Free State Project Forum

Archive => Which State? => Topic started by: StevenN on July 05, 2003, 12:42:20 am

Title: Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: StevenN on July 05, 2003, 12:42:20 am
This seems to be the crux of the NH debate. It's not that the people of NH aren't liberty-friendly, but that it will be "invaded" by citizens from neighboring states. A faulty assumption is that, since these citizens come from "statist" states, they themselves must be statist.

But let's take a look at the videotape.

We have heard from numerous sources "on the ground" that this is not a "statist" invasion. Bostonians and some VT'ers generally look down on NH. Talking to them, you'd think that moving to NH would be like moving to Grozny. It makes sense, of course. Statists like the statist policies in their statist states (is that an anamonapea? ;D).

Now, lets go back to our sources "on the ground". They all say that your average immigrant from MA or VT is likely to be a tax-refugee that would be very supportive of our cause. In fact, a poster here (heyduke) from NH who seemed to be not to friendly to the FSP said that these were mainly liberty-friendly tax refugees.

Or notice that where liberty is making the most progress is in southern NH!

Now, I think the recent immigration #'s for NH were about 7,000 a year. If only several dozen of these were freedom-friendly, it would have a neutral effect on our "effectiveness". I would think that at least several hundred - if not thousands - of these immigrants are FSP-friendly, which would actually improve our population ratios. It was said earlier that NH would be great for 40,000 activists. Well, with the flood of "refugees" from its neighbors (plus the home-grown native activists not counted here), I could see NH getting that 40,000 in eight years! Could it be that the immigration into NH could have provide incredible benefit to NH if it is the free state?!

I actually believe this immigration is a huge plus for NH.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: pond on July 05, 2003, 12:52:57 am
(is that an anamonapea? ;D).
I think it's alliteration, but your point is a good one. The ammount of immigration to New Hampshire shouldn't be considered at all, really, because it's uncertain. But if it is to be considered you have to think like a statist. They're lazy and enjoy being taken care of. You never hear of statists braving the frontier to bring their social safety nets to the borders of civilization. Why on earth would anyone be moving to New Hampshire if not to escape the stifling urbanization?
You also have to consider our final goals. If we're aiming to get in to a state, free it, and shut the door behind us I want no part of it. By the very nature of the project we're assuming that a free state will attract freedom loving people, so it would be contradictory to assume an already partially free state wouldn't attract similarly freedom loving people.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: jgmaynard on July 05, 2003, 10:22:18 am
A good concrete example of this is the fact that NH was the last state to actually ELECT a Libertarian state rep (Steve Vaillancourt in 2000). He was elected from Manchester - Not only the largest city in the state, but also, with Nashua, the center of the migration from Mass. If they're statists, why are they electing Libertarians? ???

JM
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: ZionCurtain on July 05, 2003, 10:31:49 am
(is that an anamonapea? ;D).
I think it's alliteration, but your point is a good one. The ammount of immigration to New Hampshire shouldn't be considered at all, really, because it's uncertain. But if it is to be considered you have to think like a statist. They're lazy and enjoy being taken care of. You never hear of statists braving the frontier to bring their social safety nets to the borders of civilization. Why on earth would anyone be moving to New Hampshire if not to escape the stifling urbanization?
You also have to consider our final goals. If we're aiming to get in to a state, free it, and shut the door behind us I want no part of it. By the very nature of the project we're assuming that a free state will attract freedom loving people, so it would be contradictory to assume an already partially free state wouldn't attract similarly freedom loving people.
So you move to a dinky state with over a million people to get away from urbanization? Terrible logic. Also where do the freedom lovers that we attrect move to when the place is full?
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: pond on July 05, 2003, 10:44:18 am
So you move to a dinky state with over a million people to get away from urbanization? Terrible logic. Also where do the freedom lovers that we attrect move to when the place is full?
Urbanization implies massive cities. Don't quite see where you miss the logic that a state where the largest city has a projected pop. of under 100,000 is appealing to people who dont want to live in a bleak concrete jungle.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: Zxcv on July 05, 2003, 11:09:30 am
Well, the concern about invasion of statists is not that unreasonable. There are other states that have suffered this fate, Colorado and Nevada being examples. Just read some of Vin Suprynowicz' stuff. It does happen under certain circumstances.

