even registered here.

No, WY is beating NH fairly handily, 45-32 (58%-42%, there was a bug there, which I fixed). But of course the sample is probably not representative, as you note.

If people ranked the states purely based on how close they are to their current residence, the pairwise matrix would be:

       WY    AK    ND    VT    SD    DE    MT    ID    NH    ME
WY       0  4664  1675  2137  1401  2083  3732  3608  2137  2359
AK      55     0    55  1013    55  1013    55    55  1013  1073
ND    3044  4664     0  2359   463  2305  3318  3435  2444  2575
VT    2582  3706  2360     0  2144   384  2754  2889  4048  4684
SD    3318  4664  4256  2575     0  2359  3465  3496  2575  2613
DE    2636  3706  2414  4335  2360     0  2790  2889  4335  4386
MT     987  4664  1401  1965  1254  1929     0  3526  2083  2118
ID    1111  4664  1284  1830  1223  1830  1193     0  1929  1997
NH    2582  3706  2275   671  2144   384  2636  2790     0  4684
ME    2360  3646  2144    35  2106   333  2601  2722    35     0
win/lose/tie: 3/6/0 0/9/0 6/3/0 7/2/0 8/1/0 9/0/0 2/7/0 1/8/0 5/4/0 4/5/0
and the result would be:

DE>SD>VT>ND>NH>ME>WY>MT>ID>AK

DE beats SD and ME beats WY by 1 vote, so those are as good as ties. The vote from the "How would you vote" thread is in some ways opposite this result, so maybe people want to escape as far as possible from their present lives?  ;)
« Last Edit: August 23, 2003, 05:39:48 pm by Green Star »
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Penfist

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2003, 05:56:44 pm »

This poll:

http://freestatecafe.org/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=10&PN=1

shows New Hampshire leading Wyoming by a two to one margin.
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Dave Mincin

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Re:predicting the vote
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2003, 06:31:59 pm »

Hey Math man....checked out your poll...good security it said I couldn't vote again! ;D

But on a serious note.  When I first joined up last August I though ID would be a good choice, not really knowing much about ID, my brother and his wife had worked out there for a year or so and had traveled much of the state.  There report ;D  A most beautiful and diverse state, but the winters suck! ::)  Hey not really even sure were they were to be honest.  Anyway ID has moved up and down on my list, but my final list it will be high.  Think ID and NH have much in common in that they offer the porcupines the most choices in terms of life styles, and the best job prospects.  Hello real world, can't be a Freedom fighter if you don't have a job and don't like were you live.  Sorry have listen to the go were no people are argument and have given in fair council, but just doesn't wash in the real world.

 Do believe this vote will come down to NH and ID. While I have strong personal feelings re the NH group, if I am honest, and logical I give the nod to NH simply simply because we have troops on the ground now to begin the fight!

Hey could be way off base, because maybe the porcupines will not look at all the factors and do hello real world as I have! ;D
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