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FSP -- General Discussion => The Friendly Forum => Topic started by: Luck on January 21, 2009, 09:53:14 pm

Title: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Luck on January 21, 2009, 09:53:14 pm
* The article here http://www.gata.org/node/7095 (http://www.gata.org/node/7095) has thorough commentary on a recently found 1961 Federal Reserve banker's memo.
* It shows [what I thought was] a scheme for the Fed to manipulate markets and turn the dollar into fiat currency, instead of gold-backed. Like the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports, CAFRs, the scheme involves hiding financial transactions from public scrutiny.
* If anyone understands the implications of this memo better than I, I'd like to hear comments. My really really strong suspicion is that these schemes mainly result in real wealth, or assets, being transferred from the public to the ruling class. If anyone can explain that process clearly, that would be enjoyable to hear.
Title: Not a Scheme?
Post by: Luck on January 22, 2009, 10:04:19 am
* I got this reply from another forum member. He doesn't suspect a scheme, but I'm not convinced yet. LK
LB wrote:
* I was a bond trader at one time and that's the only place where the Fed interacts with the markets. I skimmed the article and this is what I got out of it. At one time gold backed the dollar. When it was backed by gold ... the dollar had a certain worth and never fluxuated. You took an ounce of gold down to the bank and they gave you so many dollars for it. The reverse is true and this is important. You take your dollars down and they give you gold. That creates problems. If the economy grows and profits go up then money is created and then somebody has to go get more gold for the money in circulation etc. etc. ... What happens if everybody goes down to the bank and demands gold? The government made a decison to back the dollar with the good faith of this nation. When they decided to do that this guy knew that the dollar would begin fluxuating. This was uncharted waters and he saw the problems that it would cause. He was laying out plans on how to deal with it. Nothing I read raised any suspicions with me.
* A couple of notes before I proceed. The Fed is secretive and not secretive at the same time. They don't tell us what they are doing at the immediate moment because they do not want to move any of the markets. The fat cat insiders on Wall Street would jump in before anybody else and this would be a form of insider trading. For instance, they do not want to appear that they are moving the stock market in a direction. So they are secretive. On the other hand they do release the minutes of their meetings and let everyone know what they discussed but there is a month lag time. So they aren't so secretive. ... Those that are astute with the bond market ... will have a pretty good idea of what the Fed is doing. They use the bond market as a vehicle to put money into the system and also to take ... money out. These transactions ususally take place at noon if they are to do them. If you see the interaction you can surmize what the Fed is doing. If after 3 days they inject funds then the Fed 's letting us know they are loosening. This is all public information.
* Why does the Fed interact? Here's some examples.
* They try to keep inflation within a reasonable target. Too many dollars chasing too few goods creates inflation. Prices go up with inflation. So what they will do is try and keep the money supply within a target. If it gets over the target they will come in for instance and sell treasury bills to banks and finacial institutions. These institutions have no alternative, they have to buy the bills. The banks then pay the Fed for the bills so what happens? The banks have less money, hence there's less money in circulation. Less dollars, less inflation. If inflation is persistant then they will keep doing this until the economy cools and recesses. The opposite is true. When we get into deflation, or falling prices, or we get into a recession then the Fed will buy bills from the banks and inject liquidity into the system. That's one reason they do it.
* Another reason they do it is because there are times during the year when there is a natural tightening of the money supply. We're coming up on one. The banks hold all the money for taxes. On April 15 the money gets sent to the treasury as tax payments. The banks have less money now and also money is taken out of circulation. You don't want to go to the bank to cash your paycheck and find out the bank doesn't have any money. So the Fed injects money into the system. Same thing with farmers. While they're planting money is drained from the banks and when they harvest the banks get flooded with money. The Fed trys to make this as painless as possible.
* If the dollar gets too weak or too strong it has an impact on imports and exports. If the dollar gets too weak then they will reduce the dollars in circulation therefore reducing the money supply. Because they force the banks to buy more bills and bonds then the interest rates go up. Because of this the dollar gets stronger, ie the less there are the more expensive they are, like anything else.
* Where this [Fed] guy in the article was having problems was he saw it wasn't all that cut and dried and that it was going to get complex and weird. I'll give you an example. Say the dollar gets too cheap and the Fed wants to support it or make it stronger. To do this they have to tighten up the money supply. But what if at the same time the interest rates are too high and is causing a recession in the economy. To do that they have to loosen up the money. One calls for loosening and the other calls for tightening at the same time. Now what do you do? That's the kinds of problems that the Fed has all the time. It's not an easy job.
* The biggest enemy the Fed has are politicians. Congress controls the spending and when they spend too much they create too much debt and then that really complicates things for the Fed. I don't know if you got my recent piece on why the economic system has a very, very real chance to collapse, possibly taking the government down with it. I'll cut and paste it here.
LB http://reenactmentof1776. com
Title: The Govt Is Going To Collaspe
Post by: Luck on January 22, 2009, 10:15:21 am
* This is the article LB was referring to.

