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[JasonPSorens]

A lot of people (you know who you are ) have put a lot of stress on the idea that we can work out of state, thus making some of the states that might otherwise not be viable more attractive.  How does this claim stand up to current reality?  The Census has figures on the number of residents who work outside their state of residence.  If very few people are doing that now in a particular state, it is presumptuous to suppose that we will be able to do any different.  Here are the figures on the ten candidate states.

State, Number of residents working, Number of residents working outside state, % of working residents who work outside state
Alaska,290597,1705,0.59%
Delaware,373070,42894,11.50%
Idaho,594654,29314,4.93%
Maine,615144,24200,3.93%
Montana,422159,5621,1.33%
New Hampshire,638565,100108,15.68%
North Dakota,319481,12534,3.92%
South Dakota,372648,8750,2.35%
Vermont,311839,21346,6.85%
Wyoming,239809,7127,2.97%

Consistent with popular perception, the states of New Hampshire, Delaware, and to a lesser extent Vermont have a high number of residents working outside the state.  By contrast, only 7000 Wyoming citizens work outside the state; only Montana & Alaska are lower.  It has been claimed that commuting out of state from North Dakota is much less feasible than commuting out from Wyoming: the reverse is true.  Nearly twice as many North Dakotans as Wyomingans work out-of-state.  In all states except perhaps NH and DE working outside the state seems a very dim prospect, not a possibility that we should count on.

[freedomroad]

A lot of people (you know who you are ) have put a lot of stress on the idea that we can work out of state, thus making some of the states that might otherwise not be viable more attractive.  How does this claim stand up to current reality?  The Census has figures on the number of residents who work outside their state of residence.  If very few people are doing that now in a particular state, it is presumptuous to suppose that we will be able to do any different.  Here are the figures on the ten candidate states.

State, Number of residents working, Number of residents working outside state, % of working residents who work outside state
Alaska,290597,1705,0.59%
Delaware,373070,42894,11.50%
Idaho,594654,29314,4.93%
Maine,615144,24200,3.93%
Montana,422159,5621,1.33%
New Hampshire,638565,100108,15.68%
North Dakota,319481,12534,3.92%
South Dakota,372648,8750,2.35%
Vermont,311839,21346,6.85%
Wyoming,239809,7127,2.97%


Consistent with popular perception, the states of New Hampshire, Delaware, and to a lesser extent Vermont have a high number of residents working outside the state.  By contrast, only 7000 Wyoming citizens work outside the state; only Wyoming & Alaska are lower.

I think you mean, only MT and AK are lower and SD has a %.

 It has been claimed that commuting out of state from North Dakota is much less feasible than commuting out from Wyoming: the reverse is true.

Not exactly.  ND has two MSAs that branch from ND to MN.  The Fargo (ND) and Moorhead (MN) MSA and the Grand Forks (ND) and East Grand Forks (MN) MSA both do this.  Many people from ND travel to these two cities because they are part of larger ND MSAs.  

Nearly twice as many North Dakotans as Wyomingans work out-of-state.  In all states except perhaps NH and DE working outside the state seems a very dim prospect, not a possibility that we should count on.

I disagree, entirely.  First of all, some states like WY have very low unemployment rates.  This means that the people of WY are able to find jobs in WY.  They do not need to travel to other states to find work.  Also, WY has no income tax and the out of state cities are around 40 min to an hour drive.  Many rural people do not want to drive 45min. for work.  However, to many city people this is not a problem.  I remember, when my Uncle was a vice-prez for a large drug company in NJ, he lived in PA.  He would drive 1 hour and 40 min, everyday, just to go one way.  Why did he do this?  He wanted to live in a nice rural community in PA but make the money of a large city.  Certainly, many city people will not mind driving the 40 min. to 1 hr. it takes to get to 2 MSAs in CO that combine for over 500,000 people.  

Many people leave NH for work for the same reason my uncle left PA for work.  They actually had a job in Boston before they moved to NH (just as my uncle worked in NJ, first) and they keep that job and moved out of MA.  DE is in the same boat but to a smaller degree.  

People are less likely to work outside of a state if they are an hour away from an out-of-state city, if the state has no income tax, and if the state has very low unemployment.   WY fits all of these bills. However, those members of the FSP that are from large cities will not care about these things.  They will be willing to work out of state even if the drive is 40 min. to 1 hr.

