Free State Project Forum

Archive => Which State? => Topic started by: LeRuineur6 on July 25, 2003, 11:03:31 pm

Title: Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: LeRuineur6 on July 25, 2003, 11:03:31 pm
Seasonal Disaster Risks in the USA

See the Seasonal Risk Graphs and Spreadsheet here:
http://www.custom-tech.biz/files/SeasonalRisk.xls

My analysis is based on months of research which I conducted 3 years ago for a business plan for my 3rd startup company.  I adopted the original research to apply to the FSP states so we can analyse the natural disaster risks present in each state.


Tornadoes

 Where:  The same 13 States of Tornado Alley.
 FSP States Affected:  All of North Dakota and South Dakota.  Far Eastern edges of Montana and Wyoming.
 When:  Tornado risk peaks during May and June.


Hail

 Where:  The High Plains: Between North Dakota, Texas, The Rocky Mountains, and 95W Longitude.  (The same 13 States of Tornado Alley.)
 FSP States Affected:  All of North Dakota and South Dakota.  Far Eastern edges of Montana and Wyoming.
 When:  Hail risk peaks during April, May, and June.  Slightly earlier than tornado season.


Wild Fires

 Where:  California, the Northern Rockies, and the East and West Great Basin.
 FSP States Affected:  All wooded and mountainous areas of Montana and Wyoming.  Southern Idaho.
 When:  Wild fire risk peaks twice each year, once from March through May, and again from June to July.


Flash Floods

 Where:  Florida, California, Louisiana, Texas, and New Jersey.
 FSP States Affected:  None.
 When:  Flash flood risk peaks during May, June, and July.


High Winds

 Where:  The Eastern U.S., specifically NY and FL.
 FSP States Affected:  Delaware, New Hampshire, and Vermont.  Wind damage is rare in these states.
 When:  High wind risk peaks during June and July.


Severe Winter Storms

 Where:  Tornado Alley and the Northern States.
 FSP States Affected:  Alaska, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.
 When:  Peaks from December through February.


Severe Thunderstorms

 Where:  Southeastern Quadrant of the U.S. and Tornado Alley.
 FSP States Affected:  All of North Dakota and South Dakota.  Far Eastern edges of Montana and Wyoming.
 When:  Peaks from April through June.


Hurricanes

 Where:  Atlantic and East Pacific Basins.
 FSP States Affected:  Delaware, New Hampshire, and Maine.  Only two hurricanes have ever hit these states in recorded history, one in 1938 and one in 1991.
 When:  Peaks from August through October.


Earthquakes

 Where:  West Coast, Alaska, and the Mississippi Valley.
 FSP States Affected:  High-Risk:  Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming.  Low-Risk:  Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont.
 When:  Not seasonal.


Sources:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html
http://www.usfa.fema.gov/pdf/fius11th.pdf
http://www.usfa.fema.gov/pdf/fius9th.pdf
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/techpapers/arp19/19-02.html
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/svrclim.html
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ftproot/lch/dwsvr.htm
http://www.fema.gov/nfip/
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.htm
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/spc/publications/schaefer/database.htm
http://www.nwsnorman.noaa.gov/~cortinas/preprints/waf15/climo.html
http://www.nwstulsa.noaa.gov/science/svrclimo.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.html
http://www.harborinsurance.com/guides/disasterprofile.htm
(Some links are 3 years old and may no longer work.)


Idea:  Using historical data and a thorough independent analysis, after we choose a state we should analyse the costs which will be incurred each year for natural disasters in our state and create an emergency fund.

This will enable our state to withstand a natural disaster without depending on the Federal government to declare a "Disaster Area" and use federal emergency funds to help us!  We don't need their stinking welfare!   ;)

(update:  added Earthquakes)
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis in Candidate States!
Post by: StevenN on July 26, 2003, 12:02:31 am
Quote
This will enable our state to withstand a natural disaster without depending on the Federal government to declare a "Disaster Area" and use federal emergency funds to help us!  We don't need their stinking welfare!

So maybe a good complementary measure would be how much damage in dollars natural disasters cause in the candidates (maybe over the last 5-10 years, with "outliers" being clearly identified).
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis in Candidate States!
Post by: LeRuineur6 on July 26, 2003, 06:42:53 am
Quote
So maybe a good complementary measure would be how much damage in dollars natural disasters cause in the candidates (maybe over the last 5-10 years, with "outliers" being clearly identified).

Good idea!  If such measurements have not been taken before by someone else, it may take a while.  It looks like I will have to look up the cost of each natural disaster each year for each state then add them up.  It sounds easy enough but the data is probably all over the place!  And then I'll need to research each instance where the annual cost was extremely high for each state.

I'm sure this research will be easier today than it was 3 years ago because so much more existing research is online nowadays.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis in Candidate States!
Post by: craft_6 on July 26, 2003, 10:40:11 am
Don't forget that Yellowstone National Park (WY/ID/MT) is sitting on top of the world's largest active volcano.  It could erupt anytime now, or it could be quiet for another 100,000 years or so.  No one knows for sure.

The last time it erupted, it deposited ten feet of volcanic ash -- in Iowa.  If it goes off again, it could be the worst natural disaster in recorded human history.

Of course, the coastal states are also in danger if a large asteroid strikes anywhere in the ocean, which is more likely than one striking land somewhere.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis in Candidate States!
Post by: freedomroad on July 26, 2003, 11:08:51 am
Please use the 'search' feature.  This has already been done a couple of times.  Very complete reviews of all 10 statesw have been done.  I urge everyone to use search before they ask a question.  I do not know if anyone around here posts to usenet but on some newsgroups people will go crazy if you do not first use the search feature before you ask a question.  I am glad that we are more mature, though.