No Revolution Needed, The Economy Is Going To Collaspe, Taking The Government With It

* "All the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't put (America) together again."

* America has fallen from its lofty perch. It lies in pieces scattered across the country's landscape, the victim of greed. In 2006 I launched the Reenactment of 1776. In my first mailing I said that what was coming was "people will be losing their homes in unprecedented numbers, banks will be going under, unemployment will skyrocket, and that we would go into a depression like this country has never experienced." It was a unique position to take at that time because the economy was humming along and no one in the government or Wall Street even mentioned a scenario like this. Now it is 2009 and everything has come true. A basic knowledge of economics 101 was all that was needed to predict this catastrophe. My new forecast calls for the collapse of the government. Recently, I put out an idea for the people to create a bank with which we could ... fight the tyranny and corruption that got this country where it is today, on the brink of collapse. This is no longer feasible because we cannot create the bank quick enough to accomplish this goal. Even if it were possible, the ensuing collapse of the financial system and the government will ruin the people whether they have this bank or not. Here is why there is a high probability that the collapse is going to happen.

* 1. The government finances its debt by selling treasury bills, notes and bonds. In its simplest terms either people or institutions give their money to the government. In return the government gives an investor a bill, note or bond. These instruments are basically IOU's with varying lengths of maturity. These range from 30 days to 30 years. When these instruments mature the government is responsible to pay off the IOU.

* 2. Historically, the biggest investors in these financial instruments have been financial institutions and central banks of other governments. These institutions are banks, insurance companies and pension funds. The government is now lending money to banks and insurance companies. Therefore, the government cannot be loaned money from the banks or insurance companies. The pension funds are crippled by their investments and have no money to lend to the government. As this is a world wide depression, foreign countries are in the same situation as our government. They cannot lend our government any money.

* 3. The government is experiencing a reduction in income because people are not working and are not paying taxes. Instead people are collecting social security, unemployment and welfare, accounting for a negative cash flow for the government. More is going out then is coming in. As the depression worsens so does the negative cash flow. On top of that we're in a war which is consuming more government money. On top of that there will be between $750 billion to $1 trillion of debt created by the initial bail out, maybe more. Obama has proposed to create another $800 billion of debt under the auspices that it is an economic stimulus package. When the corrupt lawmakers get finished with it the number will be probably around $trillion. As is the same for individuals, as long as the debt expense to income is kept at a fiscally responsible percentage then the debt is managed properly and poses no problem. However, when the percentage of
* debt expense gets too big in relation to income then a point is reached where the debt cannot be paid back. The government's debt is now too large in relation to the gross domestic product. Like what happened to everyone that has defaulted on their mortgages the government has so much debt that it has reached the point of no return.

* 4. What the government did for years was borrow money and then when the IOU's matured they borrowed more to pay those off. This was basically a Ponzi scheme. In addition to that scheme the corrupt politicians looted social security and other funds that held cash leaving an IOU behind. There is no more money to loot.

* 5. When these bonds mature the government has to pay them off. If they cannot pay them off then they will default. The United States government has never defaulted on its bonds. If you and I default on our debt then that means we're bankrupt, kaput, out of business. Same with the government. If the government defaults then no one will loan it any more money. These bonds mature every quarter, March, June, September and December. The fall of our government will probably come during one of these months within the next year to year and a half.

* 6. If the government cannot borrow then they have one alternative. That is to just print the money to pay off the IOU's. It is called monetarizing the debt. They will have to print so much money that the worth of a dollar will be reduced to nothing. Too much money chasing too few goods creates inflation, which will in all likelihood result in a hyperinflation not seen since the pre-World War II days in Germany. In this scenario the dollar will become like the Confederate currency of old or the German mark prior to Hitler. In Germany they had to get a wheel barrow and fill it with money just to go to the store for a loaf of bread. Those that forget the past are doomed to repeat it. A loaf of bread could easily go to $50 or higher. For people on fixed incomes the burden will be insurmountable, because their income will not go up; it is fixed. For people on retirement, social security, unemployment and welfare, clearly one fourth of their income would go for one loaf of bread. The people will not be able to eat or purchase staples that they need.

* 7. If hyperinflation hits, the worth of the bonds will plummet. Individuals, institutions and investors and foreign governments will either sell every bond they have or risk losing everything invested. The ones who will have to buy those bonds are banks, insurance companies and pension funds. As stated above, they are broke and cannot buy the bonds. The government bond market will fall apart, only this time the government will not be able to bail it out. This will be equivalent to a run on a bank, only this will be a run on our entire financial system.

