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Author Topic: Hate to bring bad news, but....  (Read 22096 times)

AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #45 on: May 19, 2015, 09:22:36 pm »

Typically, this part of the world hits triple digits for the first time for the year like clockwork sometime during the 3rd week of May. Last year it took until 5/27. I've been watching the 30 day forecast to see what they're reporting and they keep pushing that day out. A week ago it said we would hit it by 5/25. Yesterday it reported that we would see 100 by May 31. Today it was pushed out another day to June 1.
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #46 on: May 22, 2015, 04:25:08 pm »

Link on drudge right now to a story on the Washington Times and on Mother Jones that the CIA is ending public access to climate data.

The program called MEDEA allowed civilian access to climate data from CIA sources.

Are they doing this because the data validates the "global warming" trope or are they doing this because the data unequivocally invalidates the "global warming" trope?

Also, I saw that much of New England would be right around freezing this weekend.
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JasonPSorens

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #47 on: May 22, 2015, 05:48:46 pm »

There's a freeze watch tonight in my area, but the forecast low is 33. Not unusual for this time of year. The high today was in the 60s; there's just a big swing between daytime highs and nighttime lows. By the weekend the highs will be in the 80s.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #48 on: July 12, 2015, 02:35:35 pm »

Not sure if anyone saw the AP report that came out on Thursday about the sun "going to sleep in 2020."

There's a nice summary in a couple minute video on youtube by SuspiciousObservers.
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JonM

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #49 on: July 12, 2015, 03:36:59 pm »

I've lived in this area for over 21 years now (8 of them in NH, the rest about 20 miles south of it).  From a practical standpoint, this winter didn't seem as cold as some I remember.  There wasn't a false spring that tricked the damn bugs into hatching early and dying when the cold hit again either.  Nor was it so warm in February that my Kiwanis club had to cancel its ice fishing derby due to lack of ice, which happened a couple of years ago.  I can't recall the exact year, but it's probably around 15 or more ago that the temps where I was in MA never got above 20 for like 2 weeks.  I used to keep a case of 20oz or so water bottles in the back of my SUV back then, and temps dipping below freezing but getting back to the high 20s never usually froze the bottles on the inside if the case was full, but that week every darn one was a giant ice cube.  Don't recall that long a stretch of dire cold since then either.

So NH is colder than places south of it.  Growing seasons can be affected by it.  We didn't have a late frost this year where I am, so peeps who gambled on early planting won out over idiots like me who waited till after danger of last frost.  Cold frames let you grow things before and after the season begins, so do greenhouses.  Amazing things can be done with hydroponics indoors if you're willing to spend that kinda money on veggies.  I doubt my garden is particularly cost effective, though my decision to dump organic techniques and finally spray my apple trees with the nasty chemicals may finally result in me getting some apples this year.

How important is liberty to you?  The largest concentration of pro-liberty folk working to make a difference at a state level is currently in New Hampshire.  The political folk get elected to office to bang their head against the wall and get a few things enacted into law, and prevent some bad things from being passed.  Those who like to engage in civil disobedience have compatriots here, be it feeding parking meters (not really cvil-dis unless you're the Keene city officials), filming police (not civil dis in law, especially here in the 1st circuit thanks to Glick), and other ACTUAL civil dis.  Get arrested and peeps will call the jail asking them to let you out and treat you nice while you're there.

So if a friggin glacial starts to form in NH, despite all the hand wringing that the ice caps are melting, then we'll deal with it, if and when that comes.  But if you're going to hamstring your own desire for liberty based on what might happen with the climate,  I'd suggest rethinking that matter.

As for climate change, it was global cooling in the 70s, then global warming in the 90s and 00's, and now climate change.  Are weather patterns different than they used to be?  Damn straight, just ask any old person whose lived in an area what it was like 40 or 50 years ago.  Ask a really old person what it was like 60 or 70 years ago.  Look at historical records and things were different way back when.  California is nearly out of water and the government wants people to start using grey water for most of their water usage.  Hey California, why not water those thirsty crops with it?  Do you own the water that falls from the sky in AZ?  I know in some western states such outrages like rain barrels are illegal, specifically Colorado if I recall.  I have a well dug into the ground where my water comes from, until the aquifer dries up I guess. And I get to keep any liquid that comes from the sky onto my land without being hassled by the state.