Whether it's happening or can happen in NH is another question.

Statists don't necessarily stay only in statist states (what a sentence). They don't like paying taxes more than anyone else, for example. They just want other people to pay taxes.

Normally, you'd expect invasion of statists to be happening when you have a healthy economy, while the statist economies nearby are suffering. That condition would attract economic refugees. Another example would be if you were a destination for retirees who might be ignorant of the consequences of statist policies.

Of course it is hard to guage the political tendencies of people who move to your state. So you never know - until years later when they've been voting in elections for a while.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: Reaper on July 05, 2003, 11:14:39 am
Last I heard the immigration to NH was 20k a year, obviously mostly statists since quite simply the majority of the overall population are so.

This would make the FSP irrelevant in NH.  They get 20k infused every year of mostly statists so a one time influx of 20k non statists would simple be a brief shrug to the system and then within a year we'll have an equal influx of statists and within 2 years twice as many.

Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: pond on July 05, 2003, 11:56:00 am
Last I heard the immigration to NH was 20k a year, obviously mostly statists since quite simply the majority of the overall population are so.
There's no basis for that assumption. Most people are lazy and when their activists are statists they admittedly work toward statist goals but one of the founding ideas of FSP is that inert populations are open to suggestion by a strong activist force for freedom. Again I ask you "do we expect to have a zero immigration rate change after our activities?" It's naive to think that there won't be massive influxes of people if we succeed in deregulating the economy of a state. Our free state, regardless of location, will have large hippie colonies moving in on the basis of our drug stance alone. We just have to assume that freedom will make sense and breed more freedom after the people get a taste of it, or else the FSP is doomed to be self suffocating anyway.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: Mickey on July 05, 2003, 07:31:06 pm
This would make the FSP irrelevant in NH.  They get 20k infused every year of mostly statists so a one time influx of 20k non statists would simple be a brief shrug to the system and then within a year we'll have an equal influx of statists and within 2 years twice as many.

That would assume that all twenty thousand of those people are political activists. That could only happen if there was another political migration project like our own and if such a thing were to exist, they would probably not go to NH. Certainly of those 20k migrants you're worried about, not more than a hundred or so are dedicated political activists. And along with those it seem logical to believe that an equal or greater amount would be liberty activists. It would take a very long time for statists to catch up to us without a 'Progressive State Project' targeting our same state(which would be a bad stratigic move on their part).
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: ZionCurtain on July 05, 2003, 10:14:45 pm
So you move to a dinky state with over a million people to get away from urbanization? Terrible logic. Also where do the freedom lovers that we attrect move to when the place is full?
Urbanization implies massive cities. Don't quite see where you miss the logic that a state where the largest city has a projected pop. of under 100,000 is appealing to people who dont want to live in a bleak concrete jungle.

I though the southern part of NH was a part of the Boston MSA. Which means it is a suburb.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: jgmaynard on July 05, 2003, 10:31:05 pm
I though the southern part of NH was a part of the Boston MSA. Which means it is a suburb.

Nope. Not even close. There's about a 45 min drive from even the OUTSKIRTS of the Boston MSA to the NH line. It's filled with trees, rivers, and ponds. It's the area where Emerson spent his time in the woods, you drive through the still small towns of Concord and Lexington, where the first revolution started. :) It is still a beautiful area. Of course, then you hit New Hampshire, and things become even more beautiful.

www.freestatenhlive.com has web cams from around the state. You can look for yourself.

Now, you can rest assured that not only is southern NH not a suburb of Boston, but even most of Mass isn't.

JM
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: jgmaynard on July 06, 2003, 09:56:20 pm
From http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/6224648.htm

"Politically, the proportion of independents among New Hampshire's 690,159 registered voters has increased, from 36.5 percent to 37.7 percent. Republican strength has held steady at 36.7 percent but the number of Democrats has dropped, from 27 percent to 25.6 percent. Independents can vote in the primary."

For those who prefer Republicans OR Independents (as I do) this is a great sign for New Hampshire as our state of choice. This is over two years, and shows there is NO statist migration, but a migration of independent minded folks, freed from the chains of the political duopoly.

