Free State Project Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: [1] 2   Go Down

Author Topic: Place Your Bets!  (Read 8449 times)

StevenN

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 191
  • Friend of the FSP
Place Your Bets!
« on: February 26, 2003, 12:35:21 am »

I'm not an odds-maker at all. But, after reading through this website for a while, here's how I would make the odds of which state will be "it". I'd like to know how everyone else would make the odds, too.

2 to 1: New Hampshire, Idaho, and Wyoming. (Really, in my opinion, the only states with a chance. I lean towards ID right now).

8 to 1: Alaska. (Hmmm...could happen).

10 to 1: Vermont. (If it's decided that playing the D's and R's off on another).

20 to 1: Maine. (But I don't see why it would win over NH).

50 to 1: South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana. (Just like ME, why one of these states instead of WY or ID)?

100 to 1: Delaware. (Not a chance).

500 to 1: An Island in Hawaii.  ;D




And Thou, Melkor, shalt see that nor theme may be played that hath not its utmost source in Me."
« Last Edit: February 26, 2003, 12:35:55 am by StevenN »
Logged
"A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man" -- Jebediah Springfield

Zxcv

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1229
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2003, 01:10:07 am »

I think you're pretty close, but I'll say that SD does pretty well on the spreadsheet. Hell, I'd rather live there than Alaska!   ;)
Logged

Eddie_Bradford

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 567
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2003, 12:36:59 pm »

You forgot about Idaho everywhere I go I find people who are obsessed with Idaho.  My theory is they really like potatos.
-Eddie
Logged

freedomroad

  • Guest
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2003, 01:13:10 pm »

I'm not an odds-maker at all. But, after reading through this website for a while, here's how I would make the odds of which state will be "it". I'd like to know how everyone else would make the odds, too.

2 to 1: New Hampshire, Idaho, and Wyoming. (Really, in my opinion, the only states with a chance. I lean towards ID right now).

I'd have to say WY 2 to 1
NH 3 to 1
ID 8 to 1
MT, VT, SD 20 to 1

Everything else, um, um...  I think ME and ND will be last

And Thou, Melkor, shalt see that nor theme may be played that hath not its utmost source in Me."
Quote
Logged

Reaper

  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1854
  • Atheism cures religious terrorism!
    • The Reaper's Den
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2003, 01:16:28 pm »

Yup, if I were betting it'd be on Wyoming.
Logged
Reaper
Proud member of the FSP's lunatic fringe!

"If we turn from battle because there is little hope of victory, where then would valor be?  Let it ever be the goal that stirs us, not the odds."

StevenN

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 191
  • Friend of the FSP
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2003, 03:49:30 pm »

Now that I look at the data a bit more closely, I would switch South Dakota and Alaska. I'd keep WY at 2 to 1 and NH 2.5 or 3 to 1. Do you really think the probability of Idaho would be that low? I guess let me get off topic a bit and ask, why WY instead of ID? In a nutshell, I thought ID had better job opportunities and more overall appeal, while WY had the lower population and some better stats. But then I also thought that Idahoians (?) would be more receptive to a freedom-minded message. I don't know...




And Thou, Melkor, shalt see that no theme may be played which hath not its utmost source in me.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2003, 03:51:26 pm by StevenN »
Logged
"A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man" -- Jebediah Springfield

anarchicluv

  • FSP Participant
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 397
  • Semper Liber
    • Strike The Root
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2003, 05:17:11 pm »

Wyoming also gets my vote.  I strongly feel we aren't giving enough credit to the FedGov's jurisdiction over international/coastal borders.  That one weighs heavy for me in my decision.  But that's not the only reason I have decided on WY.  There are plenty of others.  Check out the following thread:  http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=1247

I have thoroughly studied this thread-and all of the linked threads-and have found it immensely valuable in making my decision.  I initially favored DE, with WY dead last on my list!  Please, take the time to study the info within this thread.

I think an inter/coastal border would be detrimental to the Free State in our early days.  Maybe once we free one state, we will have the ability to work within another state that has an inter/coastal border.

Jeremy
Logged
If a thousand men were not to pay their tax-bills this year, that would not be a violent and bloody measure, as it would be to pay them, and enable the State to commit violence and shed innocent blood.
~Henry David Thoreau

exitus

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 180
  • To face freedom, turn 180º from tyranny.
    • Mercados libres y paz: El Cato Institute
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2003, 06:12:58 pm »

I just got off the phone with my wife, and the decision is final, we're leaving this land of moochers and looters called California!

We've notified our landlord that we will not be renewing our lease,  We've cancelled our subscription to the local newspaper.  We are notifiying friends and family.  I told my employer that I was leaving, (though I work free-lance and I can still work for him occasionally outside CA).  My wife is quietly cleaning- out her office and getting some documents in order (if you know either of us, this is still confidential info there, ok?).  We're going month-to month on our auto insurance, we're getting some boxes, selling and giving away things we do not need, cleaning the apartment.  I'm doing job searches online.  Change can be good, this change feels great, though I'm going to miss the weather, as . . .

Goodbye, California, We're moving to Idaho*!  (probably Boise)
Job or no job, we're leaving California by June 1st
  • The cost of living will go down at least 20%, (though lower wages might negate some of that).
  • I expect to find a much higher concentration of people who will support the ideals of liberty.
  • Taxes will be noticeably lower.
  •  I will experience a total of about 34 times as much influence over state politics as I did in California, and about 4 times the influence over local politics as here, and most likely many times even that, since the populace is notably more freedom- oriented than in California!
  • I might feel a little less powerless to change things and my blood pressure might go down a few points whenever I read the local news.

