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Author Topic: Proximity and related issues  (Read 32045 times)

Penfist

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Proximity and related issues
« on: October 27, 2002, 01:24:45 pm »

I am hearing a lot of opinions that any eastern state choice is doomed to failure due to the ease with which the feds would be able to interfere in matters. Although such speculation sounds plausible, I'm wondering if any of you have any idea if there would be a formulaic way to determine and prove such a theory.

I think the feds will be watching us closely no matter where we locate. Why will it be easier for them to stop us in New Hampshire than it would be in Montana or South Dakota? Waco is far removed from the seat of power. Ruby Ridge was far removed from the seat of power. The "Freemen" weren't operating anywhere near Washington, D.C.

Of course, the FSP is a completely different concept than any of the three examples I list, but if Washington, D.C. decides to paint the FSP as a weird cult or dangerous movement, it really won't matter what our geographic location is.

Someone convince me otherwise and give me a way to calculate scientifically how distance from Washington/liberalism=added chance of success.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2003, 10:12:56 pm by JasonPSorens »
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Steve

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Re:Calculating the level of federal interference by location
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2002, 02:54:36 pm »

Afghanistan and Iraq are also far from the seat of US federal power.  Fortunately in this day and age, CNN's cameras are never far away.  Furthermore, as long as we don't bear much resemblance to Branch Davidians, there will be no Waco-like incidents.  Jason, your wife won't let you have a harem of young girls, will she?
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Penfist

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Re:Calculating the level of federal interference by location
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2002, 09:39:07 am »

Good points, Joe.

I want to be rural without being too rural. I've already narrowed things down to Maine, New Hampshire or Montana for a variety of reasons. I don't want to be too far from medical care, and I love northern forests.

Also, as you pointed out, the Feds could wipe an isolated group off the face of the earth without anyone noticing, if they wanted too. With the current level of dishonesty and complete lack of morality being displayed by most of the Feds during my lifetime, I do want some neighbors who might miss me if I "disappeared."

I'm already pricing acreage in the four states, with the idea that once we reach 5,000, I'm going to dump my 401k and invest in land in the chosen state.
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MLiq

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Proximity and related issues
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2003, 02:34:44 am »

QUOTE:
"I just don't see such close proximity to the statist political and media machines (again, where they can easily march their reinforcements in when needed) as being an advantage. "

First of all, the US army does not keep most of its troops in NYC or DE.  They are all over the country.  No matter where we are it is quite easy for them to take action very quickly.  

Why it is good to be not in the middle of nowhere:  We need media exposure.  If you don't want the government to stop us, the media is our best weapon.  If it comes down to physical combat, I'm afraid I would place my wagers on the government.  But if we win the debate in front of the people, we win.  

The media is necessary to promote the FSP because we need all the people we can get.  We also need them to tell the world WHY we are doing things that most will not immediately understand due to the lies our gov. feeds them about drug legalization, and other issues.  True the news media has a liberal bent.  But there are many independent thinkers and even Libertarians in the national news media, print, television and radio.  

Add to that the fact that most of the country feels very set apart from the middle of the country, and states like Wyoming and the rest.  They are seen as  places were people who want to escape society go to be lawless and plot to overthrow the government.  I'm sorry, but this IS what people think because the only major news story to ever come out of these states besides Mt. St. Helens erupting has been militia groups.  People and the news media will think nothing of it if the government stops us out there.  They may even covertly sabotage us just as we start to realize success.  It would be much easier to do that in an isolated area.  The media is our safety shield and the best weapon and recruiting tool we could have.  

Many people in the US have not heard of FSP.  If they do, significant portions may want to move there.  They may only want to do so because of legalized marijuana or other single-minded reasons, however they will help our cause just the same.  They will be less likely to move to any of the Western states when they do not feel as strongly about all aspects of Libertarianism as we do.  The Eastern states are simply less far away from where most people live, increasing the odds more people will move there.  People don't like to move halfway across the country, and people do not like to live in the middle of the country.  The reason that so few people live in those states, and more people live in the northeast than anywhere else, is a demonstration of where most American's prefer to live.  

We need to appeal to all of America to gain the support we will need for FSPs success.  Very few people will want to move to the Western states compared to those that would be willing to move to NH or DE or VT or ME for our cause.  You may want to escape society and the northeast but that is where the ultimate power lies, you cannot change that.  This is not the Start Your Own Libertarian Nation Project, we WILL have to deal with the nation as a whole and the federal government specifically in the long-term.  And we do need all the supporters we can get.


