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Author Topic: Property Values & My First Post  (Read 3784 times)

Vann

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Property Values & My First Post
« on: February 25, 2003, 03:56:28 pm »

Hi first of all I just wanted to say Hi to everyone.  I just found about this movement today and I'm very interested, so you'll probably be hearing a lot more from me.

I had a question about Property Values in the proposed state.   If all of the sudden 20,000 people came knocking wouldn't property values skyrocket?  I know if I were a property owner I'd certainly jack my prices through the roof if I thought there was a market.  Any idea on how to combat this?  Maybe starting to buy property early and over an extended period of time to help assuage the possible market spikes?  Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts about this.

Vann Vaupel
A libertarian in Mississippi who hates it here
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JasonPSorens

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2003, 04:06:34 pm »

Welcome to the forum, Vann!

Think about it this way: 20,000 people would represent about a 4% increase in population in Wyoming, and less in other states.  Of course, the 20,000 FSP members will probably represent nearly 20,000 families, and thus a greater total population increase, but considering that the move is spread over five years or more, the increase in population should be small - and thus the increase in property values will also be small.  I wouldn't be surprised if a few localities had a large increase in property values, while some had virtually no increase, but most of the states we're considering have low property values already - even compared to Mississippi!  To see how our states compare to where you live, check out the "Cost of Living Calculator" - there's a link to it on the State Data page, http://www.freestateproject.org/state.htm .
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Vann

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2003, 04:38:27 pm »

It maybe only about 5% increase in population, but the average population increase in Wyoming from 1990 to 2000 was roughly 40,000.  Or about 4,000 people a year.  Inserting 20,000 people over five years would about double that average.  So it would be a 100% increase in the market.  I think this would cause a significant rise property values.  Especially in desirable areas.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm not complaining, God Bless the Free Market, I love it.  I'm just bringing this up a point of discussion.

population statistics from
http://www.centerwest.org/futures/people/population_wy.html
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maestro

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2003, 07:27:42 pm »

On the other hand, there is lots of land, and therefore lots of competition for any seller or renter, so they can't raise the prices significantly.
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FuturesGuy

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2003, 04:02:00 pm »

Keep in mind, too, that current property values in this country are as much of a bubble as the stock market was in 2000, especially in urban areas.  Easy credit and low interest rates have been able to maintain the bubble, but credit is drying up (as many top banks are now losing large amounts of money) and interest rates can't fall much further.  Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae (the biggest mortgage lenders in the country) are both significantly overextended, and it won't take much of a reversal in the national real-estate market to send them under!  If/when that happens, property values will plunge overnight.  I invest for a living, so I'm keeping a close eye on this situation.  Where I currently live in San Jose, property is so overvalued I already sold my place and I'm now renting by choice!  If anything, FSPers moving to our selected state will help support the local property values from otherwise collapsing; we won't cause any increase.
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vermass

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2003, 12:45:52 pm »

    In reality the migration or FPSer's will be spread out over a much greater length of time. I for instance am planing on moving in spring of '05. It may take me a year or so longer if a western state is chosen due to logistics. I can drive to VT or NH and check out property and jobs on my days off. I'll have a much harder time checking things out in WY or ID as I refuse to fly as long as these "security" measures are in place. If passangers were allowed to carry firearms on a plane, I willl fly THAT airline. If you read through this forum you will find many people are going to move as soon as a state is chosen.
     I wish those of you who wish to opt out of all states except one or two or "western states only people" ("or eastern states only") would reconsider, we need as many people as possible to move to the chosen state in order to be successful. Our numbers will be a HUGE factor in determining our success. I've posted a similar statement somewhere[?] in this forum. A state may be the best choice in all other ways [AK?] but if only 50% of the people will move there....Whereas if 90% of the people would move to the second best choice, than the second best choice becomes, in reality, the best choice!
   
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ShrineGuard

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2003, 09:25:48 pm »

Actually, the problem is easy to fix.  We simply have the government impose a maximum price on all of the land...Oh my God, what am I saying? ;)

Prices may be higher, but that shows the merit of our ideals.  As was said before, though, market competition will surely keep those prices down, though I'm sure price increases will be a good bit worse in the east than the west.

Oh, and yes, those safety features are horrible!  I got a little note slipped in my check on that said it had been looked through, and that locks may have been broken if any were on the bag.  What nonsense!  Why has America so easily given up freedom?
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LeRuineur6

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2003, 03:26:37 pm »

I just thought you guys might want to know a few things about Vermont:

1)  The housing market is SCREWED!  Hopefully the housing bubble will burst right before we all move, if the state ends up being VT.

2)  The job market is SCREWED!  Seriously, why even try in Vermont?  We'll have to try to start a large cluster of small businesses, because otherwise we'll all be unemployed for a very long time.

3)  This winter is REALLY FREAKING COLD!  It wasn't this cold last year, but my heating bill was $200 last month for my 650-sqft apartment.  Bleh.

4)  The socialists have financially ROBBED VT homeowners with MASS-Property Taxes in the name of socialized education!  It's called Act 60, look it up.

5)  This state's politics are finally moving a little further to the right as we elected a Republican for Governor (unheard of!) in 2002.

6)  The business climate is NOT friendly at ALL!  Enviro-pinko-communists have hijacked Vermont.  It's called Act 250, look it up.  I'm just trying to start a SMALL business and I have to get a permit, go through a waiting period, blah blah blah, blah blah blah, site photographs, CAD drawings of my area, landlord permission contracts, etc., etc...

sigh.
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JasonPSorens

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #8 on: March 03, 2003, 06:18:04 pm »

You're basically right, Ruineur - check out the "What I Learned in Vermont" thread on the "General Discussion" board.  The economic situation in VT is very dire, because of over-regulation.  Business is undercapitalized and overtaxed.  On the other hand, the political opportunity structure is fairly favorable in VT.  So moving there would be a question of surviving until we could make some good policy changes.  Perhaps too risky for some!
« Last Edit: March 03, 2003, 06:18:39 pm by JasonPSorens »
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

jgmaynard

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Re:Property Values & My First Post
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2003, 10:29:00 am »

Hey LeRuineur6:

Cross the Connecticut river. You are welcome in New Hampshire!

No Sales Tax, No Income tax, no helmet law, no mandatory insurance, 2nd easiest gun laws in the country, small business friendly, good job and housing markets, a Governor who is CUTTING the budget and taxes, etc., etc...

I really think NH is the freest state in the union. Will be more so once 20,000 porcupines get here...

James Maynard
2003 Keene, NH City Council candidate

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