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Author Topic: Undecided in the vote?  (Read 3894 times)

Stumpy

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Undecided in the vote?
« on: July 04, 2003, 03:29:31 pm »

Are you undecided about how you are going to vote?

Has anything posted here swayed anyone in either direction?

Or, is this just entertainment?
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Eman Resu

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2003, 04:19:11 pm »

I have no idea where to vote for. It's all a jumbled mess to me.

I'm so confused!  :'(

But honestly, I don't think it matters much what state we vote for. If we get a good number of liberty-minded folk all gathering in one place, it can't help but be a Good Thing(tm)!  ;D

--David
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jgmaynard

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2003, 06:42:37 pm »

We'll love to have you Eman, no matter what state we are in. :D

JM
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Eman Resu

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2003, 10:10:11 pm »

We'll love to have you Eman, no matter what state we are in. :D

JM

Hey thanks! :)

No matter what state we end up in, I think being in such close proximity to so many other liberty-minded folk will be a comfort and inspiration to us all.

I have a request to the forum users in helping me decide in what order I should vote.

My ultimate wish is that someone would generously apply some strict, hardcore, first order predicate informal logic to the debate as to which state has the best chance of allowing the FSP to attain it's fundamental goals.

Barring that, I would settle for something almost as useful, IMHO.

Mr. Sorens' "Re-Examination of the State Comparison Matrix" (http://www.freestateproject.org/stateanalysis2.htm) is a great run-down/sum up/overview of the states and their pros/cons. It suggests that each state can be considered "the best state", if some variables are given more/less weight.

So, I would be very grateful if a few posters could take a short break from debating over which state should be the Free State, and start debating a little bit as to which of these variables are of the most importance.

Are available jobs of the utmost importance? Without jobs, we'd have to move back to where we came from, (or would we?) and the project would fail. Or would it?

Is political culture of the utmost importance? If the state votes mostly liberal, does that really mean we have more work ahead of us? Or are the numbers misleading? What would be more difficult, converting Democrat voters, Republican voters, or non-voters? Does any of that even matter? Do I have any idea what I'm talking about? :P

Excuse me if this topic has already been brought up. I'm new to these forums. I looked through the topics, but couldn't find anything similar.

Is this thread ok to start this kind of discussion, or should this go in a new thread?

Thanks!
--David
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JasonPSorens

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2003, 10:18:33 pm »

So, I would be very grateful if a few posters could take a short break from debating over which state should be the Free State, and start debating a little bit as to which of these variables are of the most importance.

This looks like what you're wanting. ;)
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Eman Resu

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2003, 10:54:27 pm »

Whoops!  ;D Don't I feel silly! That's what I get for not looking hard enough, I suppose.

I don't suppose my other wish for hardcore logic applied to the Free State question has already been granted as well?

That would be so cool :D

--David
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Kelton Baker

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2003, 12:22:50 am »

A lot of emphasis has been placed on forming a ranking of the states, and while this will be how we will vote, remember that the Simple Condorcet method in its calculations actually will involve a pairwise ranking of each and every state against each other, the rankings just simplify the steps.

The reason I point this out is because it is an easier, more thoughtful way to decide how make rankings of the states, doing it the long-hand method, like this:

AK__vs__DE,AK__vs__ID,AK__vs__ME,AK__vs__MT,AK__vs__ND,AK__vs__NH,AK__vs__SD,AK__vs__VT,AK__vs__WY
then you see how AK compares to all the other states, one at a time and taking note, If you gain some new info, or want to reanalyze them, try it all over again, with a differently ordered set:

DE__vs__AK,DE__vs__ID,DE__vs__ME.... and so forth.


If you have difficulty deciding between two states, do some research on those two states and go back.

Comparing each state to just one other state, one at a time is easier on the brain than trying to compare each state to all the other 9!


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Eman Resu

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2003, 02:53:15 am »

I'm wondering, could there be a formal debate (perhaps in a structured wiki format?), not on which state to go to, but focused solely on the importance of the various factors?

The spreadsheet thread was an interesting read, as well as the ranking of the variables thread, but neither really quenched my thirst or scratched my itch.

I'd really love to hear the members of this forum duking it out as to why [FederalDependancy] is obviously a much more important factor than [GunLaws] and [HomeSchooling], or vice versa. And the less tangible factors, which were absent from the spreadsheets, would be able to go toe-to-toe with the more tangible factors.

I'm trying to keep up with all these threads and topics, but I have to admit, my eyes glaze over, and I end up just as clueless and confused as when I started. I also have a hard time keeping track of what's fact and what's opinion, which doesn't help in my figuring out how to vote.

I read and read and read, but I can't see the forest for the trees. I'd really appreciate a higher-level debate. I need to make it all simple and poignant, for I am a simple man.