[JasonPSorens]

Well, I don't know anyone from any kind of city who'd be willing to do a one-hour commute each way, unless the job paid over $100,000 or something.  Many of us will have to settle for jobs that pay a lot less than that, and thus may not be able to afford really long commutes.  But the point in bringing up these figures is to show that maybe the natives of these states know something we don't.  If Wyoming residents don't commute to Salt Lake City or Fort Collins, there must be a reason for that.  I've heard conflicting reports from people familiar with Wyoming about winter travel, but that may be the culprit.  Certainly out-of-state work does not look like a major option for any of the states under consideration.

[freedomroad]

Well, I don't know anyone from any kind of city who'd be willing to do a one-hour commute each way, unless the job paid over $100,000 or something.

My brother and I both travel 30 min. each way for our job and I only make $12.15 per hour while he only makes $9.00 per hour.  These are both part time jobs.  I am also in the Army Reserve and at my old home it took me 45min. (each way) to drive to the military base.  Many of my fellow reservist drive 1-2 hours (each way) to go to the monthly drills.  Before my dad retired he drove 50min (each way) to downtown Memphis (even though his house was 8min from Memphis it still took 50min to get to his place of employment) to work for the IRS and he only made $45,000 per year.  My guess is that the travel in Philly and Boston is worse than Memphis.  I have never left their airports.  However, if Boston is willing to throw millions down the drain on the 'big dig' so that Boston has more roads it must have a serious traffic problem.  Philadelphia is one of the largest cities in the country and I know that other large cities like NYC, LA, Atlanta, and Miami have serious traffic problems.

"P048. TRAVEL TIME TO WORK FOR WORKERS 16 YEARS AND OVER - Universe: WORKERS 16 YEARS AND OVER

United States
Estimate  Lower Bound  Upper Bound  
Total:
127,731,766  127,503,008  127,960,524  
Did not work at home:
 123,632,760  123,410,680  123,854,840  
Less than 5 minutes
 4,791,691  4,702,365  4,881,017  
5 to 9 minutes
 14,163,858  14,011,124  14,316,592  
10 to 14 minutes
 18,190,699  18,029,086  18,352,312  
15 to 19 minutes
 19,488,494  19,321,133  19,655,855  
20 to 24 minutes
 17,970,605  17,821,384  18,119,826  
25 to 29 minutes
 7,334,855  7,243,993  7,425,717  
30 to 34 minutes
 16,095,552  15,948,410  16,242,694  
35 to 39 minutes
 3,292,633  3,229,032  3,356,234  
40 to 44 minutes
 4,207,255  4,143,425  4,271,085  
45 to 59 minutes
 9,055,177  8,938,783  9,171,571  
60 to 89 minutes
 6,483,022  6,386,748  6,579,296  
90 or more minutes
 2,558,919  2,492,005  2,625,833  
Worked at home
 4,099,006  4,034,291  4,163,721  
Notes

The Census 2000 Supplementary Survey universe is limited to the household population and excludes the population living in institutions, college dormitories, and other group quarters.  Data are based on a sample and are subject to sampling variability. The degree of uncertainty for an estimate is represented through the use of a confidence interval. The confidence interval computed here is a 90 percent confidence interval and can be interpreted roughly as providing 90 percent certainty that the true number falls between the lower and upper bounds.

Source: Census 2000"

Total of 123,632,760 United States workers that travel to a job
18,097,118 travel 45min to 1 1/2 hr or more for a job
= 14.5% of traveling workers travel 45min to 1 1/2 hr for work
 
First I used personal examples.  Then I showed that close to 15% of those over 16 travel a long way for work.  People are willing to travel to work.

 Many of us will have to settle for jobs that pay a lot less than that, and thus may not be able to afford really long commutes.

If you will not make a lot of money out of state then work instate.  I thought the whole reason people would leave the state for work is to go to the cities for the high-tech, well-paying jobs.  All of the states will have plenty of low paying jobs.  We already talked about this.  It is economics. More people equals more jobs.  

Certainly, we will also bring some jobs.  Getting rid of some of the unneeded regulations will save everyone money and either create more jobs or bring up pay.  Also, competing school systems and more legalized gambling will bring in more jobs.  Writers, radio show hosts, and pilots will also be able to move in and work in other places.  Also, if companies know that 20,000 people will move into a small state over 8 years, they might be more likely to move to that state.

