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Author Topic: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win  (Read 13676 times)
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Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« on: January 22, 2012, 04:28:27 pm »

If anyone ever says that Ron Paul didn't do well in NH or that Free State Project activists didn't help Paul in NH, don't tell the person they are wrong, politely prove it to the person. Paul's victory in NH was both wide and deep. The victory produced 70% boost for Paul in the SC polls and FSPers were a huge factor in Paul's NH victory.

Please share these links with Ron Paul activists in other states.  Paul did fantastic in NH.


Don't forget about the FSP's Ron Paul Intro page.  It has a great deal of information on NH and Ron Paul's successes in NH.  It is a great page to share with any Ron Paul fan.
http://freestateproject.org/intro/ron_paul

« Last Edit: April 25, 2012, 02:57:59 pm by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2012, 04:28:42 pm »

The victory in NH was wide and deep, http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?531-Ron-Paul%E2%80%99s-Victory-in-New-Hampshire-was-Both-Wide-and-Deep

Ron Paul’s Victory in New Hampshire was Both Wide and Deep

Ron Paul came in a strong second out of thirty candidates on January 10th in the New Hampshire Republican Primary with 23% of the vote. While Paul was second overall, he won Coos County with over 30% of the vote. Paul was second in the nine other New Hampshire counties and only lost to Romney by 5 points in Cheshire, Grafton and Sullivan counties.

Paul won around sixty New Hampshire towns including the Keene area towns of Marlow, Sullivan, and Troy and the Concord area towns of Boscawen, Chichester, Epsom, Northfield, Salisbury, and Webster. Paul won the Taxachusetts border towns of Winchester, New Ipswich and Richmond, the only New Hampshire town Paul won in 2008. In 2012, Paul won Richmond with close to 50% of the vote. Paul won city wards all over the state from Franklin Ward 2 to Laconia Ward 5 in the Lakes Region, to Dover Ward 1 and Somersworth Ward 2 on the Maine border. Paul also won wards in Manchester, Nashua and Concord, New Hampshire’s three largest cities. Paul won Berlin, the northernmost city in New Hampshire and Claremont, a city on the Vermont border.

Ron Paul not only took second in the 2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary, but he also took second in the 2012 New Hampshire Democratic Primary. Ron Paul not only did well in the Democratic Primary, but he received more votes in the Republican Primary than Barack Obama received in the Democratic Primary.

According to a CNN Exit poll, Paul almost won 50% of the 18 to 29 year old vote in New Hampshire. Paul also won the 30 to 39 year old vote with 35% to Mitt Romney’s 34%. Paul did best with voters making under $30,000 per year, first time Republican Primary voters, undeclared voters, socially liberal voters, voters that wanted a true conservative, voters that wanted strong moral character and non-religious voters.

The New Hampshire Secretary of State official results
http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2012/
CNN Exit poll
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh
Town Map
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2012/president/primaries/nh/results/
« Last Edit: January 22, 2012, 04:32:22 pm by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2012, 04:28:53 pm »

The bump Paul saw in the SC polls was big, http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?530-Paul%E2%80%99s-New-Hampshire-Bump

Paul’s New Hampshire Bump

Ron Paul came in a strong second on January 10th in the New Hampshire Republican Primary with 23% of the vote. Second out of thirty candidates is pretty impressive considering that some of the candidates lived in New Hampshire and most of them were only competing in New Hampshire. While it is true that Paul only came in second in New Hampshire, Paul was the only candidate to get a bump in the South Carolina polls from the New Hampshire election results.

In polls by three different polling companies, Ron Paul had a significant bump in South Carolina. According to the South Carolina PPP poll before the New Hampshire Primary, Ron Paul polled at 9%. In the PPP poll right after the New Hampshire Primary, Ron Paul polled at 15%. The pre-New Hampshire Primary Rasmussen Reports poll had Ron Paul at 11%. The post-New Hampshire Primary Rasmussen Reports poll had Ron Paul at 16%. The American Research Group polls before and after the New Hampshire Primary showed a jump from 9% to 20% for Ron Paul in South Carolina.