I'll try to do all of the work for you by using the search feature when I have more time.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis in Candidate States!
Post by: LeRuineur6 on July 27, 2003, 10:26:35 am
Quote
Very complete reviews of all 10 statesw have been done.  I urge everyone to use search before they ask a question.

FreedomRoad, I apologize if I missed anything during my search of the FSP forums, but there hasn't been a natural disaster risk analysis that can be found using the FSP search feature on the phrases "natural disaster" or "disaster cost."

Perhaps these are the wrong terms to search by.  If you find anything, please let me know.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis in Candidate States!
Post by: LeRuineur6 on September 05, 2003, 07:30:41 am
Don't forget that Yellowstone National Park (WY/ID/MT) is sitting on top of the world's largest active volcano.  It could erupt anytime now, or it could be quiet for another 100,000 years or so.  No one knows for sure.

The last time it erupted, it deposited ten feet of volcanic ash -- in Iowa.  If it goes off again, it could be the worst natural disaster in recorded human history.

Of course, the coastal states are also in danger if a large asteroid strikes anywhere in the ocean, which is more likely than one striking land somewhere.

Good point.  Check out the big news today:

Yellowstone Geyser Puzzles Geologists (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030904/ap_on_sc/geyser_guessing)

Here are a few short excerpts from the article:

Unlike Old Faithful, Steamboat is anything but predictable. It's gone as few as four days and as many as 50 years between major eruptions — noisy, powerful spectacles that can send hot water 300 feet or higher and churn out dense steam for hours.

Recently, though, it has been more active — its two eruptions so far this year came just weeks apart — and the emergence of a forceful new thermal feature nearby has scientists like Heasler wondering: What's happening in Norris Geyser Basin, where Steamboat is located?

"That's the million dollar question. It's changing more than anyone has noticed before," Heasler said. "Are we noticing because we're looking? Or because something is abnormal?"

What's bubbling beneath the shallow surface of the volatile basin and why has the basin floor been steadily bulging upward over the past few years?
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: johnadams on September 05, 2003, 01:38:46 pm
I used the search feature, and added a bit more data. First of all, I asked myself the question, "What is a disaster?"

Quote
DEFINITION OF MAJOR DISASTER [Federal]
http://www.accessarkansas.org/esd/WorkersUnempBenefits/A_uidua.htm#p1

A "major disaster" means any natural disaster (including hurricane, tornado, storm, flood, high water, wind-driven water, tidal wave, earthquake, drought, ice conditions, fire or other catastrophe) declared by the President to warrant federal government assistance to communities and individuals. After the President makes the declaration and defines the disaster area (if DUA benefits are made available), the Arkansas Employment Security Department announces the filing period and issues filing instructions for DUA applications in a newspaper of general circulation and other news media.


Quote
What's a disaster? [State]
http://www.disasternews.net/news/news.php?articleid=1361

The worst school shooting in U.S. history -- at Littleton High School where two teenage gunmen killed 12 students and one teacher before shooting themselves -- was a state-declared disaster in Colorado.

"It activated the National Guard and allowed the expenditure of funds from the State Disaster Emergency Fund," said Polly White, public information officer for the Colorado Office of Emergency Management. "It was not, however, raised to a federal level because it didn't deplete the state's resources."

State-level definitions of disaster generally include acts of terrorism but many are loose enough to conceivably include crime as well. Colorado, for example, defines disaster in part as "the occurrence or imminent threat of widespread or severe damage, injury, or loss of life or property resulting from any natural cause or cause of human origin."

Colorado also activates its state disaster operations "to avert danger or damage" and includes "civil disturbance" among the specific potential disasters it lists.

CWS defines a disaster as an occurrence -- whether it's a shooting, terrorist attack, or tornado -- that "produces human suffering or creates human needs that survivors cannot alleviate without assistance."

If we use Colorado's definition of "imminent threat of widespread or severe damage, injury, or loss of life or property," then the following phenomena (drought, wildfires, invasive grasses, West Nile virus, cattle diseases, snow and ice storms) would all seem to classify as disasters:


Current Drought Conditions (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/drought/current_phdi.gif)
You can click on this drought map to link to it:
(http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/drought/current_phdi.gif) (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/drought/current_phdi.gif)

And here is another drought map: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Many regions of the Mountain and Western States are currently experiencing drought conditions--moderate, severe, extreme and even exceptional (the most severe drought rating)--and have been in a general drought condition for three years now. Northern NH experienced a moderate drought for about a twelve month period, but it ended some months ago.


Quote
Drought is wild card in water planning
By Phil Magers
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20030624-024538-3021r.htm

In mid-June, extreme drought was reported in a large section of the West, including parts of New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Nevada and Arizona. Exceptional drought, the most severe, was present in small sections of Wyoming, Idaho Utah and Arizona. Moderate drought was even forecast in a section of Maine.


Quote
FSP General Discussion / Which State? / Re:State criteria unchangeable by FSP activists  on: August 23, 2003, 02:56:34 pm  
Started by Joe, aka, Solitar, Message by johnadams

....

West Nile Virus Hitting Western States Hardest

...if you check this MAP you'll see that, currently, cases of human infection by West Nile virus are concentrated in South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado and Wyoming. Colorado is the most infected state in the nation. ME, NH and VT all had zero human infections as of this map.


West Nile Virus Worse in WY than NH

HUMANS:

Wyoming: 3
...

New Hampshire: 0
http://westnilemaps.usgs.gov/usa_human.html

BIRDS:

Wyoming: 71
...
http://westnilemaps.usgs.gov/wyoming/wy_avian.html

New Hampshire: 7
...
http://westnilemaps.usgs.gov/new_hampshire/nh_avian.html


Colorado leads the nation in human infection by West Nile virus with 638 infected and 8 dead.

