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Author Topic: Taking over Delaware  (Read 4859 times)

TedApelt

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Taking over Delaware
« on: January 20, 2003, 10:39:02 am »

I am going to use this thread to present my plan for how we can gain control of Delaware.  Each posting I make will be a piece of the puzzle.  When I am finished, maybe months later, I should have a good idea of how we can do it and what it will take.

The following is a list of nine Delaware house districts that were won with less than 1,000 votes.  Two of them were won with less than 100 votes.If DE gets chosen as a state, these are the ones we would want to work on first (certainly before the main migration is finished), and we could probably take some with only a few hundred activists.

Districts 37 and 38 are extremely exciting.  In both cases a Republican challanger beat the Democratic incumbent with less than 100 votes.

 I calculated the minimum votes by looking over all the races in the 2002 elections and recording the lowest vote received by each party in each precinct.  This gives me a good estimate of how many people will vote for their party even if Bozo the clown were the candidate.  While I am using exact numbers, keep in mind that they are only estimates, but about the best we would have to work on.

 I calculated the swing votes by subtracting the minimum Democratic votes and the minimum Republican votes from the total votes cast.  This number when added to the minimums gives the maximums.


Winnable by either party:

State Representative district 7

votes needed to win:  4109
Democratic votes:  3864
Republican votes:  4278
minimum Democratic votes:  1496
minimum Republican votes:  3406
swing vote:  3314
maximum Democratic votes:  4810
maximum Republican votes:  6720

:  
State Representative district 14

votes needed to win:  4267
Democratic votes:  4530
Republican votes:  3932
minimum Democratic votes:  1781
minimum Republican votes:  3884
swing vote:  2867
maximum Democratic votes:  4648
maximum Republican votes:  6751


State Representative district 15

votes needed to win:  2541
Democratic votes:  2299
Republican votes:  2781
minimum Democratic votes:  1816
minimum Republican votes:  1904
swing vote:  1360
maximum Democratic votes:  3176
maximum Republican votes:  3264


State Representative district 23

votes needed to win:  3045
Democratic votes:  2861
Republican votes:  3228
minimum Democratic votes:  1217
minimum Republican votes:  2262
swing vote:  2610
maximum Democratic votes:  3827
maximum Republican votes:  4872


State Representative district 25

votes needed to win:  2142
Democratic votes:  1702
Republican votes:  2581
minimum Democratic votes:  1259
minimum Republican votes:  1646
swing vote:  1378
maximum Democratic votes:  2637
maximum Republican votes  3024


State Representative district 28

votes needed to win:  2237
Democratic votes:  2678
Republican votes:  1754
minimum Democratic votes:  1357
minimum Republican votes:  1570
swing vote:  1546
maximum Democratic votes:  2903
maximum Republican votes:  3116


State Representative district 37

votes needed to win:  3248
Democratic votes:  3225
Republican votes:  3269
minimum Democratic votes:  1186
minimum Republican votes:  2216
swing vote:  3092
maximum Democratic votes:  4278
maximum Republican votes:  5308


State Representative district 38

votes needed to win:  4457
Democratic votes:  4379
Republican votes:  4436*
minimum Democratic votes:  2292
minimum Republican votes:  3416
swing vote:  3204
maximum Democratic votes:  5496
maximum Republican votes:  6620


Safe Republican seat

State Representative district 32

votes needed to win:  1959
Democratic votes:  1697
Republican votes:  2192
minimum Democratic votes:  1007
minimum Republican votes:  1989
swing vote:  921
maximum Democratic votes:  1928
maximum Republican votes:  2910


"votes needed to win" is 50% of the votes in the election plus one.
* - won a three way race with less than half of the vote
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RidleyReport

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2003, 10:56:27 am »

Ted:

Ack!   I hate that term, "taking over."   How would you feel if someone came to where you live to "take over?"

We will never have the power to take anything over, only to persuade and support.   And we won't persuade anybody with talk of taking over.


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TedApelt

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2003, 01:35:09 pm »

Ted:

Ack!   I hate that term, "taking over."   How would you feel if someone came to where you live to "take over?"

We will never have the power to take anything over, only to persuade and support.   And we won't persuade anybody with talk of taking over.


What this thread is about is replacing current elected officials with ones who will reduce government.  This will involve a very long and brutal fight.  No matter how we do it, we will have a substantial nmber of people who will hate our guts because of what we have done.  Either that, or we will fail.

From my LI campaign school notes:

What is politics?

Politics ain't about making a better life for you or the common good of man or serving God.  Those might be your motivation,

Politics is nothing else but the adjuration of power. - WHO RULES WHOM.

It exists at all times in all places.  In some places at a barrel of a gun, and in many cases this gun get fired repeatedly.

The Founding Fathers weren't stupid or ignorant.  There system worked about as well as any system could.  What is amazing is that we have any freedom left at all - Where would you rather live?