Here's how this news relates to this thread:

--We now have a 1 in 10 chance of actually moving to the chosen free state (probably better, given the excitement over Idaho).
--We have a 3 in 10 chance of positively influencing people who live in either the future chosen state or a state that borders the future free state (probably even a little better chance than that, given the popularity of these Western states).
--We have a 9 in 10 chance that we will have moved, if not to the free state, at least closer to the free state and have that much less to travel and be ready for moving inside  the 5-year time-frame (probably even a little better than that, given the lack of support for Alaska).
--We will have a 99.9% chance that we will experience a far greater level of freedom in Idaho over Califonia.

-- Even better, that's one more family voting with their feet, and going on strike against the crazed socialism and war on freedom that has become California!  There is a 100% chance that I will not regret this moral decision.

*Wyoming was my first choice, but Idaho was the compromise decision for my wife, I'm thinking baby steps, baby steps. . . (if we have to go there, or, heaven forbid-- North Dakota), at least Idaho will be the warm-up.  She has already agreed to move again if she has to, she may even sign-up for the FSP and make it all official!
Logged
". . .the foundations of our national policy should be laid in private morality. If individuals be not influenced by moral principles, it is in vain to look for public virtue” -- U.S. Senate's reply to George Washington's first inaugural address

ShrineGuard

  • Guest
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2003, 07:31:31 pm »

It's been pretty hard for me to gauge which state will end up winning, but I have a feeling that N.H. will pull it off because the Wyoming vote will be split by Idaho, whereas N.H. has a strong lead in the east.

Personally, I'd much rather N.H because I do very much enjoy the Northeast, but I also find that Wyoming is the much better Free State choice, and would vote for it.  Too bad it used to be the single U.S. state I always forgot when listing them all off  ;D
Logged

Zxcv

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1229
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2003, 10:15:09 pm »

I don't think there is any such problem as "splitting the vote" when using the simple Condorcet method.

Exitus, congrats! I'm sure you won't regret it. Have your wife start reading western novels, e.g. Edward Abbey and so forth, it's a great place to get to know.

Make sure you write a letter to the editor or two telling them you are fed up with the workers' paradise, and bailing out!  :)

Actually, I've lived in California, for short periods, and I could never understand why people would actually choose to live there...
Logged

varrin

  • Former FSP President
  • FSP Participant
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 999
  • THE air male
    • Varrin's FSP Info Page
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2003, 02:12:17 pm »

I'm lousy at predicting, but since we're placing bets, here goes:

1.8 to 1 - New Hampshire: takes the east handily edging out the two leading western contenders due to solidarity

2 to 1 - Wyoming: wants to take the whole project handily but splits the west with Idaho and loses narrowly to NH

2.2 to 1 - Idaho: see above, but weighted slightly lower due to the importance of population

5 to 1 - Alaska: has its strong points and lots of members

9 to 1 - Vermont: low population alternative to New Hampshire but seemingly not nearly as popular.

20 to 1 - South Dakota and Deleware: compromise states

40 to 1 - Montana and Maine: Hmmmmm... Could be free, but maybe not

50 to 1 - Gets a bum rap for jobs and weather - comes in last

Now don't get me wrong, this isn't *exactly* how I *want* it to turn out.  Just a little armchair quarterbacking.  Here's how I *want* it to turn out:

1 to 1 - Idaho

4,999 to 1 - the other 9

;)

V-

Logged
Departed Fresno, PRC (Peoples Republic of California): October 18, 2004
Arrived Keene, FS (Free State!): October 25, 2004!
To contact me, please use email, not PM here.

StevenN

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 191
  • Friend of the FSP
I See The Light!
« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2003, 04:12:36 pm »

OK, I have spent much of my time in the last few days looking at the state question. I have been converted. I think Wyoming is the best choice. It may not be as "attractive" as NH or ID, but WY is where I think the best chance for success lies.
Logged
"A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man" -- Jebediah Springfield

George Reich

  • FSP Participant
  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 546
  • I just *love* it when Hank and Dagny brainstorm!
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2003, 08:08:44 pm »

If Wyoming wins the FSP vote the result will be tragic. All of Wyoming's votes are counted on machines which can easily be controlled by the big parties. Wyoming's election laws are terrible, too. A clean election is impossible in Wyoming.

 http://soswy.state.wy.us/election/systems.htm

 :-[
Logged
If everyone were rich there would be no need for government assistance. If everyone were rich all children could attend private schools. If everyone were rich, government would become superfluous. Read the free e-book at this site:

http://www.scienceofgettingrich.net

Zxcv

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1229
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2003, 10:20:44 pm »

Wyoming methods are not out of line with those used in other states, as far as I know. Pretty much every state uses machines. Is there something specific about the process used in Wyoming that is different and substandard? In what way are the election laws there "terrible"?
Logged

Robert H.

  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1361
  • Jeffersonian
    • Devolution USA
Re:Place Your Bets!
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2003, 11:44:09 pm »

If Wyoming wins the FSP vote the result will be tragic. All of Wyoming's votes are counted on machines which can easily be controlled by the big parties. Wyoming's election laws are terrible, too. A clean election is impossible in Wyoming.

Wyoming and election scandal are hardly synonymous terms.  I see nothing there that would interfere with our potential success.

In fact, Wyoming has a significant advantage in that it is one of the few candidate states with a term limits law, a feature that will open up the field to greater competition for office by preventing politicians from becoming too entrenched in the system.

The Libertarian Party has also just achieved major party status in Wyoming, demonstrating that it is more than possible to compete with the major parties there.  In fact, the LP vote is a large part of the reason why the GOP candidate lost the governor's election to the Democrat, and this should prime the pump nicely for us in a number of ways.  And the fact that the LP is the rising third party choice in an already very liberty-friendly state is quite telling by itself, and can only be interpreted as a positive thing for our purposes.
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up
 

anything