* 8. Because local and county governments don't have borrowing power they will be the first to fold. Individual states and then the Federal government will follow into default. If the police aren't getting paid they won't be on the streets. Minus law and order, chaos, rioting, looting and other forms of lawlessness will take place. It will get ugly.

* 9. The only positive thing or silver lining is that those corrupt politicians and lawyers that have stolen all our money from us will find that their money is also worthless.

[Money may become worthless, but real assets won't be worthless. Aren't the wealthy buying up real assets, like land & improvements? LK]

* 10. Obama's plan is a political plan, not an economic plan. It will be counterproductive to the economy and actually accelerate the problems.

* 11. If we were to create the bank then all of our assets would be dollar denominated. Because of that the bank would get wiped out along with all of the investors. The plan was a good one but it was based on the [assumption] that the government would continue as a going concern. The level of debt and the level of corruption have proved to be too much for the system to handle. It will collapse - totally!

* 12. This forecast is from the same guy with the same economics background that forecast this depression [i.e. LB]. These forecasts are not doomsday forecasts; they are based on basic economics 101.

* 13. If you have any doubt about this forecast I will ask you one question. Why are the Secretary of Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve working with members of the government planning military actions within this country and why are they making plans to enact Martial Law? It's simple, they used economics 101 also. Their conclusion has to be the same as mine.

* Everyone who has shown interest in the bank has the same thought at heart. They want to save the country because it has been going in the wrong direction. The hardest part of revolution is taking over the government. With no action on our part the government is going to collapse for us. It will create an opportunity for us. Or it will create our worst nightmare. Luck is when planning meets opportunity. If the people are ready they will be able to seize the moment. If anybody has any ideas on how to make this situation work for us then please contact me with your suggestions. As for me, I'm considering arming myself for the first time in my life.

* LB, founder of Reenactment of 1776
Title: Sharks & Tax Retirement Fund
Post by: Luck on January 22, 2009, 10:40:44 am
* Yesterday I asked Walter Burien at http://CAFR1.com (http://CAFR1.com) to explain mass trading that his site discusses and I think his reply is informative, so I'll post it.

* LK: Do all of the gov't [pension fund investments] move at the same time as a single unit?
* Who exactly decides how to invest these funds? Do all city, state and national gov't fund managers have the same broker?  If they don't have the same broker, how can they all move the same way all the time?
* One would think that each city, state etc has its own broker and that each would invest independently from each other.

* WB: It is the "Biggest Kid" on the block syndrome in a down-line advisory chain, tied together by associations and in-common consultation/advisory services, or: the of-no-equal, loosely-tied, biggest monopoly on the earth. [I gather that he means that the in-common advisory services result in all of the gov't funds being invested in the same way. LK]
* Think of the large government market-maker accounts being a school of sharks (Big and little sharks) schooling together with the same objective: "Grouping as many minnows and game fish [as possible] into one circle so that the feast can commence" at one end of the pond (up) or the other (down). Sometimes that feast may include inadvertently some smaller sharks being bit in the onslaught of the feeding frenzies. But, being sharks the small fledgling sharks will stay with the pack due to the overall advantages gained.
* Keep in mind this is nothing new. For millenniums government bodies have controlled and monopolized trade to "their" advantage. What changes back and forth over time is the diet and intensity of feeding seen from the sharks.  A rule of thumb here is: The bigger the sharks and quantity of the sharks, the more they eat, diminishing all of the rest of the food in the food chain.
* Over and over again throughout history, the shark packs based on their own gluttony, when they get to a point of depleting the food chain, where their own substance intake results in diminishing the pack in numbers (a very dangerous time for society). Big sharks now start to feed on little sharks being that they ate to many of the minnows and other game fish. This will continue until balance is restored and then the minnows and game fish increase in numbers and then the cycle repeats itself again. In human terms, the cycle repeats every couple of centuries, and the smaller waves about every forty to sixty years.
* The only class of game fish as a species that is somewhat immune to being eaten by the sharks in most part throughout these cycles are the ones that are colorfully marked to be poisonous to the shark or as the sucker fish will do, ride the back of the shark to feed on the scraps as the sharks feed.
* I will note to you that the TRFA - http://TaxRetirement.com (http://TaxRetirement.com) as an end result creates a stable and sustainable feeding grounds for feeding all of the fish of the sea equally, voiding out by application the cycle above.

