job forecasts

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May 23, 2013, 04:24:55 pm

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Today I wrote the relevant departments of all the candidate states to obtain the new jobs growth forecasts for 2000-2010. New Hampshire told me theirs wouldn't be ready until spring, and Wyoming told me theirs wouldn't be ready until February. So I won't be able to update the State Data page until then. However, I have heard from several other states that do have the data. Mostly the figures are similar to those for the 1998-2008 period, with Alaska, Vermont, and Maine doing somewhat worse (Maine perhaps "much" worse), and South Dakota doing somewhat better, while Montana is projected to do much better. (Specifically, forecasted jobs for Alaska are now 47.8 thousand, for Vermont 34.4, for Maine 56.4, for South Dakota 61.6, for Montana 92.5.) Still haven't heard from Idaho, North Dakota, and Delaware.

Mr Sorens,

Did they give you anything in the way of specifics, such as what type of jobs will be available?

Jason,

Do we know of anywhere we can get objective job forecasts rather than relying on the states to tell the truth about the state of their economies?

George

For most states full occupational forecasts aren't available yet. The most they have is industry forecasts. I believe Vermont does have the full occupational forecast ready. Check out:
http://www.vtlmi.info/occupation.cfm

As for whether these forecasts are objective, I believe they are. They are generated by independent professional economists. In the past, occupational forecasts have been within a 2% error margin for each occupation, according to one site I looked at. That sort of accuracy actually surprises me. I expected that at least some occupations would have widely different outcomes from those expected. I suppose this does happen from time to time, but apparently it's rare. Total jobs forecasted should be even more accurate, because the random errors in occupational forecasts should generally average out.

Delaware just in: 61.6 thousand, which is substantially worse than the previous forecast. I got a message from Idaho saying that they will be sending their figures to me today or tomorrow.

Thank goodness you're an excellent bean-counter, Jason. Grin

Idaho's 2000-2010 projected jobs growth is 158.7 thousand. That's a fairly substantial decline from the previous estimate; however, Idaho still has by far the best job market of any of the candidate states, and the silver lining is that Idaho's projected population growth over the next 10 years may also be lower than previously thought.

I just heard back from the final state, North Dakota, and they won't have their forecasts ready till May. So I won't be able to update the state data page with the job forecasts until then, but at least we know the figures for 7 of the candidate states.

Can you update the page with the information you know, with an asterisk or something for the states with non-current data?

I thought about that. It might be the best solution. Because of the economic decline since 2000, I expect the jobs forecasts to be a little bit worse for NH, WY, and ND, but since we have to wait so long for the new numbers, it may be best to mix and match anyway.

Quote from: Jason P. Sorens on November 21, 2002, 10:00:01 am

I believe Vermont does have the full occupational forecast ready. Check out:
http://www.vtlmi.info/occupation.cfm

Very interesting web site; thanks for the URL. It looks bad for systems software geeks like me -- only 35 annual job openings, as compared to over 600 for "cashier". I doubt that Wyoming would be much better, but we'll see.

You can find the occupational forecasts for 1998-2008 for all states here:
http://almis.dws.state.ut.us/occ/projections.asp
Though outdated, they still give you a pretty good idea of which occupations are growing rapidly and which are declining.

New Hampshire's 2000-2010 occupational projections have come out, and the state is forecast to create 109,400 new jobs between 2000 and 2010, a slight increase on the 1998-2008 figure. Wyoming and North Dakota still haven't published their figures.

Some people have brought up that fact that Wyoming has less projected job growth than most of the other states. This is true. However, even though Ft. Collins is not in any of the FSP possible states, it is only 40 min. from Wyoming and has tons of jobs.

The Ft. Collins MSA has over 260,000 people
Here are some statistics on the Ft. Collins MSA from the Northern Colorado Economic Development Council:
The Ft. Collins MSA is one of the 10 fastest growing MSAs in the country
The Ft. Collins MSA expects 215,000 new jobs between 1997 and 2010
Median Income is $58,200
Major Employers: Colorado State University, ConAgra Beef, Hewlett-Packard, Agilent Technologies, Poudre Valley Health Systems, Eastman Kodak, Wal-Mart, State Farm Insurance, StarTek, Inc., Woodward, Advanced Energy, Teledyne WaterPik, McKee Medical Center, Anheuser-Busch, and Celestica

According to FAIR, the Ft. Collins MSA is projected to have 533,000 people by 2025.