Our system works, just not the way you think it should.  Two paths to power

1.  You have the power that you seize by force, this is the easiest and most common.

2.  (the good one, but really tough)  Indirect - By controlling the environment on which the those who are in #1 exist - You CONTROL them - We aren't talking "access" here, we are talking about MAKING them do the right thing regardless of what they think of it.

DO YOU WANT ACCESS OR DO YOU WANT POWER?

Our problem is that we are not doing the things TO them to MAKE (FORCE, not persuade) them do the things we want.

Education theory - different forms

Two forms of this:

1.  Educate politicians - the silliest form.  This won't work.  

2.  Educate "the people".  Many problems with this  How do you educate them?  TV?  Very expensive.  Direct mail?  A 3% response rate is fantastic and almost unachievable.  Get real!

Main problem is that the education theory isn't true.  It doesn't work.

Reality

You need 50%+1 right?  WRONG!  Children, felons, illegals, ect. don't count.  Neither do those who don't register, mainly because they don't care, and wouldn't vote if they were registered.

At most 2/3 at most who are eligible to register do so, usually it is 40%.  Now we're down to 20% of the population, but even then most of them don't vote.  Turnout can be 10% or even less.  Even in the last Presidential race, one of the highest in recent history, it was under 60%.

What you really need to win is 12%+1, usually much less, however

There is some cheating and stealing, but that is not the real problem.

Most people vote by party - doesn't matter who the candidate is.  Who cares what they think?  Don't consider them.

6% are "in play".  This is where your money should go, money spent on others is wasted.  Don't waste your time or money in campaigns!

What you really need to win - 3% or less  They consider themselves to be an oppressed minority and they care how they vote.  They are single issue voters, and if you are wrong on their issue they will vote against you.

Best volunteers   Right To Life people and home schoolers - those two groups are usually the same people.

Those who politicians fear they respect.  You must be able to hurt them.

Legislating is another form of campaigning.

Bork was defeated because he was portrayed as racist, but what really happened was he thought that Brown vs. Board of Education is bad law, and got misinterpreted.

Politicians try to make the "box" of political reality as small as possible.  They keep pushing it in.  Liberals push it through organized pressure.

Out of the box are swirls of education.

Organized pressure - FROM THE OUTSIDE - is the only way to move the box of political reality.  Education just swirls around and around, but is not going to make a difference.  Forget about it.

Politicians (most of them, anyway - a few exceptions) are Pavilioan dogs who do not have souls.  Their behavior is mechanically determined.  They respond to two types of stimuli  pleasure (money is the highest of this) and pain.

There is more to politics than campaigns.

Don't use words that are fuzzy. ("Define or be defined" as Michael Cloud would say.)  You must be concrete, because what you will be doing is concrete actions to get concrete results, results that can be defined and measured.

Money is not the most important thing, but it is very important.  Most pols are buying votes with tax money with welfare and pork, and this is where most votes come from.

Pain (losing is death) - worst is angry voters, bad press is also right up there.

Pain is more powerful than pleasure.

How pols react

The number one motivator for pols is to avoid pain

Inertia is the greatest force in politics.  Doing nothing gets few people angry.

First thing they usually do - threaten troublemakers (example the LP), usually by saying that their action will make things worse, we just don't do things this way, you just don't understand the situation, this is the best we can do at this time, ect.  This makes the troublemaker go away, and it doesn't give him anything.

Any time you hear this, ask yourself how this pol would benefit from you believing this.  Keep going down that path, and you will get to the truth.

If the troublemaker doesn't go away, then they try to buy him off, and as cheaply as possibly.  "Head my advisory committee." is a good one.

If you give in at any step of the process, instead of being the grassroots, you become the pol's rep to the grassroots, telling them what they must settle for.

One person who refuses to give up is better than 30 who do.  DON'T SELL OUT!!!



          Demographic Research & Vote Goals

If you know how to do something, you will always have a job.  If you know why it is being done, you will always be the boss

50% of what you do will be wasted.  The key is not to waste the 50% that will make you lose.

Answer the question "WHY???"  Question everything.  Don't do things just because that's what campaigns do.

1.  Like race info - first similar races, then the exact seat.  Which race represents mine the best?  Don't study Congressional races if you are running for mayor.  Also, it doesn't matter who won and who lost, and how you feel about this.  The important thing is how closely it matches your race.

2.  Total vote goals.  How many votes do you need to win?  First, estimate turnout, based on the % who voted last time multiplied by the number registered this time.

3.  District vote goals.  You need at least 52% of the vote to allow for a margin of error.  Specific numbers are best - get an exact number to shoot for, like 63,897 or whatever.  Don't say "Oh, between 60,000 and 70,000, somewhere around that."  Nail this down.  Make sure that everyone in your campaign knows this number.

4.  Break it down precinct by precinct.  How many votes does each one have?  How do they vote?  How many in each case voted for somebody like yourself?  Put this on a spreadsheet.