Walter Burien, P. O. Box 2112, Saint Johns, Arizona 85936
http://CAFR1.com
Tel. (928) 445-3532

* Today I asked Walter the following.
* You said: It is the "Biggest Kid" on the block syndrome in a down-line advisory chain, tied together by associations and in-common
consultation/advisory services, or: the of-no-equal, loosely-tied, biggest monopoly on the earth.
* I take it then that using the same financial advisory services is what results in gov't investments all making the same moves. Is that what you meant?
* The question then is who are the financial advisory services? And why do all of the city, state and national gov'ts use the same advisors?
* I thought your use of the shark analogy helps explain the economy, but I'm wondering if it leaves out something. It seems to me that the biggest sharks would know how to set aside nest eggs to tide them over in times of scarcity. Isn't that true? Don't the wealthy buy up real assets, like land and improvements and employ security personnel to protect them, while everyone else starves in hard times?

* Walter replied.
* "The question then is who are the financial advisory services?" Government fund managers subscribe to several market timing newsletters. The big ones put out their own. To track down a few, do a key word Google search, as an example - http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=1&ct=result&cd=1&q=government+%22market+timing+newsletter%22&spell=1 (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=1&ct=result&cd=1&q=government+%22market+timing+newsletter%22&spell=1)
* Associations are many. A few examples are: GFOA, GASB, Association Of Governors, Mayors, Government Fund Managers, etc....  of which will direct local governments to specific advisory teams.
* All of the fund managers have an open line to each other 24/7 and use it as they independently work out strategy for current and future profits and or elimination of outside competition. (those outside the inner circle are clipped)
* "... while everyone else starves in hard times" makes it easy for the ruthless or opportunist[ic] to buy it all at pennies on the dollar.
Title: Ways to Prevent Collaspe?
Post by: Luck on January 22, 2009, 12:37:03 pm
* Here's my reply to LB.
* Hi LB.
* Your explanation of how the gov't may collapse is very helpful. I have some more questions.
* Here are excerpts from your article that I'll refer to.
--------------------------

* No Revolution Needed, The Economy Is Going To Collaspe Taking The Government With It
In 2006 I launched the Reenactment of 1776. In my first mailing I said that what was coming was "people will be losing their homes in unprecedented numbers, banks will be going under, unemployment will skyrocket, and that we would go into a depression like this country has never experienced." It was a unique position to take at that time because the economy was humming along and no one in the government or Wall Street even mentioned a scenario like this. Now it is 2009 and everything has come true. A basic knowledge of economics 101 was all that was needed to predict this catastrophe. My new forecast calls for the collapse of the government.

>>>[- LK: Do you ever read http://larouchepub.com (http://larouchepub.com)? They have predicted the economic collapse for a long time.]

* 1. The government finances its debt by selling treasury bills, notes and bonds.
* 2. the government cannot be loaned money from the banks or insurance companies.
* 3. The government is experiencing a reduction in income because people are not working and are not paying taxes. Instead people are collecting social security, unemployment and welfare, accounting for a negative cash flow for the government.

>>>[- LK: Walter Burien at http://cafr1.com (http://cafr1.com) says the gov't semi-secretly collects about twice as much from investments as it does from taxes. He has a plan to have all local, state and national gov'ts to be converted to operating solely on investments and discontinuing most taxation. He says their investments always make profit, because they're the biggest investors in the markets and they act as a unit.]

* 5. When bonds mature the government has to pay them off. If they cannot pay them off then they will default. If the government defaults then no one will loan it any more money. bonds mature every quarter, March, June, September and December. The fall of our government will probably come during one of these months within the next year to year and a half.
* 6. If the government cannot borrow then they have one alternative ... to just print the money, ... which will in all likelihood result in a hyperinflation not seen since the pre-World War II days in Germany. The people will not be able to eat or purchase staples that they need.

>>>[- LK: LaRouche people say there's a better alternative: to create credit by selling bonds. They and Walter Burien also say that money should be backed by a market basket of commodities, rather than just gold or silver.]

* 7. If hyperinflation hits, the worth of the bonds will plummet. The ones who will have to buy those bonds are banks, insurance companies and pension funds. As stated above, they are broke and cannot buy the bonds. The government bond market will fall apart
* 8. Because local and county governments don't have borrowing power they will be the first to fold. If the police aren't getting paid they won't be on the streets. Minus law and order, chaos, rioting, looting and other forms of lawlessness will take place. I'm considering arming myself for the first time in my life.
* 13. If you have any doubt about this forecast I will ask you one question. Why are the Secretary of Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve working with members of the government planning military actions within this country and why are they making plans to enact Martial Law?

