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Author Topic: High-Tech Employment Calculations  (Read 8719 times)

LeRuineur6

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High-Tech Employment Calculations
« on: July 01, 2003, 05:44:56 pm »

This is my reply to a thread from the Prospective Members forum.  I believe it belongs on here instead.  Also, I haven't seen this calculation done before so I thought I would start a new thread.

Quote
I don't want a LARGE house, I want A house

I wanted one as well while living in Utah a few years ago during the economic boom.  Utahns called the state "Silicon Desert."

Regardless of all the hype, I was a very experienced high-tech professional and the only work I could find within an hour of Ogden was rare contract work and I was an experienced job hunter (I took some expensive classes on finding jobs.)

Finding a job is not easy, especially in one of the worst economies in the history of our country, and especially in a state (such as WY or VT) with one of the largest rate of college-graduate move-outs, and least jobs, in the country.

NH has 109,400 new projected jobs in a the ten-year period of 2000-2010.  Let's assume that NH wins the vote.  Great, so now we have to get 20,000 members.  Now let's assume that we achieve 20,000 members in early 2006. (3-year deadline in the guidelines means 2006 deadline for many of us)

It's 2006, we have 20,000 members signed up, and we all start moving to NH.  We have only 5 years to finish moving to NH, according to the guidelines.  Assuming the statistic is correct that 25% of the FSP are retirees, that means we'll need to find 15,000 jobs in NH.  That means we'll need 15,000 jobs in 5 years.  109,400 jobs in 10 years divides out to be 10,940 new jobs per year.  Therefore, we could all theoretically move to NH in 1.5 years.  Theoretically.

However, please recall the well-known fact that FSP members are "disproportionately high-tech professionals and computer geeks."  Thus, let's be "conservative" and assume that only 30% of us (non-retirees) will need high-tech jobs.  That's an estimated 4,500 high-tech jobs that will need to be available for FSP members.

Will NH have 4,500 high-tech jobs in 5 years?  Here are the high-tech job projections for NH over the next 10 years, divided by 2, to project for only 5 years:

Computer Software Engineers, Applications:  3,861 / 2 = 1,930 jobs
Computer Support Specialists:  1,550 / 2 = 775 jobs
Computer Specialists, All Other:  1,211 / 2 = 605 jobs
Computer Systems Analysts:  944 / 2 = 472 jobs
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software:  773 / 2 = 386 jobs
Network and Computer Systems Administrators:  684 / 2 = 342 jobs
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts:  525 / 2 = 262 jobs
Database Administrators:  178 / 2 = 89 jobs
Desktop Publishers:  142 / 2 = 71 jobs

Total Needed High-Tech Jobs in 5 years:  4,500 jobs
Total High-Tech Jobs in NH in 5 years:  4,932 Jobs
Difference:  432 jobs (not much!)

See page 35 of this report for the data behind these high-tech job projections for NH:
http://www.nhes.state.nh.us/elmi/pdfzip/econstat/projections/proj00-10/proj00-10.pdf

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention one thing.  Many FSPers are not going to move to the target state alone.  They will hopefully bring their spouse if they're married.  ;) And their children, too!  This fact makes my estimates very, very conservative.

In conclusion, we may squeeeeeeze by with barely 10%-too-many high-tech jobs in NH.  That is, if we steal every single available high-tech job in NH for FIVE consecutive years.  That's not too many jobs by any means.

I would like to see if someone can calculate how many dozens of years it will be before WY (for example) can employ 4,500 out-of-state high-tech workers.  Or how many of WY's 18,000 jobs (over 5 years) are only minimum-wage jobs?

I would also like to see if anyone can calculate how many REAL people are going to move to the Free State.  It sure won't be 20,000.  Could it be 30,000?  35,000?  How many are married and single?  How many kids are they bringing?  Should we do a poll?  This statistic alone could be a deal-breaker if you think about it...
« Last Edit: July 01, 2003, 05:46:03 pm by LeRuineur6 »
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ZionCurtain

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2003, 06:03:48 pm »

However, please recall the well-known fact that FSP members are "disproportionately high-tech professionals and computer geeks."

Where is the evidence of this well known fact? Just curious where you came across this info, or if it is BS.
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Sebastian

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2003, 07:22:25 pm »

If businesses know that almost 5,000 'high-tech professionals and computer geeks' are moving to a business friendly state, I assume the projected job growth in that sector might increase as a result.
Quote
Many FSPers are not going to move to the target state alone.  They will hopefully bring their spouse if they're married.
Wouldn't they most likely both sign up as FSP members? I also assume that if a couple moves with kids, it may be that one of the parents will not require a (full-time) job (as that parent will raise the kids).
« Last Edit: July 01, 2003, 07:23:48 pm by Sebastian »
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LeRuineur6

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2003, 11:24:31 am »

Quote
However, please recall the well-known fact that FSP members are "disproportionately high-tech professionals and computer geeks."

Where is the evidence of this well known fact? Just curious where you came across this info, or if it is BS.