Colorado reports 8th West Nile virus death (http://durangoherald.com/asp-bin/article_generation.asp?article_type=health&article_path=/health/health030823_3.htm)
August 23, 2003
The Associated Press


While the New York City metropolitan area, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania have high levels of reported bird and mosquito infections, their level of human infection is actually lower than Colorado and other Western states.


NH, by contrast, has hardly been affected:

First West Nile-Infected Mosquito Found In New Hampshire
No Human Cases Reported In State

POSTED: 3:57 p.m. EDT August 22, 2003
http://www.thechamplainchannel.com/wnne/2427734/detail.html

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- State health officials said Friday they have identified the state's first West Nile virus in a mosquito this year.
….

Although the virus has infected more than 700 humans nationally this year and caused 16 deaths, there has never been a confirmed human case in New Hampshire.


Western cattle most threatened by West Nile Virus

If you check this [http://westnilemaps.usgs.gov/usa_human.html]MAP[/url] you'll see that animals have been hardest hit by West Nile virus in Western states like MT, WY, CO and NM. This is a serious and growing problem for ranchers and farmers in those states.

....

And there is even a cheatgrass invasion impacting Western states:

Cheatgrass threatens Wyoming grassland
Associated Press
http://montanaforum.com/rednews/2002/12/04/build/ag/cheatgrass.php?nnn=4

GILLETTE, Wyo. (AP) - One of the latest threats facing Wyoming doesn't involve the economy, coalbed methane or the West Nile virus.
It's the abundant annual plant cheatgrass.
"We have seen what cheatgrass has done to adjacent states and we should be worried because it could happen in Wyoming," said Vicki Herren, a Cheyenne-based fire ecologist for the Bureau of Land Management.
Cheatgrass can easily take over fields, stealing moisture critical to native plants that wildlife depend on. It also dries out quickly and then becomes an extreme fire danger.
And once cheatgrass is established, removing it is difficult and costly.
"It is here but it isn't everywhere, and we'd like to prevent the further spread of it," Herren said.
But very little has been done about cheatgrass in Wyoming.
….


Along with West Nile virus, there are other growing disease threats impacting Western cattle: tuberculosis, brucellosis, whirling disease and chronic wasting disease

"Suddenly, there are new reasons to worry about diseases we thought were controlled long ago, such as tuberculosis and brucellosis - as well as diseases of which, until recent years, we were blissfully ignorant, such as West Nile virus, whirling disease and chronic wasting disease." --www.wolfhowl.org/archives/news/2002-05-01.txt

....
continued...
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: johnadams on September 05, 2003, 01:51:10 pm
(continued) More mention of disasters:

Quote
Miscellaneous / Current Events / Re:Montana Plumb Creek Operations closing down and more!  on: August 26, 2003, 11:56:22 am  
Started by Scott ISMP, Message by Norris
 
There's plenty of timber in Westerm Montana but the government has allowed cosmetics to dictate forestry decisions. It seems the liberals want to be able to go on top of a mountain and see pristine untouched old growth all around them.

That would be nice, but catastrophic fires occur from time to time and turn those pristine mountains into a moonscape, killing off all the wildlife and silting the rivers.

Sound forestry practices like thinning and leaving logging roads servicable can help manage fire damage.

They should at least let loggers harvest areas infested with dwarf-mistletoe and other parasites and areas where there is good standing dead fire-damaged timber, but they are reluctant to even do that.

To some degree it's just a matter of "use it or lose it". Someday it will all burn down.  USFS and BLM wont figure that into the equation.
     
 
 FSP General Discussion / Which State? / Re:State criteria unchangeable by FSP activists  on: August 25, 2003, 03:46:43 pm  
Started by Joe, aka, Solitar, Message by johnadams

I found some more info on invasive grass specie invasions, Exitus. Apparently, the FSP states most impacted by cheatgrass and leafy spurge (another noxious, invasive weed) are MT, ND, SD, WY and ID. Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming have apparently become particularly susceptible to invasive grasses because of the severe three-year drought in those states. Here is a good, brief summary of the problem:

Harmful Weeds Threaten Nation's Ecosystem
National Conference Aims to Protect Land by Controlling Invasive Plants
http://www.mt.blm.gov/ea/news2003/IWAC.02-24-03.htm

Leafy Spurge: Infesting almost 2.5 million acres in North Dakota, Montana, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska and Utah, leafy spurge crowds out most other vegetation, rendering lands useless; and can cause severe, life-threatening problems in grazing cattle.

Cheatgrass: One of the most dominate invasive species, cheatgrass increases the frequency of wildfires and has caused more than $1.38 billion in damage from resultant fires. States already overcome by cheatgrass infestations include: Idaho, Utah, and Nevada. States that are at risk include Colorado, Kansas, Montana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Oregon.
     
 
 FSP General Discussion / Which State? / Re:State criteria unchangeable by FSP activists  on: August 25, 2003, 03:00:30 pm  
Started by Joe, aka, Solitar, Message by johnadams

johnadams wrote: Along with West Nile virus, there are other growing disease threats impacting Western cattle: tuberculosis, brucellosis, whirling disease and chronic wasting disease

....Please note that the article I quoted from was talking about cattle, not people. ... Wyoming ... doesn't have a cattle tuberculosis problem yet (though ranchers in the Mountain states are reportedly worried it will eventually spread there from Texas and Michigan, where it is currently most prevalent), but it does have problems with cattle brucellosis, whirling disease and chronic wasting disease.