-------------------------

* What do you think of LaRouche people's ideas below and Walter Burien's at http://TaxRetirement.com (http://TaxRetirement.com)?

http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2008/2008_20-29/2008-25/pdf/14-15_3525.pdf (http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2008/2008_20-29/2008-25/pdf/14-15_3525.pdf)
* Two Tiers
* [Quoting the Fed?] “Our first and most immediate priority remains to help the economy and the financial system get through this crisis,” Geithner said.
* The problem with that approach is that saving the economy requires putting the financial system down, and taking the money we are currently throwing down the bailout rathole and spending it on rebuilding the nation’s productivity. Remove the parasite first, then heal the host.
To do this will require a huge dose of low-interest-rate government credit to fund large-scale development projects like nuclear power plants, high-speed maglev trains, water projects like NAWAPA (North American Water and Power Alliance), in addition to rebuilding our roads and bridges, water and sewer systems, schools, and such. We must also launch, as a top national priority, the development of nuclear fusion as a power source, and the development of technologies to allow us to use hydrogen as a fuel. This must be done on an emergency basis, both to rebuild our standard of living and reduce our dependence upon the oligarchic raw materials cartels, beginning with oil. We can, and must, think our way out of this crisis.
* What is needed, as LaRouche has said, is a two-tiered credit system, in which credit is made available for such projects at very low interest rates — one to two percent — while charging higher rates for other purposes. Money, even in large quantities, issued for these productive projects is not inflationary, since the increases in productivity, and resultant economic growth these projects would generate, would cover the costs many times over.
[ http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3405_mexican_const.html (http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3405_mexican_const.html) - Productive credit issued by a national bank is not inflationary, since it is backed by investment in long-term projects which will pay for themselves through the jobs created, and not merely in payment of unproductive debts or phantom investments (such as financial speculation) which don't return anything to society.]
* Our Only Hope
LaRouche’s three-point plan is our only hope at this late hour. That plan begins with the passage of the Homeowners and Bank Protection Act (HBPA) to put up firewalls to protect the citizenry, while the financial system is put through bankruptcy, which is a prerequisite for point two — the introduction of the two-tiered credit system. Then, having corrected our own mistakes, we can begin working with other nations — Russia, China, India, and others — to rebuild the world under American System principles, as we did in the beginning, and again, in the post-Civil War era. We must abandon the British imperial methods we have adopted in recent decades, and return to the most powerful economic system the world has ever seen: the American System. The great irony here, is that the attempt to save the current, Anglo-Dutch Liberal system, to preserve the fictitious riches some among us have amassed, is what dooms us, while letting the fiction go and returning to the American System would open the door to prosperity for all. Faced with more heads than hats, the oligarchs choose to lop off heads, but it were far more humane and productive that we simply make more hats. We should be considerably more concerned about the fate of humanity, the fate of our children, and the children of the world, than we are about the fate of a few rapacious banks and cartels, and the preservation of oligarchic power. It is time to let the illusions go, roll up our sleeves, and get to work.
Title: Re: Bankers' Scheme? or Govt Is Going To Collaspe
Post by: Porcupine The Godful Heathen on January 29, 2009, 12:31:54 pm
I thought this thread was going to be for sharks fans. :(
Title: Another October Surprise Coming
Post by: Luck on July 30, 2009, 10:13:43 pm
* Another October Surprise Coming
http://larouchepub.com/pr/2009/090727oct_surprise.html
Debt is being piled up, while payments are postponed, with the case of California providing a good example of the problem. The crisis will explode in mid-October, because that's when the figures will be exposed. The danger then is that panic will break out, because "every state, every political faction, is going to try to cover at each other's expense. When that panic breaks out, the system goes down."

LaRouche also exposed the Obama Administration's intention to go for an "October Surprise," hoping they would get the health-care policy through. "And then... by getting these two things through, to put in dictatorial measures, like Hitler's... in the October crisis." LaRouche warned against the attempt to start riots in the streets and use troops to set up a dictatorship under conditions of panic and chaos.

That leaves two months' time to organize a policy shift....

* Besides that, there's also possible forced vaccinations and a major FEMA exercise in late Sept., I think.
Title: Re: Govt Going To Collaspe - Another October Surprise Coming
Post by: Luck on July 31, 2009, 08:17:12 pm
Here's a better quote. It refers to a crisis in the federal government, rather than merely the states, that will result in the crash.
http://larouchepac.com/node/11140
"Now, just to make it clear: As of now, the fiscal year of the United States comes to an end at the beginning of October. Which means that between the 12th and the 15th of October, which is the ten-day-plus allowance for monkeying around, the entire U.S., as of now, is going to shut down! Because, for example, one-third of the actual unemployed are actually receiving compensation. Those who are receiving it, are receiving it, two to three weeks late in starting. The conditions for unemployment insurance are vanishing. The whole economy is collapsing. We're in a breakdown crisis, where we have to assume by the 10th or 15th October, that the world is going to shut down. Nations are going to cease functioning, at least many of them. One of the nations, which, presently, is about to cease functioning, in about 60 days from now, or near 60 days from now, is going to be the United States, in every part. We have 48 states, that are not even nominally functioning, as governments. We have an insane President. We have lunacy...
Title: Re: Govt Going To Collaspe - Another October Surprise Coming
Post by: sonio on July 31, 2009, 10:20:54 pm
Quote
* Besides that, there's also possible forced vaccinations and a major FEMA exercise in late Sept., I think.