 But the point in bringing up these figures is to show that maybe the natives of these states know something we don't.  If Wyoming residents don't commute to Salt Lake City or Fort Collins, there must be a reason for that.  

I mentioned 3 possible reasons in my previous post.

I've heard conflicting reports from people familiar with Wyoming about winter travel, but that may be the culprit.

I have also heard conflicting reports.  I would like to know about Rapid City, Ogden, and Salt Lake City.  I want to know about weather and actual travel time by people that live there.  


I do know about Ft. Collins and Billings, though.  Weather is not a major problem and people should have very little problems with driving out of state.

Certainly out-of-state work does not look like a major option for any of the states under consideration.

I think it is for those that want high-tech jobs.  I really do not know who has these high-tech jobs.  But if so many people say that tons of libertarians have high-tech jobs I agree.  I just have almost no first-hand experience with this.  I do not even know many people with high-tech jobs.  Several of the local libertarians I know are in real estate.

[Zxcv]

One situation that generates long commutes is places like the Bay Area. That is where the jobs are, yet the housing costs are out of this world. So people live in places like Modesto and commute to the Bay Area! Pretty insane if you ask me, but if you have a job in the Bay Area, that is what you have to think about.

I doubt there are many places (besides yuppieville, i.e. Jackson Hole) in Wyoming that a cheap enough home nearby work can't be found.

I wonder if the census bureau has any information on commute times? I bet states like Wyoming have commute times much lower than average. I searched in the census bureau but could not find anything. Maybe someone will have better luck looking for this stuff.

[freedomroad]

I wonder if the census bureau has any information on commute times? I bet states like Wyoming have commute times much lower than average. I searched in the census bureau but could not find anything. Maybe someone will have better luck looking for this stuff.

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ThematicMapFramesetServlet?ds_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U&geo_id=D&tree_id=403&tm_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U_M00175&_lang=en

WY has some of the lowest average cummute times in the country.  The other Western FSP states have very low cummute times.  NH and DE have the highest average cummute times out of the 10 FSP states.  None of the 10 states are too high.

[cathleeninsc]

Well, I don't know anyone from any kind of city who'd be willing to do a one-hour commute each way, unless the job paid over $100,000 or something.  

Jason, Jason, your youth and inexperience are showing. As Zxcv pointed out, it boils down to housing costs.

Cathleen in SC

[ZionCurtain]

I live in Slat Lake City and as far as commuting from Evanston, Wyoming. i think the only feasible way to do it in the winter would be if you had a job that you don't have to come into the office everyday. Maybe telecommuting. I imagine that someone could do it, but I would not, personally.

 Ft. Collins would seem like a much shorter commute also.

[Kelton]

I just spent this last weekend in Salt Lake City.  (Yea, too bad we didn't meet, Zioncurtain)

Two observations:

While shopping at the upscale Gateway Center on Saturday, I noticed a large percentage of Wyoming license plates in the parking garage (maybe 20%) particularly in the majority were new luxury vehicles licensed in Wyoming, (perhaps 75%).

I had a conversation with a relative who used to work out of SLC as a Greyhound bus driver, driving to and from Green River, WY.  He shared about the many times he had to put chains on the tires of the bus to get through the snow, wait-out blizzards either on the road or in various towns along the way, about how many times roads would be closed or vehicles would be overturned on the ice, and the many times he saw snow in late spring, even in June!  He thought it was beyond absurd for someone to live in Wyoming and commute everyday out of state, speaking from his experience, at least in Western Wyoming.

 

[varrin]

Oh c'mon guys.  I used to commute 8 hours each way to work.  What are y'all complaining about ;-)

Seriously, my wife is probably a better example of commute times.  The last 3 jobs she's had (1 in Florida, 1 in Ohio and 1 in California) all had commute times of at least 30 minutes.  The one in Ohio she got while we were living in Kentucky so that was an out of state commute.  The weather *was* a factor in that commute and after doing it for 3 years she would never do it again.  The average *good* weather commute time was about 35-45 minutes.  The average *bad* weather commute (heavy rain, snow, or freezing rain) was well over an hour and a half.  There were a few days where the commute was impossible (heavy freezing rain).

So those who are quoting a commute time out of Wyoming of an hour should consider the weather, which IMO would be at *least* as big of a factor as it was in the Cincinnati area for us.  Hence, bad weather days would cost at least double if not more commute time.  Now think about spending a much longer winter (Cincinnati's were, except for the freezing rain, not too bad) doing a double, triple or impossible commute.  Now you're going to have difficulty holding down a job becuase of on time reliability.