My point about the cattle diseases was that they, along with the severe drought and invasion of foreign grasses of inferior nutrition can have an impact on the cattle industry in Wyoming, and thus on the state economy in general. The cattle industry is the biggest part of the state's farm sector as the poor soil and arid climate are not well suited for farming most crops. The livestock industry is one of three large industries in Wyoming, mining and tourism being the other two. It accounts "for around 70 percent of all [agricultural] cash receipts" and "agriculture has a total economic impact of nearly $1.5 billion on the Wyoming economy. ... [F]arm and agricultural services provides 17,00 jobs in Wyoming." (Agriculture Profile)

Animal diseases can also impact hunting. And, while transmission of these diseases to humans is considered highly unlikely, scientists are unwilling to rule it out, especially given the previously-thought impossible transmission of Mad-Cow Disease to humans.

From Researcher Making Model of Disease Similar to Mad-Cow Disease-(U. Kentucky)
U-WIRE
Scott Sloan
October 03, 2001
http://www.mycattle.com/archive/health/health012.cfm

Chronic wasting disease has been documented in free-range and captive mule and whitetail deer and elk populations in northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming and capitve deer in South Dakota, according to the Colorado State University College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.

About 10 percent of those deer in southeastern Wyoming and less than one percent of elk exhibit signs of chronic wasting disease, said Terry Kreeger, supervisor of veterinary services at the Wyoming Game and Fish Department.

Brucellosis and Yellowstone Bison
http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahps/brucellosis/cattle.htm

results of epidemiological investigations point to domestic bison as the likely source of the disease in infected cattle herds found in Wyoming and North Dakota. In addition, wild elk or bison in the GYA have been identified as the most probable source of infection for five additional cattle herds.  Infected elk were the most probable source of brucellosis infection (fistulous withers) in horses in Wyoming.  Most recently, elk were the source of infection of a cattle herd in Idaho.
....
risk of disease spread from elk is increased. APHIS has assisted the State of Wyoming with funding to vaccinate elk on elk feedgrounds to reduce the prevalence of the disease and to fund habitat improvement efforts to keep the elk dispersed over a larger area and away from cattle and feedgrounds.


Disease Transmission Between Elk and Cattle
http://www.cnr.uidaho.edu/range/elk_cattle/disease.htm

Development of winter feedgrounds for elk in Wyoming during the early 1900’s were suspected to have led to transmission of brucellosis between livestock and wildlife.
....
Blood samples from elk at feeding grounds were tested for detection of brucellosis. All feedground elk were suspected to test positive because in 18 of 23 northwest Wyoming feedgrounds elk tested positive for brucellosis.
....
Elk vaccination program costs ranged from $80,000 to $100,000 each year. Veterinary Services and the Wyoming Game and Fish funded the program.

Other issues discussed include the effects of government compensation to ranchers experiencing vaccination costs. Implications of the total brucellosis elimination sentiment were discussed and determined to be impractical.

More elk permits to become available[/b]
Thursday, January 14, 1999
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
COLUMN: John Kimak

CWD [Chronic Wasting Disease] has been confirmed in South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Ralph Maughan's Wildlife Reports
http://www.forwolves.org/ralph/stories.html

8-21-2003. Thousands on Edge as British Columbia Fire Grows. Yahoo News. By Allan Dowd. Southern B.C. and Alberta, like Idaho, Montana, and western Wyoming has been suffering from severe drought.

8-21-2003. Almost all the big forest fires this year are in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, the 3 states suffering the most from the drought. See. U.S. Drought Severity Index (map).

8-16-2003. Wyoming antelope flourish despite drought. Billings Gazette. Good news! Sadly the same can't be said for the antelope in Idaho.


I found one reason why West Nile virus has been impacting Wyoming more than most states: stagnant pools of water at coal-bed methane drilling sites, which the feds recently started requiring (another negative impact from federal land management). ....

Dead sage grouse tested positive for West Nile
Protection for bird under Endangered Species Act again may be sought
By Mead Gruver, Associated Press
August 12, 2003

"The concern is all this standing water from coal-bed methane. There is so much more water out there, thus there is so much more mosquitoes, thus there is so much more West Nile," she said.

Drilling for coal-bed methane removes groundwater along with the gas. Federal regulations now require the water to be collected in ponds so potentially toxic minerals do not get into streams and rivers.

"It's definitely another nail in the coffin for sage grouse, because they've already got so many things that are affecting them, and then you just add one more to it," Morrison said.

Morrison's group is one of several that filed lawsuits this spring after the U.S. Bureau of Land Management released its plan for coal-bed methane development in northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana.
....

[Game and Fish Department spokesman Jeff Obrecht] said the presence of West Nile will not be an emergency for sage grouse hunters this fall. All the same, he urged hunters not to eat internal organs, such as gizzards, and to cook birds thoroughly.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: johnadams on September 05, 2003, 01:53:07 pm
(continued) More mention of disasters:

Quote
FSP Strategy Discussion / Free State Strategy - Politics / Re:National Parks  on: August 21, 2003, 04:18:45 pm  
Started by schletty, Message by Hank

....Don't be swayed by thoughts of wonderful nature parks where you might go to commune with nature when they are owned by people who think the one species which should be eliminated from the earth is man.  Think about the reality of it.  Vast forests teeming with animal life, until it all burns down and no place for the animals to go, and humans forbidden to enter to clear underbrush or put out the fires. ....
 
[My note: poor management of federal lands--including forest fires started by federal rangers--adds to the risk of wildfires.]


 FSP Strategy Discussion / Free State Strategy - Politics / Re:Free State Constitutional Militia  on: August 10, 2003, 02:22:54 pm  
Started by bipolar17, Message by Dada Orwell

racer, azpal:

Interesting links about the State Guard!  .... In WY we could help a lot with wildfires... in NH we'd do snowstorms I bet. ....

 
 FSP Strategy Discussion / Free State Strategy - Politics / Re:Free State Constitutional Militia  on: July 23, 2003, 09:06:23 pm  
Started by bipolar17, Message by Ceol Mhor
Mr Lorrey,

....the militia would probably be viewed quite well if it deployed to help fight wildfires (particularly in the west), had its members deputized to aid the local law enforcement in serious manhunts or rescue searches, and that sort of thing. ....
     