My mother is freaking out about this.  Some woman (Jane Burgermeirster) is making a racket that the company, Baxter, the WHO and some others (Our Dear Leader in included) have this massive plan to mass murder US citizens through botched vaccines.  Actually she is pressing charges against them in Switzerland, I want to say...

Some huge conspiracy plan, that yes, is supposed to start in Sept.
Title: Re: Govt Going To Collaspe - Another October Surprise Coming
Post by: Luck on August 01, 2009, 09:27:24 am
Quote
My mother is freaking out about this.
I'd say, tell her to try to let go of panic, since panic won't help. Just try to prepare. MMS may be able to neutralize all or most of the toxins in any vaccine. I have info on sources of MMS etc at http://sc2p.webs.com (http://sc2p.webs.com). Chlorella helps remove toxic metals from the body. The best source may be http://www.pacificbotanicals.com (http://www.pacificbotanicals.com). You can also get lots of info at http://curezone.com (http://curezone.com) and http://mercola.com (http://mercola.com).

I'm working on plans to help Oathkeepers by asking cops, military people & other public servants if they will join Oathkeepers and promise not to obey unlawful orders, such as imprisoning anyone without truthful charges of committing a felony.

It also seems best to move out of cities, where rioting may occur, which would give the nazis an excuse to impose martial law. Survival and evasion should be easier in rural areas, but it's probably best to organize with neighbors.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15
Post by: Luck on August 03, 2009, 05:28:11 pm
ALERT - AUGUST 3RD 2009: Be on High Ground Warning - Aug 14 & 15th

Monday, August 3, 2009 4:03 PM
From: "CAFR1 National" <WalterBurien@CAFR1.com>
CAFR1 NATIONAL POST
 
Keep your eyes open, cash and supplies in hand, and be on high ground come Saturday Aug 15th 2009

Extreme price movements may happen after / around the 15th:

(Natural national emergency could trigger occurrence)

WJB - CAFR1

PS: Per Markets

METALS - UP - Silver from $13 maybe to $18

INTEREST RATES - UP -  (30 Year Bonds down from 119  range  to 110 or 109)

DOLLAR - ??? Maybe 73 to 75

DOW - DOWN - Maybe to 7100 to 7300

CRUDE OIL - UP - Maybe from 71 to $85

LUMBER - UP - Maybe from $200 to $250 - $270 (based on futures contract)

COTTON - UP - Maybe from 69 to 80
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Denis Goddard on August 03, 2009, 06:13:37 pm
Dollar crash - yes
This October - too early, IMO. I predict that in the Oct/Nov timeframe everyone will be talking about the Miraculous (albeit Jobless) Recovery.
Crash is coming, but needs more time.

That said, I'm reasonably well positioned even if SHTF before then, but I'm unconvinced of any fundamental reason for an Oct crash.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: John Edward Mercier on August 03, 2009, 06:50:08 pm
Not sure I understand, if the price of a 30ry bond is going from just over 97(today) to 109/110... how would that equate to interest rates going up?

And a year ago... the dollar was around 73.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Denis Goddard on August 03, 2009, 08:32:30 pm
Not sure I understand, if the price of a 30ry bond is going from just over 97(today) to 109/110... how would that equate to interest rates going up?
Ha! You got 'em there.
Between that and Bernanke saying interest rates are going to be very low for a long time, I'd say it's a done deal for at least 6-8 months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aNup9I1BQ5M0
Quote
[Bernanke said] the central bank intends to maintain a “highly accommodative” monetary policy for “an extended period.”

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14072551
Quote
On Wall Street, most reckon that means until well into 2010 at least.

Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Luck on August 04, 2009, 09:33:34 am
I don't follow the markets myself, just some of the market watchers. I sent Walter your view and I'll see if he replies.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: John Edward Mercier on August 04, 2009, 10:54:11 am
Bernanke doesn't have any choice at this time.
The FED only has control when the market is in an inflationary tilt, or they can do quantitative easing... which China pretty much warned them pretty heavily not to undertake.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Luck on August 04, 2009, 01:16:36 pm
Quote
Not sure I understand, if the price of a 30ry bond is going from just over 97(today) to 109/110... how would that equate to interest rates going up?
And a year ago... the dollar was around 73. - John

Here's Walter's reply:

The 30 Year Bonds I am referring to is the spot futures contract ZBU9 with the following being the 30 minute chart:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ZB%20U9&o=&a=V%3A30&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=

As you can see on the 30 minute chart they just hit 119.07 and are now heading south. (as they go down interest rates go up)

From that chart at the bottom you will see: 5 min  15 min 30, 60, Daily, Weekly, Monthly. Click on Daily. Here you will see they hit 139 (actual not shown on the daily chart was 141) and you will see the base bottom last year was in the 110 range with my noted statement of yesterday being a probable move back to that point.