For more info see:
http://www.fortcollinschamber.com/
http://www.ncedc.com/
http://www.ci.fort-collins.co.us/fcfacts.php?ID=6
http://www.fairus.org/html/msas/042colar.htm

I know Ft. Collins is not in Wyoming. However, I feel that this solves any question people might have about not enough jobs in Wyoming. Clearly, all of the states, even Vermont, have enough jobs for 20,000 hard working people. However, some people still question this, for whatever strange reason. The ability to get more jobs within 40 min. of Wyoming than within most of the other FSP states, should answer the problem to those folks. Wyoming is not isolated from the rest of the world. It is one of the least isolated candidate states. As long as you are able to drive a little, you will be able to get a high paying job in your current field. There is no need to worry

Quote from: FreedomRoad on April 13, 2003, 11:26:54 pm

The Ft. Collins MSA has over 260,000 people
Here are some statistics on the Ft. Collins MSA from the Northern Colorado Economic Development Council:
The Ft. Collins MSA is one of the 10 fastest growing MSAs in the country
The Ft. Collins MSA expects 215,000 new jobs between 1997 and 2010
Median Income is $58,200
Major Employers: Colorado State University, ConAgra Beef, Hewlett-Packard, Agilent Technologies, Poudre Valley Health Systems, Eastman Kodak, Wal-Mart, State Farm Insurance, StarTek, Inc., Woodward, Advanced Energy, Teledyne WaterPik, McKee Medical Center, Anheuser-Busch, and Celestica

For more info see:
http://www.fortcollinschamber.com/
http://www.ncedc.com/
http://www.ci.fort-collins.co.us/fcfacts.php?ID=6

I know Ft. Collins is not in Wyoming. However, I feel that this solves any question people might have about not enough jobs in Wyoming. Clearly, all of the states, even Vermont, have enough jobs for 20,000 hard working people. However, some people still question this, for whatever strange reason. Well, the ability to get more jobs within 40 min. of Wyoming than within any of the other FSP states, should answer the problem to those folks. As long as you are able to drive 45 min or so, you will be able to get a high paying job in your current field. There is no need to worry.

This is encouraging information, FreedomRoad. I now know more options for employment if we choose Wyoming.

Some caveats, however:

You say 45 min. or so, that's a summer-time traffic estimate. Yahoo! maps says it is 55 minutes from city-center to city-center.

Then there is the fact that it is somewhat mountainous, then there is the fact that there can be a lot of snow on the ground at certain times of the year, it is a major highway, so it is going to be kept plowed, but if it is icy, you are going to be driving 30 m.p.h. instead of 75, and it might just take 1 hr. 45 minutes each way on those few days.
Nevertheless, here where I live in Fresno, CA there are people who actually commute each day back to the Bay Area and Silicon Valley. That is a 3-hour drive each way on sunny days when it is not foggy. A recent newspaper report in the Fresno Bee chronicled the life of over 100 residents who make such a sacrifice every day. They do it because they save money on the real estate prices here.

I once had a college Professor who commuted daily between Salt Lake City, UT and Logan, UT --a 1.5 hour drive on good days, but during the winter there were few good days through Logan canyon and he sometimes even had to get-out the sleeping bag in his office because the roads were closed.
--The point is, people do it, if they have to, and this commute is hardly spectacular compared to what other people do for causes other than the cause of liberty.

Working out-of-state means you will not take advantage of the tax benefits of working in Wyoming. Wyoming residents might appreciate the fact that you are bringing money into the community, but some of that will be lost on taxes to Colorado.
As discussed on a thread about commuting out-of-state, you will lose valuable time commuting that could be used towards greater causes. But if that is the trade-off that has to be made to even move into the state, it is all worth it.

Hopefully, eventually, the need to commute will disappear as opportunities grow in your home state of Wyoming.

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