While New Hampshire gave a bump to Ron Paul, no other candidate received a bump from the New Hampshire Primary. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich did not change more than a point or two in either direction according to South Carolina polls by American Research Group, Rasmussen Reports and PPP.

Rick Santorum received a negative bump from the New Hampshire Primary. Rick Santorum was tied with Gingrich for second in South Carolina before the New Hampshire Primary. After the New Hampshire Primary, Santorum dropped 17 points from 24% to 7% according to American Research Group. According to Rasmussen Reports, Santorum dropped 8 points in South Carolina.

New Hampshire ended the campaign for several candidates. Jon Huntsman moved to New Hampshire months before the Primary. Huntsman campaigned exclusively in New Hampshire. However, he only finished a distant third in New Hampshire and dropped out of the race. Rick Perry was at one time leading in nationwide polls. However, Perry received less than 1% of the vote in New Hampshire and dropped out of the race.

All of the information from the PPP and Rasmussen Reports polls mentioned above is located on the South Carolina Republican Primary Polls section of the Real Clear Politics website. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html
The American Research Group polls are found on the American Research Group website. http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc/

Edit: For those that do not understand the significance of a boost from 10% in the polls to 17% in the polls, that is a 70% increase!
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 08:19:53 pm by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2012, 04:29:05 pm »

How FSPers and other helped Paul take 2nd in NH, http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?532-Why-Ron-Paul-Did-so-Well-in-New-Hampshire-in-2012

Why Ron Paul Did so Well in New Hampshire in 2012

Ron Paul received more than 18,000 votes at around 8% of the vote in 2008.  In 2012, Paul received just fewer than 57,000 votes at around 23% of the vote.  This dramatic lead happened, despite only twenty-one candidates on the ballot in 2008 compared to the thirty candidates on the ballot in 2012.  The question is, why did support for Paul grow so much between 2008 and 2012?

Ron Paul’s 2012 winning formula was a combination of many things.  Extra volunteers, be them the youth volunteers that spent the last week of the campaign in New Hampshire, or the volunteers from around the county that called New Hampshire homes for weeks leading up to the Primary.  Paul really helped himself with a fantastic debate performance on the Saturday night before the Primary.  A little known issue outside of New Hampshire, Northern Pass, helped to positively set Paul apart from Mitt Romney.  There is no doubt that Free State Project participants were also critical to Paul’s second place victory.  The ideas Paul talks about implementing on the national level are in many ways ideas that are currently being implemented in New Hampshire.  From Paul’s idea of deep government budget cuts to his ideas of tax and regulation reform, it’s currently happening in New Hampshire so the voters are familiar with it.

Paul had one of his best debate performances of the campaign season during the Saturday night debate before the Primary.  Combine that with all of the Ron Paul ads that played during the debate, including the Revolution PAC ad, and you have a winning formula.

In the rural, scarcely populated north county, Northern Pass was a big issue in the election.  Support for the project is so thin that only 15% of northern NH voters favor the use eminent domain to complete Northern Pass.   Not only did Paul come out strongest against eminent domain use for Northern Pass, but he came out strongest against the project in general among all of the candidates.  Romney gave a wishy-washy answer on the issue and word got out that one of Romney’s main fundraisers was a key player in Northern Pass.  The Union Leader and a Ron Paul activist used this issue to help Paul and hurt Romney.  The majority of the towns where the power lines Northern Pass calls for may theoretically go, perhaps with the use of eminent domain, went to Paul including: Ashland, Bethlehem, Chichester, Clarksville, Colebrook, Columbia, Dalton, Hill, New Hampton, Northfield, Northumberland, Salisbury, Stewartstown, Thornton and Whitefield.

The youth volunteers and other volunteers from around the county gave Paul an extra boost in 2012.  For the Iowa Caucus, Paul had 100s of youth volunteers.  The volunteers along with other factors, helped over double Paul share of the vote from 10% in 2008 to 21% in 2012.  Even though Paul only had around 100 youth volunteers in New Hampshire in 2012, they were a welcomed addition that helped his campaign make phone calls, go door-to-door and with other programs.  Out-of-state volunteers called New Hampshire residents for weeks on behalf of the campaign. To some extent, other campaigns had similar programs but perhaps only Romney’s efforts matched Paul’s in New Hampshire.