Additionally here is a long term (weekly) chart of the Dollar index you may find useful:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=

Hope this clears things up for you,

Walter
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15
Post by: Floridian on August 04, 2009, 01:24:26 pm
ALERT - AUGUST 3RD 2009: Be on High Ground Warning - Aug 14 & 15th

Monday, August 3, 2009 4:03 PM
From: "CAFR1 National" <WalterBurien@CAFR1.com>
CAFR1 NATIONAL POST
 
Keep your eyes open, cash and supplies in hand, and be on high ground come Saturday Aug 15th 2009

Extreme price movements may happen after / around the 15th:

(Natural national emergency could trigger occurrence)

WJB - CAFR1

PS: Per Markets

METALS - UP - Silver from $13 maybe to $18

INTEREST RATES - UP -  (30 Year Bonds down from 119  range  to 110 or 109)

DOLLAR - ??? Maybe 73 to 75

DOW - DOWN - Maybe to 7100 to 7300

CRUDE OIL - UP - Maybe from 71 to $85

LUMBER - UP - Maybe from $200 to $250 - $270 (based on futures contract)

COTTON - UP - Maybe from 69 to 80


Not exactly Doomsday prediction, but at least we only have to wait a couple of weeks to find out.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Denis Goddard on August 04, 2009, 03:09:41 pm
I bet my kids' college education that Walter is wrong.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Luck on August 04, 2009, 06:20:34 pm
I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: maxxoccupancy on August 04, 2009, 07:28:34 pm
Why does no one spell things out in a few short sentences?  Five posts take up three pages?  If you can't summarize, don't bother posting because most people won't bother reading every friggin detail.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: rossby on August 04, 2009, 08:00:03 pm
I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong.

... was that a "I hope someone remembers" or "I hope we still have power and running water"?
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Luck on August 08, 2009, 05:04:20 pm
Quote
... was that a "I hope someone remembers" or "I hope we still have power and running water"? - B.D.
It was a "I hope someone will like to take a little time to post a follow-up on that stats." I suppose it will be a bit longer before utilities may stop.

Http://solari.com had someone's comment that linked to the following:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-19-future-shock
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-20-what-should-i-do
The first summarizes economic prospects and the second provides a good way to plan what actions to take, like maybe getting some of your money from the bank and keeping it on hand for a few months.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: CAFR1 on August 09, 2009, 02:20:45 pm
Not sure I understand, if the price of a 30ry bond is going from just over 97(today) to 109/110... how would that equate to interest rates going up?

And a year ago... the dollar was around 73.



John:

The 30 Year Bonds I am referring to is the spot futures contract ZBU9 with the following being the 30 minute chart:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ZB%20U9&o=&a=V%3A30&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st= (http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ZB%20U9&o=&a=V%3A30&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=)

As you can see on the 30 minute chart they just hit 119.07 and are now heading south. (as they go down interest rates go up)

From that chart at the bottom you will see: 5 min  15 min 30, 60, Daily, Weekly, Monthly. Click on Daily. Here you will see they hit 139 (actual not shown on the daily chart was 141) and you will see the base bottom last year was in the 110 range with my noted statement of yesterday being a probable move back to that point.

Additionally here is a long term (weekly) chart of the Dollar index you may find useful:

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st= (http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=DX&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=HIGH&b=LINE&st=)

Hope this clears things up for you,

Walter

--------------------
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: CAFR1 on August 09, 2009, 03:08:45 pm
It was a "I hope someone will like to take a little time to post a follow-up on that stats." I suppose it will be a bit longer before utilities may stop.


