Free State Project Forum

Archive => Which State? => Topic started by: JasonPSorens on September 26, 2003, 09:59:26 am

Title: opt-outs
Post by: JasonPSorens on September 26, 2003, 09:59:26 am
Since voting has completed, there's no harm in posting these now!  Opt-out figures by state, for all 5413 members who signed up through 9/10 (yeah, we're a bit behind on updating the database).

1. MT, 914 (17%)
2. WY, 957 (18%)
3. ID, 983 (18%)
4. NH, 1012 (19%)
5. VT, 1104 (20%)
6. ME, 1187 (22%)
7. SD, 1481 (27%)
8. DE, 1520 (28%)
9. ND, 1668 (31%)
10. AK, 2038 (38%)

I told you guys MT was going to do better than expected!
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: rhull on September 26, 2003, 10:14:12 am
It might be interesting if the people who had some opt outs would share why they opted out of certain states.
 
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: Radar on September 26, 2003, 11:16:36 am
I opted out of New Hampshire because the FSP has absolutely no chance of success in that state and because the supporters of that state have shown they are untrustworthy because they spread misinformation.  

If New Hampshire is chosen the FSP has already failed and I will have no part in such a futile waste of time.  

I haven't opted out of any other states.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: jgmaynard on September 26, 2003, 11:28:14 am
I opted out of no states, because I believe in the spirit, the people, and the future of the FSP.

JM
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: lcleveland on September 26, 2003, 12:17:48 pm
Radar says "I opted out of New Hampshire"

This alone is enough to make me hope NH is the state.  

Radar, your staunch belief in what you've been saying on these boards is commendable.  However, your rude, disrespectful, and just plain nasty behavior is enough to make me not want to be in the same state w/ you.  You yammer on about how the FSP is doomed to fail in NH.  But your knack for alienating people is a much graver danger to the project.  If we all thought and behaved like you, this project would surely fail.  At this point I am hoping NH is selected.  And that you have a nice life in whatever other location you choose.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: synthbaron on September 26, 2003, 12:35:43 pm
I didn't see an iota of chance  in Delaware, so it ended up at the bottom of my vote.

So, does that mean 20% of the voters will refuse to go to the selected state? I'm going to guess that leaves us with less then 2000 willing souls...
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: Mike Lorrey on September 26, 2003, 01:25:31 pm
Radar says "I opted out of New Hampshire"

This alone is enough to make me hope NH is the state.  

Radar, your staunch belief in what you've been saying on these boards is commendable.  However, your rude, disrespectful, and just plain nasty behavior is enough to make me not want to be in the same state w/ you.  You yammer on about how the FSP is doomed to fail in NH.  But your knack for alienating people is a much graver danger to the project.  If we all thought and behaved like you, this project would surely fail.  At this point I am hoping NH is selected.  And that you have a nice life in whatever other location you choose.

I concur. The amount of invective I've seen on these boards from people like Radar, Joe, among others, has made me seriously question whether I WANT such people to come to my state. I hope all such people opted out of NH so we can be sure to get off on a positive footing when NH is selected.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: bIlluminati on September 26, 2003, 02:16:17 pm
I opted out of VT because I thought that it was too risky to battle the socialists of Burlington as our first choice.

This decision was made on sign-up, before analyzing the data. After analysis, VT was ninth, ahead of Maine. Population, again.

If Vermont had been chosen, I would have gone, but not in the first wave. I'd want to see some success (e.g. 45% at the ballot, 51% not required first time out).

But Maine? In Maine, Olympia Snowe is regarded as conservative, Ross Perot as mainstream. I don't understand this.

And Montana? 2/3 vote for a D in the Senate and an R in the House. I don't see independent thinking here, just "He's senior and brings home the slop" thinking. Of course, I love the wide spaces, and there are a lot of Libertarians.

Soon enough we'll know. It's been great learning from impassioned people how to make (and also how not to make) an argument that combines reason and emotion in a persuasive manner.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: bIlluminati on September 26, 2003, 02:33:53 pm
One last thing on opt-outs:

I think the low number of opt-outs for ID, WY and NH indicate that the braying of a few individuals is not representative of the whole, and that the ratios of 17% to 38% indicate the serious thought that people put into their opt-outs.

It looks like the average person opted out of 2.6 states. If we assume 25% glass-eaters, then of those who opted out of states, they averaged about 3.3 opt-outs per person, or one-third of the states. But for the states of interest, it is under 20%. So, of 4200 reachable voting FSPers, we get about 3360 who say they'll move.