Between the 2008 and 2012 elections, the number of Free State Project participants that moved to New Hampshire doubled.  While the FSP didn’t officially get involved with the Paul campaign, as it doesn’t get involved in politics at all, some people that moved to New Hampshire as part of the FSP spent the last few years talking about and helping gain support for Paul in New Hampshire.  FSP movers and friendly locals were at 100s of sign waves, phone banks and door knocking events for Paul.  They appeared on local TV and radio shows and wrote articles in newspapers about their support for Dr. Paul.  There is no doubt that without the support of these activists, Ron Paul would not have finished second in NH.

Partly due to tea partiers, libertarians and free staters, the ideas Paul talks about are currently happening in New Hampshire.  Paul’s major domestic issues are reducing government spending and reducing regulations and taxes on both people and corporations.  The New Hampshire government just reduced government spending by more than any state has ever reduced government spending since the World War II era.  Those reductions, along with regulation and tax reform are what the New Hampshire Republican leadership considers the main accomplishments of 2011.  Don’t take my word for it.  Go to the accomplishments paper and read about how 43 laws to reduce regulations passed and how both fees and taxes were cut.  BTW, Dr. Paul’s theory about additional jobs being created if regulations and businesses taxes were reduced worked in New Hampshire, as the unemployment rate was over 6% at the start of 2011 but was under 5% by the end of the year.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2012, 07:17:37 pm by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2012, 05:42:30 pm »

Ron Paul’s Success in New Hampshire Boosted his Support by 25% Nationally, http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?563-Ron-Paul%E2%80%99s-Success-in-New-Hampshire-Boosted-his-Support-by-25-Nationally

Not only did Ron Paul receive a 7 point boost in South Carolina polls because of his success in the 1/10/12 New Hampshire Primary, but he also received a boost nationwide.  Real Clear Politics only lists 1 polling company as doing a national poll right before and another national poll right after the New Hampshire Primary.  According to Pew Research's 1/4/12 to 1/8/12 poll, Ron Paul was at 12% nationally.  According to Pew Research's 1/11/12 to 1/16/12 poll, Ron Paul was at 15% nationally.  That is a 3 point boost for Ron Paul.  A 3 point boost for Ron Paul is a 25% (from 12% of people to 15% of people) increase of support for Ron Paul nationally.

The 2 polls make a lot of sense.  Rick Santorum did horrible in New Hampshire and he dropped from 16% in the post Iowa Caucus victory poll to 14% in the post poor showing in the New Hampshire Primary poll.  Mitt Romney gained a few points from his victory in New Hampshire.  Rick Perry dropped from 6% in the pre-New Hampshire Primary poll to 5% in the poll conducted after the New Hampshire Primary.  Rick Perry received 10% of the votes in the Iowa Caucus.  However, he only received 1% of the votes in the New Hampshire Primary.  Even the last few diehard Perry supporters started to abandon him after his terrible showing in New Hampshire.  The poor showing in New Hampshire led Rick Perry to drop out of the race before the South Carolina Primary.

Polls are very good at looking how candidates change over time when looking at polls from the same polling company using the same methodology.  It is harder to accurately compare polls from different polling companies because companies use different methodologies.  However, for fun, let's do it anyway!

Below are the national polls before and after the New Hampshire Primary that are listed on Real Clear Politics. There were 4 polls between the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary.  There were 7 polls between the New Hampshire Primary and the South Carolina Primary.  Even when comparing polls that used different methodologies, the results are the same.  Ron Paul’s great showing in the New Hampshire Primary boosted his showing in national polls.