For example:
If we assume that the majority of people will not be willing to move more than 12 hours drive away for our cause,  we can estimate the pool of people we would draw from in each state.  I believe it is fair to assume that most people do not want to move more than one days drive away from where they currently are.  Many of us are more committed than that, but many more people will not be.  

These figures do not include Canadian population.  All figures rounded up to one digit after the decimal.

the western states pools:
SD: 25 million
ID: 31.3 million, assuming that 10 million of CA is within 12 hours.  A generous estimate considering LA has over 20 million in the MSA, San diego a good few million out of 35 for the state.
MT, ND: less than above
WY: 23 million

the northeastern states:  
NH's pool about 82 million
DE's pool is over 105 million.

These are estimates made using this data:
http://eire.census.gov/popest/data/states/tables/ST-EST2002-01.php

I know some of you will take this as further proof you do not want any of the eastern states but let me remind you that the current group only numbers 2,300, we need a HELL of a lot more people to make this a reality, no matter what the state.  Many of these people will not be die hard enough to move halfway across the country to a place that has less varied job opportunities and much lower average salaries, nevermind the lack of any real proximity to a large urban area, which is also important to most people.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2003, 10:10:23 pm by JasonPSorens »
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Robert H.

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2003, 05:31:57 am »

First of all, the US army does not keep most of its troops in NYC or DE.  They are all over the country.  No matter where we are it is quite easy for them to take action very quickly.  

True, but then again, we're setting ourselves up to secure Jeffersonian liberty, not to fight the government, so troop locations are really inconsequential.  And NY and DC are perceived as being under greater threat of terrorism than other locations in the country.  For that reason, any group advocating a society with lessened scrutiny of its population within range of these "security concerns" will itself be subjected to a greater degree of scrutiny and criticism.

Quote
The media is necessary to promote the FSP because we need all the people we can get.  We also need them to tell the world WHY we are doing things that most will not immediately understand due to the lies our gov. feeds them about drug legalization, and other issues.  True the news media has a liberal bent.  But there are many independent thinkers and even Libertarians in the national news media, print, television and radio.  

The media is not going to serve as a bully pulpit for the FSP and its views.  Some media coverage is good in order to get the word out to those who don't have net access or whatever, but the media does a hatchet job on liberty and Constitution-minded folks far more often than it assists them.  And do you really expect to be able to counteract all of society's prejudices toward libertarians and be able to thoughtfully respond to criticisms in such a way as to appeal to thinking voters in today's soundbite media culture?  Even the most famous and influential people out there hardly get more than a thirty-second nod.

Jeffesonian principles are not well expressed or defended in the soundbite medium.  Statists, on the other hand, can use that forum quite effectively to stage their emotional pleas and class-warfare rhetoric.

Quote
Add to that the fact that most of the country feels very set apart from the middle of the country, and states like Wyoming and the rest.  They are seen as  places were people who want to escape society go to be lawless and plot to overthrow the government.  I'm sorry, but this IS what people think because the only major news story to ever come out of these states besides Mt. St. Helens erupting has been militia groups.  People and the news media will think nothing of it if the government stops us out there.

Transfer a movement like this to the east, and what's to stop those same people who view the west so blandly from trying to portray you as an eastern version of the militia movement?  You're right when you say that most easterners don't care about what goes on out west, and that is a decided advantage.  Establish this project in their midst; however, and they will care very much when the media and politicians try telling them that they have a "bunch of gun, dope and prostitution fanatics" "endangering" and "corrupting" their children.

They'll paint us as an eastern extremist movement; a change of venue, not perspective.  They'll still look at us as lunatics, and some who might otherwise side with us will not do so just to save their hard-earned reputations from the political and media onslaught.  Easterners are arguably more image-conscious, and are, therefore, more likely to be intimidated by media and social pressure.  Westerners are used to being portrayed as "weirdos," and are less likely to be influenced by what New Yorkers think of them.

Quote
They may even covertly sabotage us just as we start to realize success.  It would be much easier to do that in an isolated area.  The media is our safety shield and the best weapon and recruiting tool we could have.  

We're open to sabotage no matter what, and I believe that various elements will seek us out as protection for their illegal activities no matter where we go.  Some will also try to hijack our banner as support for their own causes.  But again, the media is hardly a shield for anyone, and in the groups we intend on concentrating in, we'd be able to support one another quite effectively.