 FSP General Discussion / Which State? / No Wildfires  on: July 16, 2003, 10:21:34 am  
Started by Michelle, Message by Number_6

Another point in favor of NH (and, to be fair, some of the other states as well):  no wildfires.  I was watching the TV news this morning and it seemed like there were a lot of fires in the Rocky Mountain states.  This might be important to those Porcupines who plan on living in rural areas. ....

...and I'm sure there is much more.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: DadELK68 on September 05, 2003, 02:39:00 pm
Wow, talk about irony - I read these posts and then get this in my e-mail (I'm a physician in NH):

First Human Case of West Nile Virus in a New Hampshire Citizen

Concord, NH - The New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services' Office of Community and Public Health reports the first positive case of West Nile virus in a New Hampshire resident. The 37-year-old woman from Rockingham County traveled to Nebraska prior to becoming ill. She did not require hospitalization and is now recovering and doing well.

"Because of her travel history  there is a high probability of this case
being acquired outside of New Hampshire; but even if it was a locally
acquired case, this would not be an unexpected event," said Dr. Jose
Montero, Chief of the Bureau of Communicable Disease Control. "West Nile virus has been in our state for three years now. It was inevitable that someone will eventually be bitten by an infected mosquito and contract the disease.

Fortunately, prevention efforts taken by towns, residents, and our state
health department over the past few years have contributed greatly to
lowering the risk of people getting West Nile."
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Blain on September 06, 2003, 10:13:01 am
Wyoming has a HUGE underground volcano which is ready to blow from underneath.  That state is going to be done soon.  Alaska also has a major disaster heading it's way.  
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Johnny Silverseed on September 06, 2003, 03:00:07 pm
Fortunately, prevention efforts taken by towns, residents, and our state
health department over the past few years have contributed greatly to
lowering the risk of people getting West Nile."
Open your mind to colloidal silver...even Bioterrorisn't anymore!


---------
Mod note: I deleted the link to the commercial site as Elizabeth had requested he do.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Elizabeth on September 06, 2003, 11:49:06 pm
Johnny, the forum guidelines specify that people not advertise, except in the Businesses/Jobs forum.  Please edit your post -- thanks.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: freedomroad on September 07, 2003, 12:22:49 am
Wyoming has a HUGE underground volcano which is ready to blow from underneath.  That state is going to be done soon.  Alaska also has a major disaster heading it's way.  

In Yellowstone there is a volcano which might be active and that might someday cause some type of reaction.  First off, Cheyenne and Laramie (2 or WY's 3 largest cities) are in the opposite corner of the state.  Second off, there is a much greater chance that if something were to happen because of this volcano that the people of ID and MT would be hurt much more (if there is any damage).
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Robert H. on September 07, 2003, 02:52:02 am
As Craft_6 points out, Yellowstone's volcano could potentially erupt anytime in the next 100,000 or so years.  Just like we're told that California is overdue for "the Big One," the Earth is overdue for an extinction level asteroid strike, and an Altantic island is "on the verge" of collapsing into the ocean and creating a tidal wave that would inundate the Eastern US all the way to the Tennessee Valley.

We have not yet learned to read the evidence in nature so as to determine what may happen and when.  Only recently have we developed the technology to even monitor most of these risks.  This is one reason why I'm very skeptical of the global warming craze.  For all we know, our current weather patterns could be part of a cycle that we do not understand.

Another reason is that I remember the "new ice age" warnings we were hearing back in the 70's.   ;D
Title: Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: Samizdat on September 10, 2003, 09:26:12 pm
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0828_wireyellowstone.html (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0828_wireyellowstone.html)

Read link to learn why Wyoming won't work.
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: StevenN on September 10, 2003, 10:40:21 pm
I'll assume you're talking about Yellowstone as being a "World Heritage Site" by the United Nations. Run those under Google for more info.

First of all, I thought the UN had no actually binding soveriegnty. If the people of WY ignore the UN, what can they really do.

Plus, I think this is an issue that the vast majority of Wyomingans would be on our side, even if they're against us on everything else. Just tell 'em part of their state is being controlled by the UN.

So this highlights an interesting relationship between the UN, the Feds, and the state.

But believe me, nothing would be more satisfying that thumbing our noses at the enviro-bureaucrats at the UN!  ;)
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: Bonner County on September 10, 2003, 11:02:46 pm
Thumbing your nose at the UN is quite fun.When they had their small arms conference.some of my buddies and I sent some helmets painted UN blue to Coffee Anus,they were perforated with 7.62mm and 5.56mm holes.
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: synthbaron on September 10, 2003, 11:05:12 pm
If Yellowstone blows again during our lifetime, I think I'd be one to die quickly then to suffer the consequences elsewhere...
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: Samizdat on September 10, 2003, 11:22:19 pm
Spazdat your link doesn't work

Try it now, Bonnet Country.
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: synthbaron on September 10, 2003, 11:23:01 pm
Well, ok, maybe you wouldn't have to worry about it so much if you were in an eastern state:

http://www.solcomhouse.com/volano_lg.jpg (http://www.solcomhouse.com/volano_lg.jpg)
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: Samizdat on September 10, 2003, 11:27:55 pm
I'll assume you're talking about Yellowstone as being a "World Heritage Site" by the United Nations. Run those under Google for more info.


Here's a novel suggestion: read the link http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0828_wireyellowstone.html (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0828_wireyellowstone.html)
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: johnadams on September 11, 2003, 12:02:00 am
The Jellystone Jiggle
[/font]
I had no idea that Yellowstone's volcano was as magmatically and seismically active as it is. Strange as it may seem, I find it fascinating. 15,000 earthquakes between 1973 and 1998? That's way cool! Luckily, given that Yellowstone is a park, I doubt there are many permanent dwellings there, and they have been adding a lot of monitoring equipment:

"The Yellowstone observatory consists of a string of 28 electronic detection stations scattered through the park. Related plans call for at least 100 more monitoring sites."

