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Author Topic: Montana and Wyoming supporters  (Read 8236 times)

ZionCurtain

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Montana and Wyoming supporters
« on: June 27, 2003, 03:05:06 pm »

I think if we can work together and vote these 2 states as the top 2 we should be able to get one of them voted as the state of choice. I am thinking of it as a compromise, not some conspiracy. I think we need to start pulling together and make it happen. Wyoming is obviously my favorite and would support Montana as my 2nd choice. Us westerners need to stick together to make it happen. As westerners we already believe in the freedom of wide open spaces to do as we wish without government interference, I don't see that happening in the eastern states. We need to pull together and make this thing happen, for our children and our grandchildren. Let's make this thing happen.  :'(
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varrin

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2003, 04:07:19 pm »

It's no secret I don't favor Wyoming.  However, MT could be a compromise state for me (it's currently my 2nd choice).  I'd prefer ID but if ID is bad for WY supporters and WY is bad for ID supporters, maybe MT would  be the compromise.  There's jobs, air service, lots of space, and a still reasonable population.  MT hasn't gotten much attention lately (outside of the GWC) but maybe it should be getting more.

V-

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RacecaR

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2003, 04:52:09 pm »

I agree.  Montana is my first choice and Wyoming and Idaho are tied for second.  Idaho is warmer but we'd stand a better chance of success in Wyoming.
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Jacobus

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2003, 05:34:44 pm »

I've vacillated between New Hampshire and Wyoming for the past year.  I fear that when the state is chosen, east or west, supporters of the other side will accuse the others of dishonest methods and will not move.  Westerners will accuse the New Hampshirites of rounding up as many warm bodies as possible to vote for NH, and easterners will accuse westerners of voting strategically, putting all western states above of NH even if NH is a better choice than some of the states.  Hopefully I am totally off base here.
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pghpat26

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2003, 05:41:17 pm »

jacobus. i cant say loud enough that i hope that doesnt happen cause if it does we will accomplish nothing. this project in my opinion has no chance of going through if the west stays west and east stays east. there just has to be a compromise between the two. has to be. if you would move to nh or mt, ur already uprooting, then you must be willing to go maybe just a little farther on that move to the state  picked. unity is the only way in the world this will be pulled off.
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ZionCurtain

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2003, 08:10:34 pm »

That is why I feel we must find a compromise state. I think Montana could be that. Big state, some decent sized cities. If everyone who intends to vote for Idaho, Montana, or Wyoming will pick Montana as a compromise state as there second choice then I think that even if our first choice does not get the nod then maybe our compromise state (Montana) might. Montana is not a terrible choice in most aspects, has some of the trapsings of what we all want. I think we need to pull together or we may all be moving to NH and be surronded by statists.
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LisaLew

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2003, 08:18:58 pm »

in looking at the hot contenders, NH and WY, the price of housing seperates these two quite a bit.  The housing market looks really expensive in NH.  They are quaint houses, and the lots are often big (not acreage though), the prices are high. On the real estate sites I have been checking out, the sale of homes appear to be hot as well, with lots of sales pending.  WY has a slower real estate market, but the housing appears to be alot more reasonable, especially when you look at the projected jobs.  Montana has reasonable housing, too, but the job prospects are not as good.  

The ability to make more money seems to be better in NH, however will FSP folks be able to get in, get established in a job that will be able to afford them the housing they desire? Alot of people have expressed desires to ranch or at least have some acreage.  It seems to me that WY has enough jobs that will be able to support FSP folks, and the jobs will enable people to purchase the type of home they want.  


WY and MT are at the top of my list, if I join FSP.  MT would be a bit more difficult, with the job situation, but I think it is probably one of the most liberty minded local cultures of the candidate states.
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Eric

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #7 on: June 27, 2003, 08:24:23 pm »

This is silly, folks.  All of the discussion of strategic voting and determining a comprimise state...  The Condorcet method AUTOMATICALLY determines the compromise state, based on the stated voter preference.

I think this bears repeating:  if there is no clear-cut, out-and-out winner Condorcet determines the compromise winner based on which candidate won the most head-to-head matches with other candidates.

If everyone votes their true preference Condorcet determines the compromise state..  It is clear that some people just do not understand the voting system.  Go to http://electionmethods.org/CondorcetEx.htm and read up on this.  You are embarrassing yourselves.


eric
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ZionCurtain

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2003, 09:22:28 pm »

I was more in line with thinking if all the westerners pick a compromise we will have enough votes to win just based on that. Strategic voting does work in Condorcet just is more difficult.
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Eric

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #9 on: June 27, 2003, 09:56:03 pm »

Strategic voting does work in Condorcet just is more difficult.

Really?  Would you care to provide a formal proof?  I (and probably many others here) have an extensive background in mathematics.  Feel free to get as technical as you like.

About 2 months ago I thought I came up with a strategy to beat Condorcet.  Since I programmed the Condorcet poll on the website, I have a good working knowledge of its inner workings  Using my own server and resources, I tried my strategy out.  Wanna know what happened?  

