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Author Topic: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise  (Read 15281 times)

John Edward Mercier

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Bernanke doesn't have any choice at this time.
The FED only has control when the market is in an inflationary tilt, or they can do quantitative easing... which China pretty much warned them pretty heavily not to undertake.
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Luck

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Not sure I understand, if the price of a 30ry bond is going from just over 97(today) to 109/110... how would that equate to interest rates going up?
And a year ago... the dollar was around 73. - John

Here's Walter's reply:

The 30 Year Bonds I am referring to is the spot futures contract ZBU9 with the following being the 30 minute chart:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ZB%20U9&o=&a=V%3A30&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=

As you can see on the 30 minute chart they just hit 119.07 and are now heading south. (as they go down interest rates go up)

From that chart at the bottom you will see: 5 min  15 min 30, 60, Daily, Weekly, Monthly. Click on Daily. Here you will see they hit 139 (actual not shown on the daily chart was 141) and you will see the base bottom last year was in the 110 range with my noted statement of yesterday being a probable move back to that point.

Additionally here is a long term (weekly) chart of the Dollar index you may find useful:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=

Hope this clears things up for you,

Walter
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Floridian

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Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2009, 01:24:26 pm »

ALERT - AUGUST 3RD 2009: Be on High Ground Warning - Aug 14 & 15th

Monday, August 3, 2009 4:03 PM
From: "CAFR1 National" <WalterBurien@CAFR1.com>
CAFR1 NATIONAL POST
 
Keep your eyes open, cash and supplies in hand, and be on high ground come Saturday Aug 15th 2009

Extreme price movements may happen after / around the 15th:

(Natural national emergency could trigger occurrence)

WJB - CAFR1

PS: Per Markets

METALS - UP - Silver from $13 maybe to $18

INTEREST RATES - UP -  (30 Year Bonds down from 119  range  to 110 or 109)

DOLLAR - ??? Maybe 73 to 75

DOW - DOWN - Maybe to 7100 to 7300

CRUDE OIL - UP - Maybe from 71 to $85

LUMBER - UP - Maybe from $200 to $250 - $270 (based on futures contract)

COTTON - UP - Maybe from 69 to 80


Not exactly Doomsday prediction, but at least we only have to wait a couple of weeks to find out.
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Tu ne cede malis.

Denis Goddard

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I bet my kids' college education that Walter is wrong.

Luck

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I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong.
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maxxoccupancy

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Why does no one spell things out in a few short sentences?  Five posts take up three pages?  If you can't summarize, don't bother posting because most people won't bother reading every friggin detail.
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rossby

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I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong.

... was that a "I hope someone remembers" or "I hope we still have power and running water"?
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Luck

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... was that a "I hope someone remembers" or "I hope we still have power and running water"? - B.D.
It was a "I hope someone will like to take a little time to post a follow-up on that stats." I suppose it will be a bit longer before utilities may stop.

http://Http://solari.com had someone's comment that linked to the following:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-19-future-shock
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-20-what-should-i-do
The first summarizes economic prospects and the second provides a good way to plan what actions to take, like maybe getting some of your money from the bank and keeping it on hand for a few months.
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CAFR1

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Not sure I understand, if the price of a 30ry bond is going from just over 97(today) to 109/110... how would that equate to interest rates going up?

And a year ago... the dollar was around 73.



John:

The 30 Year Bonds I am referring to is the spot futures contract ZBU9 with the following being the 30 minute chart:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ZB%20U9&o=&a=V%3A30&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=


As you can see on the 30 minute chart they just hit 119.07 and are now heading south. (as they go down interest rates go up)

From that chart at the bottom you will see: 5 min  15 min 30, 60, Daily, Weekly, Monthly. Click on Daily. Here you will see they hit 139 (actual not shown on the daily chart was 141) and you will see the base bottom last year was in the 110 range with my noted statement of yesterday being a probable move back to that point.