The difference between what your "like candidate" got and 52% is what you need to gain to win.  Now you know how many votes you need to capture from each precinct to win the race.  

Your job is to beat the margin in every precinct, not to win every precinct.

Which precincts do you walk?  The ones with the most undecided voters.  Press hard there.

Get your volunteers to get reasonably attainable numbers from their own precinct, compared to what happened before.  For example, let's say that 2 people voted for your party in a your volunteer's precinct in the last election, and one of those was your volunteer.  Say  "Can you get 5 for me this time?  (Beats the margin!)  Maybe 6?  Please help me and do this.  Thanks!"



This is what we will be doing once we get to the Free State.  How would you better name the process?
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RidleyReport

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2003, 08:27:27 pm »

<<How would you better name the process?>>

Instead of talking about "taking over" a state, I'd talk about "winning" it.  

As Mark Twain said, the difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between the lightning and the lightning bug.

Everyone loves a winner; no one loves a takeover.
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TedApelt

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2003, 10:58:31 pm »

Narrow margin State Senator districts:


State Senator district 6

votes needed to win:  5106
Democratic votes:  4600
Republican votes:  5611
minimum Democratic votes:  1735
minimum Republican votes:  2794
swing vote:  5682
maximum Democratic votes:  7417
maximum Republican votes:  8476


State Senator district 8

votes needed to win:  6273
Democratic votes:  6411
Republican votes:  6134
minimum Democratic votes:  2504
minimum Republican votes:  4323
swing vote:  5718
maximum Democratic votes:  8222
maximum Republican votes:  10041


State Senator district 9

votes needed to win:  4951
Democratic votes:  5783
Republican votes:  4118
minimum Democratic votes:  2769
minimum Republican votes:  3167
swing vote:  3965
maximum Democratic votes:  6734
maximum Republican votes:  7132
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freedomroad

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2003, 01:15:13 am »

Ted:

We will never have the power to take anything over, only to persuade and support.   And we won't persuade anybody with talk of taking over.


I want no part in the takeover of any state.  I want to move to a very liberty friendly state and support the local liberty politics.  I want to hand out flyers, go to rallies, stand on corners, meet people at the polls...  I want to support the local liberty leaders with my money, the same way I joined the NRA and GOA.  I want to persuade those on the fence to come to the side of liberty.  I want to defend what the state stands for.  I want to protect the Constitution of the U.S. and help stop people from walking on it.  I want to give my opinion on helping to solve whatever problems the state might have and back up my advice with working plans and my hard earned dollars.  If a movement comes to the state to take it over I will fight this movement tooth and nail.  However, if a movement comes that want to support the state and keep it free, if a movement comes the cares about the people and tries to help them, I will join that movement.
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TedApelt

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2003, 10:08:13 am »

I want no part in the takeover of any state.

The way I see it, our enemies will be accusing us of trying to take over the state no matter what we do, and no matter what we say about ourselves.  Best to use some intellectual judo and tell people that we are giving their lives back to them.

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RidleyReport

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2003, 07:33:19 pm »

Ted wrote:

<<Best to use some intellectual judo and tell people that we are giving their lives back to them.>>

I normally try to spend more time taking action here than debating, since the second detracts energy from the first.   But this is important, and FS residents are watching what we say.  I don't think any of them would likely appreciate being told that they need *us* to give their lives back to them.

Again, I have to ask you how you would feel if you were an FS resident and someone did this to you:

"Hi, Ted, I'm Joe Outsider from Boston!  Sure is nice here in Wyoming where you've lived all your life.  I just moved in next door to you and am  going to be a politician!  I'm also going to educate you and give you your life!"

I can't see any way this would work; human psychology does not allow it to.

Alternate plan:

Focus on supporting the state's economy (buy Wyoming!) and existing culture of freedom the moment that state is chosen.  Defer to the locals as much as possible consistent with our objectives.   *Don't* run anyone for office until way down the line, if ever. Exercise influence via ACU or ADA type endorsements.  Vote.  

You assume people will automatically hate us for being outsiders, but they won't if we pick an already half-free state and loyally, humbly support its freedom and prosperity.  

« Last Edit: January 21, 2003, 07:36:05 pm by Dada Orwell »
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Zxcv

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2003, 01:25:54 pm »

You are right on target, Dada! Maybe we ought to place your response on www.freestateproject.org so people know what we want!   :D

This point about "giving people their life" reminds me of the old days, when leftist groups spent so much time talking about "consciousness raising" - as if the people whose consciousness they were proposing to raise, spent their life walking around unconscious.   ::)
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Hank

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Re:Taking over Delaware
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2003, 11:33:43 am »

It looks like Ted ran out of steam.
Is there no other Delaware fans who can pick up the ball and run with it?
There just might be room for ranchettes in Southern Delaware.

Has what Ted tried been done for any other states?
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