Surely I'm not the only one here that feels this way, am I? If I am, I'll just scurry off in the corner and keep quiet  :P

--David
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Kelton Baker

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2003, 09:56:14 am »

The number one factor that really has swayed me has been how people vote in our candidate states.  While the laws and constitutions and court decisions in our candidate states really are important, I think that the way people have demonstrated how they are willing to vote says even more.  After all, the laws in a state are not so determinate of what kind of people we will be dealing with as are voting trends and who they are willing to install in power.  What I find compelling is voting percentages voting for Constitution party and LP, and for libertarian-leaning major party candidates, I'm still looking for that info for each state, posted somewhere around here, but...

Here's a ranking of RLC- leaning candidates:
Robert tipped me off to Tim Condon's new paper,
http://www.freestateproject.org/wyoming_20feb03.htm
in which Tim cited the RLC Liberty index.
http://www.republicanliberty.org/libdex/index.htm

Of course the RLC never mentions David Nolan, they just swiped his idea with their "libergraph".

I looked at the rollcall votes for last year, it looks like a good libertarian index although some of the votes are hard to understand, and I had one question about a vote to fund 5 school-choice demonstration projects to the tune of $50 million - the position of the compiler of this index was in favor of this program. I have a problem with this for two reasons: not in the Constitution, and "school choice" includes such state education programs as charter schools. However most libertarian think tanks favor "school choice" as well, so the compiler is in the "think-tank mainstream" on this one (and they are all wrong if you ask me).

But generally the index appears to be a pretty reliable one, for us.

I had a problem with how to rate our states. First, how do you weigh senate vs house positions? Some of our states have two reps, some one. The states with two thus do not have everyone in the state voting for them. However I just averaged senate and house seats as if they were equivalent. The other issue is, do we want a most recent snapshot, or the whole 10 years of data he has? I opted to go the whole 10 year route, thus taking in more elected officials (some who are no longer there) and more roll call votes. This gives us more data points. The downside of course is that it may ignore recent trends, but oh, well! I have the little spreadsheet where I put this together if anyone wants to check my work.

Here are the ratings of Congresspersons elected in these states over the last 10 years, based on personal freedom. Higher numbers are better:

WY 67.4
ID 65.6
AK 64.0
NH 61.7
MT 57.0
SD 47.8
ME 47.5
VT 42.0
DE 39.3
ND 36.3

Here are the economic freedom ratings.

WY 79.2
NH 74.7
ID 72.3
AK 67.0
MT 52.4
DE 51.5
SD 50.0
ME 45.4
VT 32.7
ND 27.0

Here are both ratings combined, for a freedom rating:

WY 73.3
ID 68.9
NH 68.2
AK 65.5
MT 54.7
SD 48.9
ME 46.4
DE 45.4
VT 37.3
ND 31.6

Interesting how this confirms, via a completely different route, the earlier spreadsheet analysis (using indicators like seatbelt laws and gun laws) that WY, ID and NH are our 3 most free states. And big surprise, ME is not last place this time.  ::)  Can someone tell me how ND does such a good job of electing such a collection of authoritarian jerks? What's wrong with them, anyway?

I'm getting very confident we have a good picture of the culture of freedom in our states, lately.

I will add this rating to the big spreadsheet. Not sure whether I should break it out into two rows (economic and personal freedom) or just used the combined measure. Probably go the latter route...
 
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« Last Edit: July 05, 2003, 09:58:20 am by exitus... »
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Dave Mincin

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Re:Undecided in the vote?
« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2003, 11:05:15 am »

Hi Eman and welcome aboard!

First your comment on being a "common man."   Did you not sign the Statement of Intent on an article of faith?  You have pledged on you word of honor to go to one small state and become a political activist.  Hell you don't even know what state that will be?  To me that makes you much more that a common man, a lover of FREEDOM I would say!

You question on which weights re the spreadsheets is will taken.  Which are, hell I don't know, do you, does anyone?

For myself I have been so fortunate to meet well over 100 real live porcupines, most not just to meet, but to talk to and share thoughts, and ideas, to laugh with and share a beverage!  My thought, WOW what incredible folks, I know we can move mountains together.

To this point we have been a computer generated organization, most of our members being computer literate, myself excluded. To those who have put the numbers, the statistics, and the spreadsheets together I will always be indebted, without them we would not have ten states to vote on.

Sure use the statistics, play with them as you like, use them to help make you decision, but please do not forget that so much of our sucess will be based on things that statistics can not measure.

These thread can tell you a lot that the spreadsheets can not.  I am hopeful you will read them, get to know some of the folks on them and make your decision based on the whole picture, not just the numbers.

My decision came from the heart.  I hopeful that you will let you heart play a part in your decision too.

Again welcome, and know that we can and will move mountains.  I look forward to meeting you and working with you in the FREE STATE!

Dave
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