As for recruiting, again, we do want to bring others on board, but at the same time, we need to be selective about who they are.  If we're located where more people can reach us more easily, we're that much more exposed to more extremists attempting to hijack or mischaracterize us, and where those involved in illegal activites can try hiding in our midst for protection.  Drug traffickers are the major risk to us here.

Quote
Many people in the US have not heard of FSP.  If they do, significant portions may want to move there.  They may only want to do so because of legalized marijuana or other single-minded reasons, however they will help our cause just the same.  They will be less likely to move to any of the Western states when they do not feel as strongly about all aspects of Libertarianism as we do.

Do we really want those in our midst who don't feel strongly about we're trying to do?  Would they not simply water us down?  We could use a number of additional folks who could just be counted on for votes if nothing else, but those we're trying to recruit should be pretty much hardcore, at least in the beginning while we're trying to get a foothold in the system.

(continued...)

Robert H.

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2003, 05:39:08 am »

Quote
The Eastern states are simply less far away from where most people live, increasing the odds more people will move there.  People don't like to move halfway across the country, and people do not like to live in the middle of the country.  The reason that so few people live in those states, and more people live in the northeast than anywhere else, is a demonstration of where most American's prefer to live.

And what sort of government and culture dominates those places where most Americans live?  Statism.  Is this then a demonstration of how most of them feel about the proper role of government and society?  If so, why would we want to be in such close proximity to them?

Quote
We need to appeal to all of America to gain the support we will need for FSPs success.

Not so.  We need only concentrate the appropriate amount of backing and effort in one or more appropriate places.  The very reason for this state-centered effort is because all of America does not find appeal in our ideas.  If they did, such a project would not be necessary, and the LP would be a major national party.

Quote
Very few people will want to move to the Western states compared to those that would be willing to move to NH or DE or VT or ME for our cause.

We're looking for maybe one in a thousand as it is.  We're not going to draw huge numbers, at least not until we can demonstrate that our ideas can succeed.  Most of the liberty-minded folks I've discussed the FSP with aren't interested because they don't think it'll work and they don't want people thinking they've joined a cult or a militia.

Quote
You may want to escape society and the northeast but that is where the ultimate power lies, you cannot change that.  This is not the Start Your Own Libertarian Nation Project, we WILL have to deal with the nation as a whole and the federal government specifically in the long-term.  And we do need all the supporters we can get.

Why are western advocates constantly accused of wanting to escape something?!  Escape has nothing to do with it!  Flying under the radar and not making waves until we have built a boat sufficient to ride them out is another thing altogether.  This is a fledgling, inexperienced political movement with no significant financial or celebrity backing, and it cannot afford to rush off pel-mel into the thick of the fight.

Would you take a little league time to the World Series hoping to win?  How about a junior high school basketball team to the Final Four?  In the political sense, we are little leaguers; we are junior highers.  Yes, the northeast is the base of power, statist power, the power to crush our little league team and discredit advocates of Jeffesonian liberty for years to come.  

Is it really so shocking a proposal to suggest that we amateurs would likely come out second after stepping into the ring with the political Muhammed Ali's of our day?  Is it too much to ask that we take on some light-weight contenders first?  That we try lifting some political weights and building some endurance before taking on the experienced, conditioned political heavyweights?

Quote
I know some of you will take this as further proof you do not want any of the eastern states but let me remind you that the current group only numbers 2,300, we need a HELL of a lot more people to make this a reality, no matter what the state.  

Many of these people will not be die hard enough to move halfway across the country to a place that has less varied job opportunities and much lower average salaries, nevermind the lack of any real proximity to a large urban area, which is also important to most people.

Most people live where they do because they were born there or else close to there, and most of them are descended from those who first settled or otherwise immigrated to the coastal towns and villages that became our modern eastern cities.  The United States is not a "planned community" where everyone just chose where they'd like to live.  They're likely where they are because someone else, or a great many someone's, "chose" for them before they were born.

Again, we're not looking to flood our ranks with just anyone; we need a specific type of butterfly for this collection.  Those who are more in line with us will make more effort to join us, and we may be able to help others join us once we've established ourselves to some degree.  

Contrary to what some have suggested, going west is not going to the Moon.

TedApelt

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2003, 11:37:03 am »

Wherever we go, we will get the same amount of media attention, and it will be both good and bad.
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RidleyReport

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2003, 11:01:06 pm »

RobertH wrote:

<<Jeffersonian principles are not well expressed or defended in the soundbite medium.  Statists, on the other hand, can use that forum quite effectively to stage their emotional pleas and class-warfare rhetoric.>>

You're underestimating Jeffersonian principles.  Any idea that is good should be simple enough to sum up in a soundbite.  It's our job to break the message down to its brutally honest core and our failing if we can't.  