Here is where things stand as of the close on 08/07/09:

US30 SEPT BONDS: 115.10 CLOSE  114.25 LOW
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=ZBU9&code=BSTK (http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=ZBU9&code=BSTK)
(down about 4pts - $4000 per contract from 119 on the 3rd)


US SEPT DOLLAR INDEX - DX: 79.105 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=DXU9&code=BSTK (http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=DXU9&code=BSTK)
(took a big 1pt pop up on Friday - bait the minnows)

SILVER SEPT: 14.66 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=SIU9&code=BSTK (http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=SIU9&code=BSTK)
(up,up, up, and away)

COTTON OCT: 60.53 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=CTV9&code=BSTK (http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=CTV9&code=BSTK)
(picking up steam but will not spike up until the need sets in)

LUMBER SEPT: 197.10 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=LBU9&code=BSTK
(Down on Fri but picking up steam overall. Will not spike up until the need sets in)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Dreepa on August 09, 2009, 06:14:19 pm
I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong.
shouldn't you do that because you predicted it?
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Luck on August 16, 2009, 11:41:50 pm
Quote
I hope someone will be able to post a link to stats in a few weeks to see how many he gets right and wrong. - Luck
Quote
shouldn't you do that because you predicted it? - Dreepa
* I didn't predict that, Walter did. I simply quoted him.

* He supplied stats a week ago above. Maybe he'll do so again soon. Here's what he said originally in BLUE plus what he posted above last week in PURPLE plus what the market seems to have done on Aug 14 in RED.

Keep your eyes open, cash and supplies in hand, and be on high ground come Saturday Aug 15th 2009
Extreme price movements may happen after / around the 15th:
(Natural national emergency could trigger occurrence)
WJB - CAFR1
PS: Per Markets

METALS - UP - Silver from $13 maybe to $18
SILVER SEPT: 14.66 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=SIU9&code=BSTK
(up,up, up, and away)
14.530 on Aug 17
NO

INTEREST RATES - UP -  (30 Year Bonds down from 119  range  to 110 or 109)
US30 SEPT BONDS: 115.10 CLOSE  114.25 LOW
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=ZBU9&code=BSTK
(down about 4pts - $4000 per contract from 119 on the 3rd)
118-315 on Aug 17
NO

DOLLAR - Huh Maybe 73 to 75
US SEPT DOLLAR INDEX - DX: 79.105 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=DXU9&code=BSTK
(took a big 1pt pop up on Friday - bait the minnows)
79.080 on Aug 17
NO

DOW - DOWN - Maybe to 7100 to 7300
9321.40 on Aug 14 (if I read it right)
NO

CRUDE OIL - UP - Maybe from 71 to $85
66.89 on Aug 17
NO

LUMBER - UP - Maybe from $200 to $250 - $270 (based on futures contract)
LUMBER SEPT: 197.10 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=LBU9&code=BSTK
(Down on Fri but picking up steam overall. Will not spike up until the need sets in)
189.50 on Aug 14
NO

COTTON - UP - Maybe from 69 to 80
COTTON OCT: 60.53 CLOSE
http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=CTV9&code=BSTK
(picking up steam but will not spike up until the need sets in)
58.38   on Aug 17
NO

So far it looks like none of the predictions have yet proven to be correct. Should we wait another week?
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Denis Goddard on August 17, 2009, 09:25:31 am
If you wait long enough, any prediction will come true.
Now, please ignore the hell out of whatever nutcake fed you that crap initially
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: rossby on August 17, 2009, 11:53:33 am
If you wait long enough, any prediction will come true.
Now, please ignore the hell out of whatever nutcake fed you that crap initially

Wake me up when Jesus returns. kthx.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Dreepa on August 17, 2009, 01:30:24 pm
If you wait long enough, any prediction will come true.
Now, please ignore the hell out of whatever nutcake fed you that crap initially

Wake me up when Jesus returns. kthx.
he did.. he worked in a record store in Quahog.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Luck on August 17, 2009, 08:20:42 pm
Never mind.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: rossby on August 17, 2009, 08:49:05 pm
Why do you guys have to stoop to insulting people on the Friendly Forum?

Because we're insulting and childish? To shame them publicly for conjectural fear-mongering? What sort of answer do you want? I don't see anything particularly "insulting". 'Cept for him being called a "nutcake". Though in Denis' defense, portending imminent economic doom without articulating any particular reason for it is, in my book, a bit "nutty".
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: Denis Goddard on August 17, 2009, 10:17:11 pm
Dude, we were being friendly. Been around libertarians much?
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: John Edward Mercier on August 18, 2009, 12:53:49 pm
His reasoning seemed to be inflationary fears...
That would drive commodity prices and interest rates higher... and most likely result in a declining equity market.

Just I feel the FED has upside potential on interest rates to protect against inflation, but clearly limited power to prevent deflation.
Title: Re: Big Price Movements ca. Aug 15; [Later] Economic Collaspe; October Surprise
Post by: rossby on August 18, 2009, 01:06:04 pm
His reasoning seemed to be inflationary fears...
That would drive commodity prices and interest rates higher... and most likely result in a declining equity market.

Just I feel the FED has upside potential on interest rates to protect against inflation, but clearly limited power to prevent deflation.

CPI data shows we've had deflation for the last... well, since Feb 2009.