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Topic: Can FSP people explain NH politics regarding Ron Paul? Did FSP pick the wrong st (Read 8072 times)
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trueblue
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Hello, I came here because I know the FSP people are mostly libertarians, and that after an exhaustive study, the FSP choose NH as their new home and the best place for rebuilding "liberty in our lifetime."
With that said, can someone please explain to me why Mitt Romney is polling at 40% and Ron Paul is polling at 19%?
The FSP has been going for quite some time now. I really have to question: Did the FSP people make a mistake in picking NH?
If there ever was a candidate that looks like it should be a hand/glove fit for NH it's Ron Paul, yet 80% of NH reject him? I just do not understand.
Is there a dynamic I do not know about NH politics?
And if you tell me Romney is getting 40% because he's got name recognition from MA, then I have to say, yes, FSP picked the wrong state. Because any state will have 40% of the people vote based on name recognition alone. I just do not see this great "live free or die" society in NH. It seems like it's just a motto.
At least not yet.
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davidesanders
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Posts: 23
Anarchist, neopagan, nudist, polyamorous
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I can't answer that question completely, but I have an additional question -- Why not Gary Johnson, who seems much more in line with FSP stated principles?
Also, I can't figure out why a state thinking about putting up warning signs about the MA border would poll so high for a MA governor.
But, NH used to be a pretty conservative state, from what I understand. Older voters in Iowa went for Romney, younger ones for Paul. NH, like most of
the country, is aging. NH has also changed from a Republican state to a more Libertarian state, but that doesn't mean there are not still plenty of
Republicans. The Libertarian party itself doesn't have a large following, although libertarians (small L) are increasing beyond the numbers of Libertarians.
Gary Johnson has almost no name recognition.
David E. Sanders
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Sovereign Curtis
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No
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"I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do."  |
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JasonPSorens
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NH was Ron Paul's best state in 2008 ( http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~jsorens/rpvotes.pdf). Bear in mind also that a handful of Free Staters are supporting Jon Huntsman (I believe those who supported Gary Johnson have moved to Ron Paul now that he has dropped out). |
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Audio signature (MP3) "Experience has shown that it is difficult, if not impossible, for a populous state to be run by good laws." --Aristotle, The Politics
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dalebert
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There seems to be a lot of this mindset that has misunderstood what the FSP was all about. I thought it was an effort to go somewhere where we could effectively work toward freedom. If you just want to join a project who's goal is to just go somewhere that's already free, you need to have your house picked up by a tornado and transported to some imaginary place.
Based on this single-minded criteria of judgment, what state should they have picked instead of NH?
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« Last Edit: January 05, 2012, 11:45:28 am by dalebert »
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sandm000
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Because you aren't here helping spread the word?
If Ron Paul is the only answer, you've asked the wrong question?
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A government is not legitimate merely because it exists.
-Jeane J. Kirkpatrick
The government's War on Poverty has transformed poverty from a short-term misfortune into a career choice.-Harry Browne
We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes non-work.-Milton Friedman
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Liberty603
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With that said, can someone please explain to me why Mitt Romney is polling at 40% and Ron Paul is polling at 19%?
You could ask that same question about anywhere in the country. Where is Ron Paul polling first?  Despite being from MA, the reality is that Romney has a certain "homestate" advantage here in NH, both due to proximity and having a summer home in NH. That accounts for part of his lead. Other than that, much of it just comes down to campaigning, takes a huge amount of work. If the campaign had invested as much effort here as they did in Iowa, we'd be doing better. Until recently I saw 3x as many Romney signs as Paul signs, partially because the campaign does not believe in roadside signs. That is not a slam on the campaign (I know they have limited resources and are doing their best to strategize) but the reality is that it makes a difference. We are making progress. Latest poll (today) puts Romney @ 38%, Paul @ 24%. Romney winning NH is almost a "given" (in the game of expectations) and I think a strong 2nd (anything over 20%) for Ron Paul should be considered a victory, personally. If you want to help, sign up for Phone From Home and make some calls! |
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ggeezz
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I was getting ready to post a link to the poll above. I believe that makes NH Paul's best state in the polls despite him putting most of his focus into Iowa.
If you're just going by Ron Paul support, then I think NH is vindicated.
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davidesanders
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Posts: 23
Anarchist, neopagan, nudist, polyamorous
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It is interesting that at least CNN is carrying the results of the Suffolk poll carried out Jan. 3-4, and not the Washington Times/Zogby poll
carried out entirely on the 4th. In other words, the first poll doesn't include results that could have been affected by the results of the
Iowa caucus.
The Suffolk poll showed a drop for Ron Paul, the second a huge boost. Also, looking at the figures, much of Ron Paul's gain seems to
have come from previously undecided voters, and Romney's drop is more than Santorum's gain.
I have emailed CNN the reference above, but that was hours ago, and so far no change. I have not seen any of the other news channels
carry any poll results, but that could be because I don't view them much.
David E. Sanders
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John Edward Mercier
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Most likely its because its the Republican primary... leaning more libertarian than your opponents isn't always that valuable in that atmosphere.
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JasonPSorens
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The Suffolk poll also showed a gain for Paul, but something about Suffolk's methodology causes them to give much smaller shares for Paul than other pollsters. They had Paul at 14% a few days ago, 18% yesterday, an increase just outside the margin of error.
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Audio signature (MP3) "Experience has shown that it is difficult, if not impossible, for a populous state to be run by good laws." --Aristotle, The Politics
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TheMagicBullet
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Why isn't Ron Paul polling better? Come on, who do you think answers the phones for these polls?! Who do you think the pollsters contact in the first place?! I don't know of any Porcs who've participated in any mainstream polls about the primary, but I know a lot of them will be voting RP. I wouldn't be surprised if RP performs a lot better in NH than predicted. Not necessarily that he'll win, but I think he can do better than 20% easily.
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B.D. Ross
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With that said, can someone please explain to me why Mitt Romney is polling at 40% and Ron Paul is polling at 19%?
Because polls are about name recognition. Romney has been campaigning in NH since 2008; no other candidate has. The FSP has been going for quite some time now. I really have to question: Did the FSP people make a mistake in picking NH?
A mistake how? If there ever was a candidate that looks like it should be a hand/glove fit for NH it's Ron Paul, yet 80% of NH reject him? I just do not understand.
Reject? Or prefer to vote for someone else. You can only vote for one person. And if you tell me Romney is getting 40% because he's got name recognition from MA, then I have to say, yes, FSP picked the wrong state.
That's silly. The FSP selected a state several years before Romney first ran for president. Is there a dynamic I do not know about NH politics?
That would take a long time. |
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maxxoccupancy
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Ron Paul ran in 2008, but received almost no media attention, and was kept out of debates. Those voters who hear and see him are tending to support him. http://sharesend.com/42gsu |
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"The Free State Project is an agreement among 20,000 pro-liberty activists to move to New Hampshire, where they will exert the fullest practical effort toward the creation of a society in which the maximum role of government is the protection of life, liberty, and property." Freedom Expo is at Trinity Parish House, Seabrook, April 27, 2013! (right next to the Post Office)
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