And if statist Californians can get used to earthquakes, surely rugged Porcupines can handle them too.

From Yellowstone Volcano: Is "the Beast" Building to a Violent Tantrum? (http://216.239.39.104/search?q=cache:L2hySlxoDNoJ:news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0828_wireyellowstone.html+&hl=en&ie=UTF-8)
StandardNET
August 30, 2001

The Earth has always shaken periodically around Yellowstone. But without the proper monitoring equipment in place, no one knew how often it happened or why. [Robert Smith, a geophysicist at the University of Utah], who has been investigating here for more than 30 years, set up seismometers and found earthquakes by the hundreds.

...the earthquakes Smith started tracking three decades ago—15,000 between 1973 and 1998, often in swarms—didn't altogether fit conventional notions of seismicity. ....

"It was not a surprise it was a young volcano," [Robert Christiansen of the U.S. Geological Survey] recalled. "It was a surprise it was as young as it is." [Christiansen was the Scientist-in-Charge of the Mount St. Helens monitoring effort during the 1980 eruption.]

....Together, the two men were able to see the system for what it was: a very active and large volcano that had sculpted much of the Northwest.

In the mid-1970s, while surveying an old benchmark put into place when the first roads were cut through Yellowstone in 1923, Smith found that the ground had risen three feet (one meter) in five decades.

There could be only one explanation. The volcano was bulging upward.

Christiansen doubts the likelihood of another cataclysmic eruption any time soon, but he doesn't rule out something smaller. Earthquakes, rock slides, and steam explosions from geyser basins are all possible. A blowout on the scale of Mount St. Helens is conceivable, he said, adding: "We need to be prepared."


YELLOWSTONE EARTHQUAKES (1983-Present)
http://www.seis.utah.edu/HTML/YPEvents1983-Pres.html

(http://www.seis.utah.edu/HistoricalEvents/YPEvents1983-Pres.gif) (http://www.seis.utah.edu/HTML/YPEvents1983-Pres.html)


From August 2003 Yellowstone Seismicity Summary
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/monitoring.html

During the month of August 2003, 101 earthquakes were located in the Yellowstone region.  The largest shock to occur during this report period was a magnitude 4.3 earthquake on August 21st at 07:46 UTC, located about 23.3 miles south southeast of West Thumb, Wyoming and 9 miles southeast of the south entrance to Yellowstone National Park.


From Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Established
U.S. Geological Survey, Yellowstone National Park and the University of Utah Partnership  
May 14, 2001
http://www.seis.utah.edu/recactivity/yvorelease.shtml

The Yellowstone National Park and surrounding area encompass the largest active magmatic system in North America.
....

The Yellowstone region is seismically active. The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake (surface-wave magnitude 7.5), centered just outside the Park's northwestern boundary was responsible for 26 of the quake's 28 deaths. This event is one of the 15 strongest earthquakes ever recorded in the contiguous U.S.

"While the active geologic processes at Yellowstone do impart some risk to the public, they also make it a unique treasure -- it is the volcanic and seismic energy that powers the geysers and hot springs, creates the mountains and canyons, and generates the unique ecosystems that support Yellowstone's diverse wildlife," notes Paul K. Doss, Yellowstone National Park Coordinating Scientist of YVO


From When will Yellowstone erupt again?
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/faqs4.html

We do not know. Future volcanic eruptions could occur within or near Yellowstone National Park for the simple reason that the area has a long volcanic history and because there is hot and molten rock, or magma, beneath the caldera now. Yellowstone is monitored for signs of volcanic activity by YVO scientists who detect earthquakes using seismographs and ground motion using GPS (Global Positioning System). YVO has not detected signs of activity that suggest an eruption is imminent.
....

Yellowstone's 2-million-year history of volcanism, the copious amount of heat that still flows from the ground, the frequent earthquakes, and the repeated uplift and subsidence of the caldera floor also testify to the continuity of magmatic processes beneath Yellowstone and point to the possibility of future volcanism and earthquake activity.
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: johnadams on September 11, 2003, 12:25:14 am
FYI, Samizdat, there's already a thread on natural disasters, including more info on Yellowstone at: Jellystone Jiggle (http://forum.freestateproject.org/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=2657;start=msg52140#msg52140).
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: johnadams on September 11, 2003, 12:31:03 am
If Yellowstone blows again during our lifetime, I think I'd be one to die quickly then to suffer the consequences elsewhere...
Yeah, cool! It would be like experiencing firsthand the fire and brimstone  of the Book of Revelation.  Who needs the easy life in a state with economic prosperity when they can have that? ;D

Revelation 9:17 And thus I saw the horses in the vision, and them that sat on them, having breastplates of fire, and of jacinth, and brimstone: and the heads of the horses were as the heads of lions; and out of their mouths issued fire and smoke and brimstone.  
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: Morpheus on September 11, 2003, 06:12:28 am
As absolutely non-Abrahamic as I am, I must say that the aesthetic and psychodrama of such is quite fascinating indeed...
Title: Re:Why Wyoming's a Bad Idea
Post by: StevenN on September 11, 2003, 11:12:51 am
Quote
Here's a novel suggestion: read the link

It was broken when I posted my response.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Mike Lorrey on September 12, 2003, 02:45:00 pm
NH's hurricane risk is only along the seacoast itself with storm surge tides. I've never seen hurricane damage in NH outside of a few downed trees. By the time a hurricane reaches our latitude, it has weakened considerably, and makes landfall on Long Island and CT, going across CT, RI, and MA before hitting NH. Winds are severely reduced by the time they reach us.