JM

Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: schletty on July 14, 2003, 02:23:37 pm
We have a tendency to speak of an influx of people in stark terms: "freedom-loving or "not freedom-loving." My concern is that what I see in the population is much more hypocritical, usually loving and clinging to their own individual favorite freedoms while looking with suspicion on the freedoms of people unlike themselves.

One of my biggest (although not paralyzing) fears with the project (not just in NH) is that we willl attract large numbers of those who come seeking to enjoy their own freedom at the expense of another. Couldn't their numbers and resistance to others' freedoms make a larger libertarian agenda moot? Even if they are not all activists, it seems as though it could take only a couple of years for such a blurring to occur. Hopefully, the larger message gets out before that dynamic occurs.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: jgmaynard on July 14, 2003, 03:24:43 pm
Sorry, schletty.... I'm not quite catching what you are saying.... Could you provide an example of a theoretical situation, please? For instance, are you saying that the free state might be invaded my people who come for the lax cannabis laws, but want high taxes for governmental handouts?

JM
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: JonM on July 14, 2003, 03:28:14 pm
Sorry, schletty.... I'm not quite catching what you are saying.... Could you provide an example of a theoretical situation, please? For instance, are you saying that the free state might be invaded my people who come for the lax cannabis laws, but want high taxes for governmental handouts?

JM
I could see that argument, but then, you're assuming they'd actually remember when to show up and vote.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: robmayn on July 14, 2003, 04:06:23 pm
Up until the aftermath of the last election, I was of the opinion that New Hampshire had finally started down the
migration induced path towards statism that Vermont has already traveled.  New Hampshire seemed like a beacon of freedom to us Vermonters fighting the tide of socialism here.  Then from 1997-2002, Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, was governor. She created lots of new programs to catch New Hampshire up in spending for liberal causes.  The result being that New Hampshire had the largest percent spending increase for those years than any other state.  http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-06-23-state-budgets-usat_x.htm  Of course, they were starting from a lower base of spending and still rank at the lowest end in terms state spending.

It now seems that New Hampshire is is the process of rejecting the Shaheen legacy, which has persuaded me that 1997-2002 were not normal years.  This, plus my experience of seeing some of Vermont's best liberty activists migrate to New Hampshire, has convinced me that the bulk of New Hampshire migration is not statist.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: schletty on July 14, 2003, 08:01:02 pm
Quote
Sorry, schletty.... I'm not quite catching what you are saying.... Could you provide an example of a theoretical situation, please? For instance, are you saying that the free state might be invaded my people who come for the lax cannabis laws, but want high taxes for governmental handouts?

You're on the right track. I was thinking in terms of the lax drug laws and state-funded treatment and healthy usage programs. I had considered JonM's point, but it might be a bit of a stereotype to assume that pro-cannabis people would be too burnt to vote, etc.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: schletty on July 14, 2003, 08:11:15 pm
Quote
I could see that argument, but then, you're assuming they'd actually remember when to show up and vote.

BTW, this is only one theoretical scenario. The lines tend to fall along the left-leaning/right-leaning debate. You might also find social cons who favor economic freedoms while curbing freedoms of association where it suits them. I would have trouble imagining too many of these pouring in from MA though. ;)
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: JonM on July 15, 2003, 12:20:36 pm
To understand whether the people moving to New Hampshire are statists or not, one must have an idea on who the statists in Massachusetts are.

Initiative petitions (ballot questions, which are not always initiative petitions, some times the legislature will throw one on there) have shown a varying degree of non statist sentiment from the entire population of Massachusetts.  In 1998 59% of the population voted to reduce the state income tax from 5.85% to 5% (the value it had been before the late 80s fiscal meltdown).  Several times ballot questions to introduce a graduated income tax have failed.

For a legislative constitutional amendment to be adopted a majority of ballots cast must be yes.  For an initiative petition to pass 30% of the voters must cast yes ballots, and the yes ballots must outnumber the no ballots.  So 32% yes, 25% no, 45% blank would pass an initiative petition.

The first was a Legislative constitutional amendment in 1962.  It failed with 277,611 yes, and 1,395,996 no, with 470,444 blank ballots.  That's 13% yes, 65% no, 22% didn't care.  Or

In 1968 they came back again, this time 543,772 voted yes, 1,290,303 voted no, and  513,930 left it blank.  23% to 55% to 19%.