My guess is that we'll get 4 sympathizing movers for each FSPer, so if it's NH, we're at 17,000 of an estimated needed 45,000 (all numbers IMHO). Free State in 2008-2012 time frame. If it's WY, 17,000 of an estimated 17,000(!) WY, is *still* a 2008-2012 timeframe (jobs). Move 'em out!

And yes, Jason, MT will do better than the spreadsheets, and the Dakotas worse. Interestingly, for the vocal supporters of Delaware, it has as high an opt-out rate as the spreadsheets might predict.

Final final note: From the opt-outs, it's going to be close. And a 4-way race (MT, WY, ID, NH).
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: Sean Coven on September 26, 2003, 08:30:32 pm
Radar says "I opted out of New Hampshire"

This alone is enough to make me hope NH is the state.  

Radar, your staunch belief in what you've been saying on these boards is commendable.  However, your rude, disrespectful, and just plain nasty behavior is enough to make me not want to be in the same state w/ you.  You yammer on about how the FSP is doomed to fail in NH.  But your knack for alienating people is a much graver danger to the project.  If we all thought and behaved like you, this project would surely fail.  At this point I am hoping NH is selected.  And that you have a nice life in whatever other location you choose.

I also concur.

Anyway, when I signed up I opted out of every state but Alaska. I had not yet visited the forums and didn't see much potential in most other states.

I'm now a supporter of several other states as well. The only state I have really decided will compel me to drop out of FSP altogether would be Vermont, not because we wouldn't succeed there but because it was the target of a "Socialist State Project"-style thing, and I don't want to be part of a group that's going to ruin somebody else's dreams.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: friendofFSP on September 26, 2003, 09:03:19 pm
I'm now a supporter of several other states as well. The only state I have really decided will compel me to drop out of FSP altogether would be Vermont, not because we wouldn't succeed there but because it was the target of a "Socialist State Project"-style thing, and I don't want to be part of a group that's going to ruin somebody else's dreams.
Quote
Sean you mean to tell me that you don't to ruin some "socialists" dreams. Are you kidding? These commies are the reason we are doing what we are doing in the project. Socialists are the enemies as far as I'm concerned. I would like nothing more than to go in there and completely throw a wrench in that Pinko system.  Just don't say you would vote for Dean for Pres. please.  
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: Sean Coven on September 26, 2003, 09:24:02 pm
How would you like to move to the Free State only to have it soiled by a mass influx of 50,000 statists? That is essentially the reverse of what we would be doing to Vermont. It doesn't help the cause, it just makes us look bad.

I hardly feel bad for them, but I don't want to end up in a state that ultimately becomes a battle ground between two sects of ideologues.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: friendofFSP on September 26, 2003, 09:31:51 pm
You already live in such a place Sean. It's called the United (lol) States of America. Also 50,000 statists may do such a thing. I don't think they would feel bad for a minute trying to screw your dreams. So screw them instead. Did you also feel bad for the people of the USSR when the US tried to nudge them towards freedom cause I'm sure there were quite a few over there that had their dreams squashed when the Commie gov't. collapsed?
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: Sean Coven on September 26, 2003, 09:37:01 pm
You're acting like these people are sharks... they're not going to move to a libertarian state for the sole purpose of screwing over its inhabitants.

Similarly, the worst reason I could think of for us to move to Vermont would be to screw over its inhabitants for the sake of screwing them over, just because we disagree them.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: LeRuineur6 on September 26, 2003, 09:43:56 pm
I would sum up the greatest long-term benefit of the FSP could be the nationwide adoption of a "vote with your feet" political strategy.

Everyone should vote with their feet.  This is the core value of non-interventionism.

If you don't like communist governments, then leave to a more free country.  If you don't like California, then leave to a more free state.

It will someday become a well-known fact which countries (or states) are the most free in the various types of freedom so people can choose to go where they will find the specific types of freedom, or government programs, that they're looking for.

I truly embrace the idea of leading by example rather than by force.  People should stop trying to shove their ideas down everyone's throats, move to where they will be most effective, build their own type of "utopia", and eventually it will become blatantly obvious to all people which type of government is the best.
Title: Re:opt-outs
Post by: RidleyReport on September 26, 2003, 10:58:01 pm
I opted out of Vermont because I support her people's right to experiment with socialism if they want, without us throwing a wrench in their plans.

Each state is supposed to be a political laboritory.  Vermont is one of the few that has really become one,  and it's already been target of a migration once.  

I wouldn't want to live under their rules, but long as they're not forcing me to move there why should I interfere?  We needed to leave Vermont be, and I hope we have chosen to do just that.