That quote is attributable to Jason Sorens, President of the FSP, if I'm not mistaken.  It was quoted as being from him in a news article.

Quote
If businesses know that almost 5,000 'high-tech professionals and computer geeks' are moving to a business friendly state, I assume the projected job growth in that sector might increase as a result.

That is possible.  Companies are always looking for talent, and those companies in Boston would not have to go far to find it in NH.
WY has far less high-tech industry, infrastructure, and investment, so I could not see the same thing happen there anytime soon.

Quote
Wouldn't they most likely both sign up as FSP members?

Actually, no.  If your spouse is not an activist, he or she is not supposed to sign up for the FSP!  We're counting on 20,000 activists.  I've been trying to tell people that for quite some time but no one seems to care that the number of activists could be artificially inflated by spouses signing up who are not activists!

Quote
I also assume that if a couple moves with kids, it may be that one of the parents will not require a (full-time) job (as that parent will raise the kids).

On the contrary.  Moving is resetting your own career to a degree.  Thus, moving and having a child makes your spouse more likely to need a job than just staying where you are and having a child!
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ZionCurtain

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2003, 11:31:02 am »

This is my reply to a thread from the Prospective Members forum.  I believe it belongs on here instead.  Also, I haven't seen this calculation done before so I thought I would start a new thread.

Quote
I don't want a LARGE house, I want A house

I wanted one as well while living in Utah a few years ago during the economic boom.  Utahns called the state "Silicon Desert."

Regardless of all the hype, I was a very experienced high-tech professional and the only work I could find within an hour of Ogden was rare contract work and I was an experienced job hunter (I took some expensive classes on finding jobs.)

Finding a job is not easy, especially in one of the worst economies in the history of our country, and especially in a state (such as WY or VT) with one of the largest rate of college-graduate move-outs, and least jobs, in the country.

NH has 109,400 new projected jobs in a the ten-year period of 2000-2010.  Let's assume that NH wins the vote.  Great, so now we have to get 20,000 members.  Now let's assume that we achieve 20,000 members in early 2006. (3-year deadline in the guidelines means 2006 deadline for many of us)

It's 2006, we have 20,000 members signed up, and we all start moving to NH.  We have only 5 years to finish moving to NH, according to the guidelines.  Assuming the statistic is correct that 25% of the FSP are retirees, that means we'll need to find 15,000 jobs in NH.  That means we'll need 15,000 jobs in 5 years.  109,400 jobs in 10 years divides out to be 10,940 new jobs per year.  Therefore, we could all theoretically move to NH in 1.5 years.  Theoretically.

However, please recall the well-known fact that FSP members are "disproportionately high-tech professionals and computer geeks."  Thus, let's be "conservative" and assume that only 30% of us (non-retirees) will need high-tech jobs.  That's an estimated 4,500 high-tech jobs that will need to be available for FSP members.

Will NH have 4,500 high-tech jobs in 5 years?  Here are the high-tech job projections for NH over the next 10 years, divided by 2, to project for only 5 years:

Computer Software Engineers, Applications:  3,861 / 2 = 1,930 jobs
Computer Support Specialists:  1,550 / 2 = 775 jobs
Computer Specialists, All Other:  1,211 / 2 = 605 jobs
Computer Systems Analysts:  944 / 2 = 472 jobs
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software:  773 / 2 = 386 jobs
Network and Computer Systems Administrators:  684 / 2 = 342 jobs
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts:  525 / 2 = 262 jobs
Database Administrators:  178 / 2 = 89 jobs
Desktop Publishers:  142 / 2 = 71 jobs

Total Needed High-Tech Jobs in 5 years:  4,500 jobs
Total High-Tech Jobs in NH in 5 years:  4,932 Jobs
Difference:  432 jobs (not much!)

See page 35 of this report for the data behind these high-tech job projections for NH:
http://www.nhes.state.nh.us/elmi/pdfzip/econstat/projections/proj00-10/proj00-10.pdf

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention one thing.  Many FSPers are not going to move to the target state alone.  They will hopefully bring their spouse if they're married.  ;) And their children, too!  This fact makes my estimates very, very conservative.

In conclusion, we may squeeeeeeze by with barely 10%-too-many high-tech jobs in NH.  That is, if we steal every single available high-tech job in NH for FIVE consecutive years.  That's not too many jobs by any means.

I would like to see if someone can calculate how many dozens of years it will be before WY (for example) can employ 4,500 out-of-state high-tech workers.  Or how many of WY's 18,000 jobs (over 5 years) are only minimum-wage jobs?

I would also like to see if anyone can calculate how many REAL people are going to move to the Free State.  It sure won't be 20,000.  Could it be 30,000?  35,000?  How many are married and single?  How many kids are they bringing?  Should we do a poll?  This statistic alone could be a deal-breaker if you think about it...