Ron Paul's Percentage in National Polls just before the New Hampshire Primary
Average of all 4 polls 12.5%
Reuters/Ipsos 16%
CBS News 10%
Pew Research 12%
Rasmussen Reports 12%

Ron Paul's Percentage in National Polls just after the New Hampshire Primary
Average of all 7 polls 14.1%
Rasmussen Reports 13%
CBS News/NY Times 15%
Gallup Tracking 12%
Pew Research 15%
ABC News/Wash Post 16%
FOX News 13%
CNN/Opinion Research 15%

Pew Research 1/9/12 National Republican Poll
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/1-9-12%20Political%20Release.pdf
Pew Research 1/18/12 National Republican Poll
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/1-18-12%20Political%20Release.pdf
Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
« Last Edit: February 07, 2012, 04:26:55 pm by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2012, 04:27:12 pm »

Ron Paul’s 6 towns over 40% Edit Blog Entry http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?567-Ron-Paul%E2%80%99s-6-towns-over-40

Here is a little motivation. I know some people are feeling down.  I know some people are feeling bad.  I know some people are frustrated.  Don’t feel down.  We are doing amazing things.  We have come so far and will go so much further!

Ron Paul took 40% or more of the vote in 6 New Hampshire towns.  In New Hampshire, there were 30 candidates in the race.  There are currently 4 candidates in the race for the Republican nomination.  Here is how the candidates did in the 6 New Hampshire towns.

Millsfield
Ron Paul 53%
Romney 13%
Gingrich 13%
Santorum negligible

Richmond
Ron Paul 48%
Romney 22%
Santorum 10%
Gingrich negligible

Benton
Ron Paul 45%
Romney 30%
Gingrich 11%
Santorum 9%

Alexandria
Ron Paul 43%
Romney 24%
Santorum 8%
Gingrich negligible

Stewartstown
Ron Paul 43%
Romney 19%
Santorum 13%
Gingrich negligible

Warren
Ron Paul 40%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 13%
Santorum negligible

New Hampshire Secretary of State
http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2012/RepSummaryPres.htm
Google election results
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results/2012/gop-primary/nh
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 08:14:34 pm by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2012, 08:13:14 pm »

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul compared

Original blog post http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?572-Percentage-of-total-state-population-voting-for-Ron-Paul-compared
Updated information http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?360037-Percentage-of-total-state-population-voting-for-Ron-Paul-compared

I'll update the list after the results for every state election are announced.  Eventually, I'll create a new blog post with the completed information.

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, ranked highest to lowest:
1. New Hampshire 4.3%
2. South Carolina 1.7%
3. Iowa 0.9%
4. Florida 0.6%
5. Missouri 0.5%
6. Minnesota 0.3%
7. Nevada 0.2%
8. Colorado 0.2%

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, listed in chronological order:
Iowa 1/3/12 0.9%
New Hampshire 1/10/12 4.3%
South Carolina 1/21/12 1.7%
Florida 1/21/12 0.6%
Nevada 2/4/12 0.2%
Missouri 2/7/12 0.5%
Minnesota 2/7/12 0.3%
Colorado 2/7/12 0.2%

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, listed by how easy it is to vote in state primary:
South Carolina everyone allowed to vote 1.7%
Missouri everyone allowed to vote 0.5%
New Hampshire GOP and Undeclared allowed to vote 4.3%
Florida GOP allowed to vote 0.6%

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, listed by how easy it is to vote in state caucus:
Minnesota everyone allowed to vote 0.3%
Iowa GOP allowed to vote 0.9%
Nevada GOP allowed to vote 0.2%
Colorado GOP allowed to vote 0.2%

Sources:
Type "population of XXX" into google to see the population source used for the states. Results quickly pop up from http://www.google.com/publicdata -- Source: U.S. Census Bureau
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries for the vote results
See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?315740-State-by-State-Voting-Information for information on about how easy it is to vote in a primary or caucus
« Last Edit: April 25, 2012, 02:51:57 pm by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2012, 05:51:29 pm »

Ron Paul's Percentage of the Vote by Region

Original blog post http://www.ronpaulforums.com/entry.php?607-Ron-Paul-s-Percentage-of-the-Vote-by-Region
Updated information http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?366812-Ron-Paul-Support-by-Region

I'll update the list after the results for every state election are announced.

Ron Paul's Percentage of the Vote by Region

Ron Paul tends to do better in caucus states than primary states.  Most of the caucus states are in the Midwest, Mountain West and Pacific Northwest. The Mid-Atlantic and Southeast average is shown including and excluding VA.