As for earthquakes, there have been only two earthquakes detectable by human beings in my entire life here in NH, and they were extremely minor, with absolutely NO damage reported anywhere in the state.

Tornado risk is extremely small. The worst tornadoes we get are F1 and those occur maybe once every few years.

Winter storm risk: yes we get them, and they can be very severe in terms of snowfall, icefall, and with roads shut down and power outages, but only on rare occasion. Anybody who is prepared (4wd, some home supplies, shovels, snowblowers, etc) never has problems dealing with them. If you look at winter as an adventure to be prepared for, you'll never suffer losses. Most people who die or are injured do so because they insist on driving in bad conditions with vehicles incapable of dealing with them. Typically these are flatlanders. It's evolution in action.

Flooding: generally once a decade we get significant rainfall in the spring, while the snow is melting in some part of the state that pushes rivers above flood stage. The Plymouth Plateau where the Baker and Pemigewassett Rivers join has had several of these, as much as 6 feet above the river banks, and we've had flooding in the Mascoma River Valley that went 2-4 feet above the river banks. The entire Merrimack and Connecticutt River watersheds have been the subject of flood control technologies for centuries now and I do not recall the last time someone died from flooding in NH.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Mike Lorrey on September 12, 2003, 02:49:08 pm
The Jellystone Jiggle
[/font]
I had no idea that Yellowstone's volcano was as magmatically and seismically active as it is. Strange as it may seem, I find it fascinating.

From When will Yellowstone erupt again?
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/faqs4.html

We do not know. Future volcanic eruptions could occur within or near Yellowstone National Park for the simple reason that the area has a long volcanic history and because there is hot and molten rock, or magma, beneath the caldera now. Yellowstone is monitored for signs of volcanic activity by YVO scientists who detect earthquakes using seismographs and ground motion using GPS (Global Positioning System). YVO has not detected signs of activity that suggest an eruption is imminent.
....

The thing is that the Yellowstone Caldera includes almost the entire area of the state of Wyoming. If you look at a topographical map that shows the continental divide lines, you'll see that the divide splits in southern Wyoming and comes back together up north. This entire basin is the collapsed caldera of Yellowstone. If, and when, Yellowstone blows again, it will be the entire state of Wyoming that will go up in smoke.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Solitar on September 12, 2003, 03:40:19 pm
Mike Lorrey, according to the USGS (see below links), your following is incorrect.
You are the one extrapolating to the entire western half of Wyoming.
Quote
The thing is that the Yellowstone Caldera includes almost the entire area of the state of Wyoming. If you look at a topographical map that shows the continental divide lines, you'll see that the divide splits in southern Wyoming and comes back together up north. This entire basin is the collapsed caldera of Yellowstone. If, and when, Yellowstone blows again, it will be the entire state of Wyoming that will go up in smoke.

First, a reminder that Yellowstone is a very tiny part of the northwest quarter of Wyoming.  Please dig up your road atlas while the following graphic loads.
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/figures/fig1.html

The above came from this USGS page which includes photos.
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/history.html

If you couldn't find your road atlas, the following has an inset map showing tiny Yellowstone in Wyoming. It also has a closeup perspective.
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/LvlMap.html

Note that the caldera is about 1,000 sq. miles out of Wyoming's 97,000 square miles -- about one percent.  Yep, only 1% of Wyoming.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Tony Stelik on September 12, 2003, 03:47:01 pm
If this thing blows the whole states (USA) and plus would be death. It blows regularly every 600 + million years and now is due. It might be within next 1 milion though, so what the beef? I watched this on discovery some weeks ago and posted some where around, but this was supposed to be just as ajoke. Suprvoulcano eruption will likely end civilisation as it is today
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Mike Lorrey on September 12, 2003, 07:17:24 pm
Johnadams, according to the USGS (see below links), your following is incorrect.
You are the one extrapolating to the entire western half of Wyoming.
Quote
The thing is that the Yellowstone Caldera includes almost the entire area of the state of Wyoming. If you look at a topographical map that shows the continental divide lines, you'll see that the divide splits in southern Wyoming and comes back together up north. This entire basin is the collapsed caldera of Yellowstone. If, and when, Yellowstone blows again, it will be the entire state of Wyoming that will go up in smoke.

If you couldn't find your road atlas, the following has an inset map showing tiny Yellowstone in Wyoming. It also has a closeup perspective.
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/LvlMap.html

Note that the caldera is about 1,000 sq. miles out of Wyoming's 97,000 square miles -- about one percent.  Yep, only 1% of Wyoming.


Actually, what I was describing was an older caldera. Looking at a mapquest map of the continental divide, down where I-80 passes by Table Rock, you see the feature I'm speaking of. My bad.

This being said, the Yellowstone still would wipe out the entire state if it lit off. Geological record shows that it covers all of WY along with parts of UT, CO, and other western states with lava and ash to significant depths when it blows.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Samizdat on September 13, 2003, 12:50:41 am
Luckily, given that Yellowstone is a park, I doubt there are many permanent dwellings there


Try reading the part of the article stating that when Yellowstone blows it will lay waste to everything within 500 miles.

Ever heard of Spokane, Salt Lake City, Boise?  How about Billings or Helena?  Does Denver, a whole 85 miles past the radius of devastation, look like a pretty good place to be when unstable Yellowstone erupts?
The scientists admit they don't know if it will go up in a million years, or tomorrow.  There are plenty of geologically unstable places with which to concern ourselves, without gravitating to one of the worst (I'd sooner recommend San Francisco, L.A., and the rest of the Pacific-North American plate collision zone).
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: johnadams on September 14, 2003, 03:06:29 pm
If this thing blows the whole states (USA) and plus would be death. It blows regularly every 600 + million years and now is due. ....
I think it last blew about 600 thousand, rather than million, years ago and the quotes of scientists I read said that they currently do not have sufficient data to make an educated guess about when it will blow next, but they are working on that and do not think it will be anytime soon. A major earthquake could happen anytime, however.