I found out that the only time the strategic voting block could affect the outcome of the election was when it was large enough to win the election outright.  So, if more than 50% of the voters are on your side, you can win by voting strategically.  But if you have 50% of the voters, you've already won.  So what was the point of having a strategic vote in the first place?

Just vote your preferences and we'll find out what the consensus state is.

eric
« Last Edit: June 27, 2003, 09:56:51 pm by Eric »
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freedomroad

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #10 on: June 27, 2003, 11:04:45 pm »

I think if we can work together and vote these 2 states as the top 2 we should be able to get one of them voted as the state of choice. I am thinking of it as a compromise, not some conspiracy. I think we need to start pulling together and make it happen. Wyoming is obviously my favorite and would support Montana as my 2nd choice. Us westerners need to stick together to make it happen. As westerners we already believe in the freedom of wide open spaces to do as we wish without government interference, I don't see that happening in the eastern states. We need to pull together and make this thing happen, for our children and our grandchildren. Let's make this thing happen.  :'(

This does not make sense.  On almost all grounds, Wyoming is either best or in the top 3.  Montana is usually in the middle.  

Lets look at 5  important factors:
Population- Wyoming best
MT- in the middle

Cost of Elections- Wyoming almost best, just $700,000 off the lead
MT- in the middle

Size of state-wide, state house, and state senate districts- Wyoming best
MT- in the middle

Which state has the most limited government elected officials- Wyoming best
MT- in the middle

Which state has the least restrictive laws- Wyoming best
MT- in the middle

Why lump the two states together?

Check out this post where many of the factors that drag down MT are explained,
http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=1946

It makes a lot more sense for people to vote for Wyoming first, because it is the best state for the goals of the project, and then vote for the state that they think is next best for the goals of the project, and so on.
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varrin

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2003, 11:05:38 pm »

I think the voting strategy has more to do with convincing the 'opposing' view how to rank their 2nd (and lower) choices.  To play devil's advocate, if the 'east' faction (fighting words, I know) *and* the west faction ranks Montana highly (though maybe not first) its strong level of support may give it the win, even without a large 1st place following.

I don't think it's gonna make a whole lot of difference if the 'west' people put Montana second or third if the east and west votes go along 'party lines' so to speak.

V-

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BobW

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2003, 02:34:18 am »

Hi all,

I am not a declared FSPer.  I am in support of the program and will assist when I move to Wyoming.  My support would be no different even if I relocated to Carson City.  I am not a Westerner.  I am an Easterner, or so as not to disturb some, I am a Southerner.

What is the mission?

If the FSP mission has a substantial involvment in housing, definitely look at Newport, Rhode Island. If the mission is country living, do consider Virginia's eastern shore.  This area is ideal and also allows for boating on the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean.  For housing with scenery, anything along California Hwy 1 is at the top of the pile.

If the FSP mission is legitimate political activity;

Wyoming has a small population at the capitol city.
Wyoming is near the Federal Regional Center, Denver
Wyoming has only 1 House seat in Congress.
Wyoming has a favorable government.
Wyoming has a favorable populace.

What is the FSP mission?

BobW
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ZionCurtain

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2003, 10:11:46 am »

My only goal is to go to a state that we can be succesful in. I think there are only maybe 5-6 states where that can happen. Unfortunately only one is in the east and it is not NH. My whole way of thinking is to bring all FSPers into a compromise on a secondary plan or compromise. Maybe I am wrong in my thinking. Who would win this scenerio?
2500:NH>MT>WY
2500:WY>MT>NH
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bakedchip

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Re:Montana and Wyoming supporters
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2003, 10:56:21 am »

My only goal is to go to a state that we can be succesful in. I think there are only maybe 5-6 states where that can happen. Unfortunately only one is in the east and it is not NH. My whole way of thinking is to bring all FSPers into a compromise on a secondary plan or compromise. Maybe I am wrong in my thinking. Who would win this scenerio?
2500:NH>MT>WY
2500:WY>MT>NH

In the above scenario,

NH = WY 2500-2500
MT = WY 2500-2500
NH = MT 2500-2500

and there is no winner - it's a perfect cycle.

Eric's right - the Condorcet method will produce the closest thing to a compromise candidate if one exists.  Strategic voting is near-impossible using the method.  (I think it is actually possible, but I won't try to prove it because I can't.)

Personally, I'm going to vote for WY & NH at the top, although I haven't decided which one will get the #1 spot yet.   :)  I'm not thrilled about Montana as a choice, for the reasons FreedomRoad gave.

If the "westerners" want to push Montana to the top, they have to convince the "easterners" to push it high.  In my opinion, if you're trying to convince the "easterners" to vote for a western state, Idaho would be a better bet, since it's more urbanized in some locations (and has what some would consider better climate).  Whether or not that's a good idea is another debate.

-shrug-  Vote for whatever you think is best.

- Chip
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