In 1976 they went back to the well.  645,483 yes, 1,787,302 no, and 211,477 couldn't decide.  24% to 68% to only 8%.

In 1980 Prop 2/1 (ballot question 2) to limit property tax increases to 2.5% a year was passed 1,438,768 yes, to 988,839 no, with 129,060 blank.  56% to 40% to 5%.  This came in after the huge inflation in the 70s was causing property tax to go up something on the order of 17% or even more a year.

Come 1994, this time it's not a legislative amendment, it's an initiative petition for a constitutional amendment (The statists couldn't get the legislature to stick it on, so they collected signatures of the other statists).  It went down 630,694 yes to 1,442,404 no, with 159,108 blank.  Or 28% to 65% to 7%.

In 1998, among other things, an initiative petition to reduce the tax on interest and dividends from the then 12% to be the same as the tax rate on normal income passed 1,395,599 yes to 309,416 no with 230,262 blank.  Or 72% yes, 16% no, 12% didn't care.  Short term capital gains remained taxed at 12%.

In 2002 an initiative petition led by the libertarian candidate for governor to eliminate the income tax entirely went down 885,683 yes to 1,070,668 no with 263,950 blanks.  39.89% yes, 48.22% no, 11.89% blank.

The best measure of statism, at least in my opinion, is who is willing to vote for a tax INCREASE.  Not voting for a decrease is merely someone happy with the status quo, and not necessarily a statist sentiment.  Back in 1962 only a mere 13% of the voters were expressing a very statist sentiment.

By 1994 it had climbed to 28%.  Who are these 28%?  Some are bleeding heart modern liberals, to be sure.  I'm sure among them are the 1,433 who have elected to pay taxes at the 5.85% rate for the 2002 filing year.  Others have no real job, they rely on state handouts, and since they're not paying in, the more the rest of us pay in, the more the state can hand out to them.  Then there are those making so little the graduated income tax would not effect them, and they believe in sticking it to the rich guy, because surely they're not paying enough.  These people generally don't anticipate doing well enough to bump themselves into the next tax bracket.  They may also be relying on state assistance.  The safety hammock isn't as comfortable in New Hampshire, they're not effected by the Massachusetts income tax, and if they live near the New Hampshire border they can shop there without having to move there.  They have little incentive to move to New Hampshire.

The last main group, and the most powerful segment of the gimmie lobby are the state workers, unions, and their families.  The represent a huge block of voters on the state and local level.  Politicians fear them, because if you do something against the police department, not only will every member of the police department and their extended families block vote against that politician, but all the fellow unions will join in for support, and their extended families, and the state workers and their families will most likely help out too.  In some towns in Massachusetts this can be nearly 50% if not over of the vote right there.

The good thing about this horrible situation for Massachusetts is that these people aren't tremendously mobile.  To keep their power to maintain and improve their retirement packages they have to be Massachusetts voters.  Which means they can't move to New Hampshire and expect to wield the same influence.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: schletty on July 15, 2003, 10:49:19 pm
Quote
The good thing about this horrible situation for Massachusetts is that these people aren't tremendously mobile.  To keep their power to maintain and improve their retirement packages they have to be Massachusetts voters.  Which means they can't move to New Hampshire and expect to wield the same influence.

You raise a good point: why would a group that would be most likely to try to wield political influence be likely to leave a place where they have already established their own little socialist paradise?

In light of my previous point, though, couldn't we conceivably find tax-haters immgrating (and at an apparently decent rate) to NH who have no problem with other statist policies?
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: JonM on July 15, 2003, 11:07:41 pm
Quote
The good thing about this horrible situation for Massachusetts is that these people aren't tremendously mobile.  To keep their power to maintain and improve their retirement packages they have to be Massachusetts voters.  Which means they can't move to New Hampshire and expect to wield the same influence.

You raise a good point: why would a group that would be most likely to try to wield political influence be likely to leave a place where they have already established their own little socialist paradise?

In light of my previous point, though, couldn't we conceivably find tax-haters immgrating (and at an apparently decent rate) to NH who have no problem with other statist policies?