I am skeptical of the claim that a major Yellowstone eruption would destroy the entire country, but it has been said by scientists that a major Yellowstone volcano eruption would be far more devastating than the Mt. St. Helens disaster. My guess is that the areas worst hit will partly depend on which direction(s) the wind blows and the lava flows.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: johnadams on September 14, 2003, 03:59:03 pm
Luckily, given that Yellowstone is a park, I doubt there are many permanent dwellings there


Try reading the part of the article stating that when Yellowstone blows it will lay waste to everything within 500 miles. ....

The link you provide to the National Geographic article is undependable; I found the Google cache link to be more consistently available. I reviewed the article again and couldn't find mention of the 500 mile figure you noted. Are you speaking of a different article?

Still, a major Yellowstone eruption would be devastating (and would also threaten Montana, and perhaps other states, and would likely impact world weather patterns), as the following quote from the article indicates:

"this seemingly serene plateau could blow so hard it would make the 1980 Mount St. Helens explosion look like a sneeze."

--Yellowstone Volcano: Is "the Beast" Building to a Violent Tantrum? (http://216.239.39.104/search?q=cache:L2hySlxoDNoJ:news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0828_wireyellowstone.html+&hl=en&ie=UTF-8)

Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Bonner County on September 14, 2003, 08:02:19 pm
It looks like Isabel is going to SLAM delaware.Maybe we'll get lucky and she'll take out DC
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: jgilyeat on September 14, 2003, 09:21:42 pm
Actually, the last estimated tracks that I've seen have Isabel making landfall in the Cape Hattaras or Virginia Beach areas, and then tracking up into the Chesapeake Bay.

Being someone who lives outside of Baltimore (-west- side, thankfully), it really doesn't matter if it 's 50 miles farther east, we're -still- going to get the crap beat out of us.

While I detest some of the things that George and Ashcroft have been pulling, praying that DC gets levelled (which is essentially what you're doing) ain't kosher, man.  It gets levelled, and 2 of my brothers and my parents likely get whacked, too.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: freedomroad on September 14, 2003, 09:29:09 pm
Actually, the last estimated tracks that I've seen have Isabel making landfall in the Cape Hattaras or Virginia Beach areas, and then tracking up into the Chesapeake Bay.

Being someone who lives outside of Baltimore (-west- side, thankfully), it really doesn't matter if it 's 50 miles farther east, we're -still- going to get the crap beat out of us.


I hope the FSP members (and others) in DE, DC, VA, and the rest of the area stay safe.

However, this does bring up a point.  People can pretend that ID/MT/WY/SD/ND will all be wasted by a quake, but there is actual danger in DE.  Well, there is also serious danger of freezing to death in all of the states (although it is very little in DE compared to the rest).  My mom was telling me about how her mailman froze to death when she lived in ME.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: JonM on September 14, 2003, 09:47:25 pm
Actually, the last estimated tracks that I've seen have Isabel making landfall in the Cape Hattaras or Virginia Beach areas, and then tracking up into the Chesapeake Bay.

Being someone who lives outside of Baltimore (-west- side, thankfully), it really doesn't matter if it 's 50 miles farther east, we're -still- going to get the crap beat out of us.


I hope the FSP members (and others) in DE, DC, VA, and the rest of the area stay safe.

However, this does bring up a point.  People can pretend that ID/MT/WY/SD/ND will all be wasted by a quake, but there is actual danger in DE.  Well, there is also serious danger of freezing to death in all of the states (although it is very little in DE compared to the rest).  My mom was telling me about how her mailman froze to death when she lived in ME.

10,000+ people died from heat in France, at 104 degrees.  It goes over 100 in Florida where I grew up, and can go way over in southwestern states.  Yet people don't drop like flies.  It's all in being prepared for what may happen.  If it hits 100 and you don't have A/C, drink water, not red wine.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: jgilyeat on September 14, 2003, 09:55:12 pm
Thanks, Keith.
I'm not looking forward to dealing with a storm that could rival what an unnamed storm did to MD in 1933...think Andrew, only a thousand miles to the north.
Hugo ain't got -nothin- on Isabel.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Bonner County on September 14, 2003, 10:15:30 pm
-- Note from moderator (Dada Orwell) --

Bonner County's post deleted for advocating deaths of individuals not known to be guilty of violent crimes.

--End note from moderator--
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: jgilyeat on September 14, 2003, 10:35:36 pm
I, on the other hand, do not, as much as I dislike how my parents have handled their interpersonal relationships.

The advocation of the deaths of innocents to 'eliminate' those who are enemies of freedom smacks of the same sort of attitude that permeates the halls of Congress today.  The ends do _NOT_ justify the means if those means require that non-participants be sacrificed simply because they are inconveniently located.
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: LeRuineur6 on September 26, 2003, 02:43:08 pm
Here's a nice look at what type of earthquakes we can expect from the West, the Central US, or the East:

It's not looking good for the West!   ;)

Historical Earthquake Map of the Western US (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/us_west.html)   :o

Historical Earthquake Map of the Central US (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/us_cen.html)

Historical Earthquake Map of the Eastern US (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/seismicity/us_east.html)

This changes everything!  :D
Title: Re:Natural Disaster Analysis of Candidate States!
Post by: Kelton on September 26, 2003, 03:10:18 pm
This changes everything!  :D

Yea, earthquakes are pretty good at changing things and so are tornadoes, hurricanes, volcanoes and other things.  Hopefully, in whichever state we have selected the FSP activists will long be remembered as a powerful force for political change too!