I realize you worked hard on this but you tell of how great NH may be in the job market, it may or may not. Rather than analyzing the market in Wyoming you say how many jobs are going to be minimum wage. It is that kind of slander that lose credibility. If you back it up with numbers that is a different story. If you are trying to sell NH then provide the whole truth not just propoganda. Provide cost of living for both sides and what you need to make in NH to equally compare in Wyoming. Just a suggestion.
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ZionCurtain

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2003, 11:42:25 am »

I did a little bit of the analysis for you. Living in Manchester, NH making 40,000 a year is the equivilant of making 30,000 in Casper, Wyoming or 33,000 in Cheyenne, Wyoming. That is a clear 3-5 dollars an hour less to live the same lifestyle. Try Concord, NH the difference is 5-7 dollars an hour. How about Hanover it is 8-10 an hour more to live there. Nashau and Portsmouth is similar to Concord.

I am beginning to think that I may not be able to afford to move there, without a job guarantee first.
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Karl

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2003, 11:59:07 am »

I did a little bit of the analysis for you. Living in Manchester, NH making 40,000 a year is the equivilant of making 30,000 in Casper, Wyoming or 33,000 in Cheyenne, Wyoming. That is a clear 3-5 dollars an hour less to live the same lifestyle. Try Concord, NH the difference is 5-7 dollars an hour. How about Hanover it is 8-10 an hour more to live there. Nashau and Portsmouth is similar to Concord.

I am beginning to think that I may not be able to afford to move there, without a job guarantee first.

Please explain your methods for calculating this instead of just posting magic numbers.
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ZionCurtain

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2003, 12:02:36 pm »

I did a little bit of the analysis for you. Living in Manchester, NH making 40,000 a year is the equivilant of making 30,000 in Casper, Wyoming or 33,000 in Cheyenne, Wyoming. That is a clear 3-5 dollars an hour less to live the same lifestyle. Try Concord, NH the difference is 5-7 dollars an hour. How about Hanover it is 8-10 an hour more to live there. Nashau and Portsmouth is similar to Concord.

I am beginning to think that I may not be able to afford to move there, without a job guarantee first.

Please explain your methods for calculating this instead of just posting magic numbers.
Nothing magic about cost of living index.
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Karl

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2003, 12:20:32 pm »

Nothing magic about cost of living index.

The Cost of Living Index doesn't tell the accurate picture -- it always paints the whole state or city with a single brush -- its an average.  Yes, the average costs are higher in NH, but you are not forced lead the higher cost lifestyle, as many NH residents choose to do.  You can choose a lower cost lifestyle.  In places like WY, where there is less commerce and lower wages, people have fewer options, so it is no surprise that the "Cost of Living" is lower.

It is this kind of thing where spreadsheets and statistics fail us.  You would be better off scanning real estate classifieds and finding affordable property, or evaluating the wages of your chosen profession in NH vs. WY, than on trusting broad-based statistics.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2003, 12:21:44 pm by Karl »
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Sebastian

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2003, 02:48:19 pm »

Quote
I've been trying to tell people that for quite some time but no one seems to care that the number of activists could be artificially inflated by spouses signing up who are not activists!
Good point. Good thing you mentioned it, because I may have not realized it and had my wife sign up (she's libertarian, but not a strong activist... yet :))
Quote
Thus, moving and having a child makes your spouse more likely to need a job than just staying where you are and having a child!
Then I think people with kids should consider not moving until financially (more) secure. I prefer to see at least one parent be an at-home parent when kids are involved. Of course, there are many opportunities to do business at home, especially in a state where cost of living is low, because then one can make quite a profit selling items online.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2003, 02:50:07 pm by Sebastian »
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Sebastian

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2003, 02:53:37 pm »

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It is this kind of thing where spreadsheets and statistics fail us.
Agreed.
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ZionCurtain

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2003, 03:08:49 pm »

Nothing magic about cost of living index.

The Cost of Living Index doesn't tell the accurate picture -- it always paints the whole state or city with a single brush -- its an average.  Yes, the average costs are higher in NH, but you are not forced lead the higher cost lifestyle, as many NH residents choose to do.  You can choose a lower cost lifestyle.  In places like WY, where there is less commerce and lower wages, people have fewer options, so it is no surprise that the "Cost of Living" is lower.

It is this kind of thing where spreadsheets and statistics fail us.  You would be better off scanning real estate classifieds and finding affordable property, or evaluating the wages of your chosen profession in NH vs. WY, than on trusting broad-based statistics.
So are you saying these high tech jobs will be in the remote areas where cost of living is low. I tend to think these jobs will be in the high populated areas where cost of living is high.
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Penfist

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2003, 03:15:57 pm »

Speaking from personal experience, a great many high tech workers can telecommute from almost anywhere in the world, which allows them to live anywhere they would like to live.

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mactruk

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2003, 03:49:55 pm »

  What is high tech?  web page design?  There are no launch pads in WY or ID.
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jgmaynard

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Re:High-Tech Employment Calculations
« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2003, 07:18:59 pm »

Some of our funniest discussions at the Escape to New Hampshire were the PC/Mac/Linux debates.... Of course, PC didn't have many people backing it up. ;)

JM
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