Additionally here is a long term (weekly) chart of the Dollar index you may find useful:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=

Hope this clears things up for you,

Walter

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Walter Burien
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Saint Johns, AZ 85936

Tel. (928) 445-3532

Please visit - http://TaxRetirement.com

CAFR1

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It was a "I hope someone will like to take a little time to post a follow-up on that stats." I suppose it will be a bit longer before utilities may stop.


Here is where things stand as of the close on 08/07/09:

US30 SEPT BONDS: 115.10 CLOSE  114.25 LOW
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=ZBU9&code=BSTK
(down about 4pts - $4000 per contract from 119 on the 3rd)


US SEPT DOLLAR INDEX - DX: 79.105 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=DXU9&code=BSTK
(took a big 1pt pop up on Friday - bait the minnows)

SILVER SEPT: 14.66 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=SIU9&code=BSTK
(up,up, up, and away)

COTTON OCT: 60.53 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=CTV9&code=BSTK
(picking up steam but will not spike up until the need sets in)

LUMBER SEPT: 197.10 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=LBU9&code=BSTK
(Down on Fri but picking up steam overall. Will not spike up until the need sets in)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Walter Burien
P. O. Box 2112
Saint Johns, AZ 85936

Tel. (928) 445-3532

Please visit - http://TaxRetirement.com

Dreepa

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I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong.
shouldn't you do that because you predicted it?
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Luck

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I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong. - Luck
Quote
shouldn't you do that because you predicted it? - Dreepa
* I didn't predict that, Walter did. I simply quoted him.

* He supplied stats a week ago above. Maybe he'll do so again soon. Here's what he said originally in BLUE plus what he posted above last week in PURPLE plus what the market seems to have done on Aug 14 in RED.

Keep your eyes open, cash and supplies in hand, and be on high ground come Saturday Aug 15th 2009
Extreme price movements may happen after / around the 15th:
(Natural national emergency could trigger occurrence)
WJB - CAFR1
PS: Per Markets

METALS - UP - Silver from $13 maybe to $18

SILVER SEPT: 14.66 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=SIU9&code=BSTK
(up,up, up, and away)

14.530 on Aug 17
NO

INTEREST RATES - UP -  (30 Year Bonds down from 119  range  to 110 or 109)
US30 SEPT BONDS: 115.10 CLOSE  114.25 LOW
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=ZBU9&code=BSTK
(down about 4pts - $4000 per contract from 119 on the 3rd)

118-315 on Aug 17
NO

DOLLAR - Huh Maybe 73 to 75
US SEPT DOLLAR INDEX - DX: 79.105 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=DXU9&code=BSTK
(took a big 1pt pop up on Friday - bait the minnows)

79.080 on Aug 17
NO

DOW - DOWN - Maybe to 7100 to 7300
9321.40 on Aug 14 (if I read it right)
NO

CRUDE OIL - UP - Maybe from 71 to $85
66.89 on Aug 17
NO

LUMBER - UP - Maybe from $200 to $250 - $270 (based on futures contract)

LUMBER SEPT: 197.10 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=LBU9&code=BSTK
(Down on Fri but picking up steam overall. Will not spike up until the need sets in)

189.50 on Aug 14
NO

COTTON - UP - Maybe from 69 to 80
COTTON OCT: 60.53 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=CTV9&code=BSTK
(picking up steam but will not spike up until the need sets in)

58.38   on Aug 17
NO

So far it looks like none of the predictions have yet proven to be correct. Should we wait another week?
« Last Edit: August 17, 2009, 12:07:23 am by Luck »
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Denis Goddard

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If you wait long enough, any prediction will come true.
Now, please ignore the hell out of whatever nutcake fed you that crap initially

rossby

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If you wait long enough, any prediction will come true.
Now, please ignore the hell out of whatever nutcake fed you that crap initially

Wake me up when Jesus returns. kthx.
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Dreepa

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If you wait long enough, any prediction will come true.
Now, please ignore the hell out of whatever nutcake fed you that crap initially

Wake me up when Jesus returns. kthx.
he did.. he worked in a record store in Quahog.
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