As of 3/14, the strongest regions arer: Mid-Atlantic, Northern New England, New England, Northeast, West Coast, Pacific Northwest, East Coast... Let's see how that changes as additional primaries/caucuses are held.
As of 4/4, the strongest regions are: Northern New England, New England, Northeast, Canadian Border, West Coast...
As of 4/25, the strongest regions are: Northern New England, West Coast, New England, Pacific Northwest, Canadian Border, Northeast...

Canadian Border (AK, WA, ID, MT, ND, MN, WI, MI, NY, VT, NH, ME)
Average 22%
AK 24%
WA 25%
ID 18%
ND 28%
MN 27%
WI 11%
MI 12%
NY 15%
VT 26%
NH 23%
ME 36%

East Coast (ME, NH, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL)
Average 17%
ME 36%
NH 23%
MA 10%
RI 24%
CT 14%
NY 15%
PA 13%
DE 11%
MD 10%
DC 12%
VA 41%
SC 13%
GA 7%
FL 7%

Great Lakes (MN, MI, WI, IL, IN, OH, PA, NY)
Average 14%
MN 27%
MI 12%
WI 11%
OH 9%
IL 9%

Gulf Coast (TX, LA, MS, AL, FL)
Average 5%
LA 6%
FL 7%
MS 4%
AL 5%

Mexican Border (CA, AZ, NM, TX)
Average 8%
AZ 8%

Mid-Atlantic (NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, DC, WV, VA)
Average 17% (excluding VA Average 12%)
NY 15%
PA 13%
DE 11%
MD 10%
DC 12%
VA 41%

Midwest (ND, SD, NE, KS, MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH)
Average 16%
ND 28%
KS 13%
MN 27%
IA 21%
MO Primary 12%
WI 11%
MI 12%
OH 9%
IL 9%

Mountain West (NV, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, AZ, NM)
Average 16%
NV 19%
ID 18%
WY 21%
CO 12%
AZ 8%

New England (VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT)
Average 22%
VT 26%
NH 23%
ME 36%
MA 10%
RI 24%
CT 14%

Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ)
Average 20%
ME 36%
NH 23%
VT 26%
MA 10%
RI 24%
CT 14%
NY 15%
PA 13%

Northern New England (VT, NH, ME)
Average 28%
VT 26%
NH 23%
ME 36%

Pacific Northwest (AK, WA, OR, ID)
Average 22%
AK 24%
WA 25%
ID 18%

Southeast (VA, WV, KY, NC, SC, TN, AK, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL)
Average 12% (excluding VA Average 7%)
VA 41%
SC 13%
TN 9%
LA 6%
GA 7%
FL 7%
MS 4%
AL 5%

Southwest (NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM, TX, OK)
Average 12%
NV 19%
CO 12%
AZ 8%
OK 10%

West Coast (HI, AK, WA, OR, CA)
Average 23%
HI 19%
AK 24%
WA 25%

Sources:
I used Google when possible http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results
When Google was wrong like in the cases of ME and WY, I used http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
« Last Edit: April 26, 2012, 12:15:11 am by LoveAndPeace » Logged

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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2012, 02:55:52 pm »

Also share the recently updated FSP Ron Paul intro page with all of the Ron Paul supporters you know. It includes the endorsement Ron Paul gave to the FSP, history of Ron Paul's successes in NH and lots of info about NH than any Ron Paul fan would love to see.
http://freestateproject.org/intro/ron_paul
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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2012, 08:09:31 pm »

There is a lot of great info in this thread. Someone just told me that Romney did well in NH and that is a real NH should lose the 1st primary in the nation. I used this thread to come up with some information to explain to him that Ron Paul did best in NH. In fact, Ron Paul did so well in NH, it really helped him in other places.
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Re: Ron Paul, New Hampshire and the Free State Project - We win
« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2013, 03:46:39 pm »

Just wanted to remind everyone that Ron Paul did best in 2012 in New Hampshire. There used to be a Ron Paul FSP intro page on the old version of the FSP website. However, the website looked old and was updated. Now that intro page is gone. So when referring a Ron Paul supporter to how well Ron Paul did in NH, please refer the supporter to this thread.
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