So with this issue, as with many others, weather is a consideration.  WY's weather is a disadvantage there.  From a weather standpoint, DE should be the easiest out-of-state commute (I'd have to do it if we move there).  WY, I'm thinking would be the toughest (other than, obviously, AK) for weather reasons.  The rest of the western states would all be bad for out-of-state commuting and the northeast would be better, but still not swell.  Obviously the figures reflect that where NH (because of the strong Boston job market) has the most out of state commuters and DE (likely for more favorable weather reasons along with the Philly and Baltimore/DC markets) comes in 2nd.

For what it's worth, the longest *driving* commute times come in areas with good weather.  LA, Bay area, Orlando, Atlanta, etc. etc.  Northeast driving commutes can't touch that, probably because people simply won't do it.  (The obvious exception here is *rail* commuters into NYC)

V-

[JasonPSorens]

Demand can create jobs - but only if we FSP'ers have lots of savings.

Here in Asheville, there's been a big population boom: people wanting to move to a nice area in the mountains.  As a consequence, cost of living is high and wages are low.  My wife is a "project manager" but we don't make enough to pay the bills, not even close.  Fortunately, we have enough savings to last a few months.

Are FSP'ers ready for this reality?  I imagine places like Wyoming & Montana are like Asheville Plus.

[Kelton]

--About commuting, I read in U.S. News and World Reports a couple of years ago that the average total cost of owning and maintaining two newer- model cars equals and even exceeds the average cost of housing in the U.S.  As much as we 'honest-liberals' hate public transportation schemes, the real cost savings of mass transit cannot be ignored, that combined with the fact that you have the opportunity to share the message of freedom face-to-face every day with fellow commuters and not just through that smug bumper- sticker on your car.

[mtPete]

You'll notice those states on the east coast have higher commuting percentages than western rural states. That is because 1) on the coast you don't have to travel near as far to get out of state as out west and 2) those states are more urban where for whatever reason people are willing to spends hours in a car traveling to work.

As far as those low numbers out west here. Those people are mostly those who are working and living out of state, but maintain their residency, such as college students, military personel, and others who have resently left but have not decided to change residency.

Other than that I know of only two other groups of people who work out of state (at least in MT):

1. rich out of state yuppies who commute (often by plane) and who are usually more liberal - anti-liberty minded and who are much cursed in MT.

2. Middle, lower class people working in the oil fields (because it pays good). But such work could end up being in ND, MT or WY, you go where the wells are being drilled. But living away from your family while working on the oil rigs is not the kind of work I think anyone here plans on getting.

In the end the whole idea of communting out of state to a job in the big city, is just a way people who can't imagine living away from the city or can't imagine finding jobs outside of those cities, have to justifiing to themselves moving to a rural state for the FSP.

But really in the end it's not a problem with the rural state, but the state of mind of the person. There are jobs to be found, and things to do, in rural states. Its not that you won't find jobs in a rural state, they just won't pay as much. But on the other hand you won't be spending a lot on long commutes and a high cost of living like you would in a more urban area.

Nor should you be looking for a job out of our free state. Not only will it not be as free there, but you won't be interacting with locals, and becoming as big a part of the community. Both very important things to the FSP.

[JasonPSorens]

I think you're right, MtPete: we really need to be looking at all getting in-state jobs if we really want to be part of the local community.  Getting an out-of-state job can only be a stopgap measure, something to help you survive until you can find something close to home.

[Zxcv]

But really in the end it's not a problem with the rural state, but the state of mind of the person. There are jobs to be found, and things to do, in rural states. Its not that you won't find jobs in a rural state, they just won't pay as much.

You hit the nail on the head, Pete.

I enjoy travelling around eastern Oregon, similar to some of these states. People there live in modest homes, some of them in mobile homes. But the pace of life is much more relaxed. Living in a small home is a price worth paying to be in "God's back yard" as our Christian contingent might put it. Social climbers won't fit in, but people who like to enjoy the important things in life will like the western states. Read some Edward Abbey to get an idea...

I agree with Joe, we really ought to de-emphasize out-of-state work in places like Wyoming. Those "nearby" out of state cities are for occasional weekend jaunts, not for the daily commute.