It's possible, as a NH resident mentioned in another thread.  But having no problem with and willing to defend are a bit far apart.  Eventually statist type things, such as full time police, trash collection, etc. that he brought up will be decided on a town by town basis.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: schletty on July 15, 2003, 11:18:36 pm
Who knows? They might be eager to defend their niche statism once they realize what a bunch of whackos we are  ;)

BTW, I meant to mention before: nice research.  :)
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: Mickey on July 15, 2003, 11:39:59 pm
In light of my previous point, though, couldn't we conceivably find tax-haters immgrating (and at an apparently decent rate) to NH who have no problem with other statist policies?

Hating taxes is an excelent first step toward libertarianism. If we can't convince some one who hates taxes that reducing the size of the government is good, we must be sorry activists!
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: schletty on July 16, 2003, 12:01:36 am
This alludes to my earlier point about statist hypocrisy. While I will try to make my appeal to anyone who hates taxes (which, I agree, is a good start), I also realize that such a one may not hate taxes as much as he hates his taxes (i.e. He hates that he can't have as much stuff, but he isn't philosophically opposed to what they represent).

Quote
If we can't convince some one who hates taxes that reducing the size of the government is good, we must be sorry activists!

Only time will tell  ;)
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: JonM on July 16, 2003, 12:28:57 am
This alludes to my earlier point about statist hypocrisy. While I will try to make my appeal to anyone who hates taxes (which, I agree, is a good start), I also realize that such a one may not hate taxes as much as he hates his taxes (i.e. He hates that he can't have as much stuff, but he isn't philosophically opposed to what they represent).

Quote
If we can't convince some one who hates taxes that reducing the size of the government is good, we must be sorry activists!

Only time will tell  ;)

What they represent is society's compassion.  Those people need to be reminded society's compassion does not have to be provided by the government.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: schletty on July 16, 2003, 12:40:24 am
Quote
What they represent is society's compassion.  Those people need to be reminded society's compassion does not have to be provided by the government.

Either compassion or guilt. If the former, you are right in stating that the FS can demonstrate that true compassion must have freedom as its basis (would that we will). This point touches on other threads, I'm sure, but we need to beware the FSP-as-the-big-party mentality.

If the latter, let us (gently) expose it as such.
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: Dave Mincin on July 21, 2003, 03:06:14 pm
Perhaps a good time for a story about one of those invaders from MA that I met while in NH. :)

Tony, Doug, and I were in front of the little coffee shop at the camp grounds wondering how we were going to deal with the growling in our bellies, since the shop was closed.

Tim came by and invited us to head into Lancaster for lunch.  Chinese-American Restaurent, go figure. ::)

Anyway we were seated in the smoking section :), in the front of the restaurent, rather isolated from the rest.  Anyway Al heard our conversation about freedom and NH, and he came to the area were we were setting.  He showed us some information that he had on the group he was leading that was fighting to reduce the school taxes.  

Within minutes Al had brought his meal back to our area and joined us.  A little background on Al, he had been a Bird Cornell in the Air Force, a pilot for TWA, and a high school teacher.  He proceed to tell us that back in the 80's he and his wife had been researching the various states to decide were they would move.  Freedom was one of there main concerns. (sound framiliar?)  Anyway they chose NH.  Al spend the rest of the time telling us how great NH was and how welcome we would be.  As we were
leaving I invited Al to stop by the campsite, but he declined, because he had a political meeting to attend.

Couple days later, early evening as we were setting around the campsite, along came Al :)  We all listened intently as Al told us of all the virtues of NH, wish I could remember them all, but I can tell you we were all listening!
One thing I did remember Al saying was that NH has no state agency to enforce federal mandates, hmm like the sound of that! :)

Granted Al was just one person, but I can't help but think many of those people that so many seem to fear are just like Al. ;D
Title: Re:Is NH being invaded by statists?
Post by: Stumpy on July 21, 2003, 03:21:08 pm
Al spend the rest of the time telling us how great NH was and how welcome we would be.  

Yes Dave, it was great meeting and speaking with Al.

He is one of about 30 that I spoke to in New Hampshire. I described the FSP and asked how they would feel if 20,000 libertarian activists moving to their state to get involved in politics.

All said that the FSP would be welcome in NH.  ;D