And don't assume that libertarian soundbites can't have at least as much emotional punch as statist bites.

Example:

A couple years ago one of the newsmagazines did a story about a debilitated back pain sufferer who committed suicide because he couldn't get a doctor to prescribe him decent pain meds (controlled substance concerns, etc.).  I can't remember his name, but for the sake of discussion I'll call him Jack Thompson.  

If you were a congressman and Thompson lived in your district, and if his family wanted you to do so, there are plenty of emotional things you could do.  Hop in front of the cameras with his widow and let her level the canon at prohibition.  Or do it yourself:  "Federal drug prohibition killed Jack Thompson!  Federal drug prohibition kills 5 innocents like him every week.  Mr. President...tear down this prohibition!"  :)

Anyway, point being: it is possible to win the PR war on the East Coast even when the press disagrees with you.  Reagan did it by keeping the message simple and making himself easy to like personally.   No reason we can't do the same, especially considering that, unless they live in the FS,  our policy proposals are unlikely to have near as much direct impact on them than Reagan's did.  


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ZionCurtain

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2003, 04:04:34 pm »

Quote from: MLiq

Add to that the fact that most of the country feels very set apart from the middle of the country, and states like Wyoming and the rest.  They are seen as  places were people who want to escape society go to be lawless and plot to overthrow the government.  I'm sorry, but this IS what people think because the only major news story to ever come out of these states besides Mt. St. Helens erupting has been militia groups.  People and the news media will think nothing of it if the government stops us out there.  

The reason that so few people live in those states, and more people live in the northeast than anywhere else, is a demonstration of where most American's prefer to live.  
Quote
Sorry to pick a few things out of your post but Mt St Helens is in Washington which is neither in the middle of the country or in one of the FSP states. Also the reason that more people live on the Eastern seabord is because that is where our country started and people tend to live in coastal areas. Are you in need of a history and geography refresher course? As for being assaulted by the government, I think we are not trying to be some Branch Davidians we are out for political change.
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Hank

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2003, 11:21:56 am »

ZionCurtain made this great explained why east coast states have so many people.
Quote
Also the reason that more people live on the Eastern seabord is because that is where our country started and people tend to live in coastal areas.
The east coast, especially the central east coast, has a huge pool of potential Porcupines who would flee to a nearby Free State if they had one. For NY, PA, NJ, MD, there is only one state that qualifies as close enough to live but still visit the old homestead and those "left behind".
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jgmaynard

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2003, 11:28:49 am »

The people of Mass are also fleeing.... And their following the little "N" on their compasses.....

We know... We have a list of 20,000 of them.... :D

JM
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rambler42

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2003, 02:39:25 pm »

one of the biggest logistical problems of the eastern seaboard states is the probability of statist carpetbaggins and big money fed into the political machine to fight us. The New Hampshire primary is considered a very important barometer of the national mindset, and they will be loathe to be shown up by a bunch of libertarians.

I have worked in political circles for about 20 years, and the trend is for the public to follow whichever candidate gets the most media exposure (I worked for an immensely qualified losing candidate against a six term entrenched encumbent last year; our candidate ran 42% WITHOUT the endorsement of ANY of the major media in the area, so it was a devastating loss, as the media coverage could have made the difference).

add to the fact New Hampshire's homeschool laws, which are more restrictive than our present state's, and this is why we have opted out of all eastern seaboard states.
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Sebastian

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2003, 02:46:58 pm »

Present state being Wisconsin?

http://www.atr.org/maps/15.html
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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2003, 02:54:43 pm »

The New Hampshire primary is considered a very important barometer of the national mindset, and they will be loathe to be shown up by a bunch of libertarians.

It is?  New Hampshire voted for Pat Buchanan and John McCain in the last two Republican presidential primaries.  I think that it is Iowa that is generally considered to be first real nation-wide barometer.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2003, 03:00:24 pm by Karl Beisel »
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rambler42

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Re:Why being close the DC & NY media/government machine is a good thing
« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2003, 03:44:21 pm »

I don't know where they get their information on Wisconsin being "high regulation"; that is very misleading. ALL we have to do is file a one page form with the state Department of Education stating how many children we are homeschooling (NO standardized testing, NO curriculum approval)
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