If you wanna be truly paranoid buy a property and build giant greenhouses and set it up to heat with geo-thermal.  When it all hits the fan you can make money selling your food to us unprepared grasshoppers.  Cold shouldn't be such a deterrent to those who desire the warmth of liberty, for we know tyranny loves the warmer climates.  You can always put on another layer of clothing, there is a strict limit to just how many layers one can take off.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 03:43:23 pm by JonM »
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #50 on: July 16, 2015, 02:05:08 am »

I just read yesterday that the last of Boston's snow pile finally melted so they can start picking up the garbage.

When I read this, it got me thinking. Boston got 9.22 feet of snow this last winter when we are still just coming out of the peak sun spot counts for solar cycle 24. That snowfall really brought Boston's winter infrastructure to the brink, yet 9.22 feet of snow shouldn't really be all that unexpected. Given that 1 inch of rain makes roughly 10 inches of snow, and that Boston averages 3.46 inches of precipitation for the three months (December to Feb) that Boston has a daily mean temperature either close to or below freezing, that predicts roughly 8.6 feet of snow though Boston averages roughly half that. Did you note that parts of Germany and Scotland had over-night hard freezes last week and we are in mid July last I checked? Again, this is occuring when we are coming out of the tail end of solar cycle 24 and the sun spot counts really haven't started falling off a cliff yet.

So what happens to Boston's snowfall number if the 5.5C average (2.2C to 9C decrease is the estimated range) drop in global temperatures by 2030 predicted in the "sun is going to sleep" model is accurate?

First of all, the average daily mean in Boston falls far enought that now Boston is accruing snow from late October until well into late April.

Second, that means that with an additional 2.5 months of precipitation shifting from rain to snow, the window for snow accumulation roughly doubles.

Third, given that this data is for Logan Airport, which is right on the coast to moderate temperature shifts, anywhere more than ten miles inland from there will experience even lower average lows.

Fourth, the mean snowfall precipitation shifts far enough that the record 9.22 feet of snow Boston got this year is only slightly above where the new mean will be. (Side note: Assuming the model is accurate, some time between now and 2040 Boston will have at least one, and probably several,  winters with more than 220 inches of snow fall. Its tough to imagine how that will affect the city and surrounding area.) For the next thirty to forty years or so, the winter of 2014-2015 will probably be regarded as one of the milder ones.

Given that snow and ice reflect almost all radiation back into space, and trees and water absorb that radiation and retain it in the atmosphere, it doesn't take too much imagination to wonder what happens at the tail end of a period of inter-glaciation given that the current one (the holocene) is currently just over the average age of each of the last three periods of inter-glaciation. For all of the print devoted to auto-catalytic global warming, it makes me wonder if the reverse might occur and auto-catalytic global cooling resulted from a significant increase in global surfaces covered with snow or ice. It has happened many many times before in the planet's geological history.

As far as greenhouses, do they work under several feet of snow?

I have seen some interesting indoor hydroponics setups, and that could work but again, given that it takes roughly a quarter ton of grain to feed a person for a year, I don't see how even a massive effort at hydroponics investment puts much of a dent in the lost food supply chain if the grain belts of southern Canada, inner mongolia (China's grain belt) and Ukraine experience significant decreases in yields per acre.
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Bazil

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #51 on: July 16, 2015, 10:22:25 am »

AZViking,

As someone who has lived in the Northeast my whole life I can tell you things are getting milder.  When I was kid accumulated snow on the ground by Christmas was the norm, as time has gone on it's gotten more and more rare.  If snow does fall before Christmas it almost always melts withing a few days now.  Even the giant snow storm we got on Thanksgiving that dropped over a foot completely melted with in a couple weeks.  The key here is the snow that falls and stays, and that is happening less and less.  Even if the storms are dropping more (which they are) the increased warmth causes the snow to melt more quickly.  The rapid melting is beating out the increased accumulation.

My father who has also lived in NE his whole life reported similar difference from when he was a kid until he was an adult.  Additionally the "Jingle Bells" was written in Medford MA in the early 1800s as a Thanksgiving song!  Which means at that time snow was falling and accumulating enough by Thanksgiving to use a sleigh!

If the last snow finally melted in Boston it's because it was dumped somewhere unnaturally.  It has to be put somewhere and it's white and insulates itself.  If you make a mountain out of it, which frequently happens via snow removal it can last a long time.  It is snowing more, and more snow equals bigger mountains of snow once piled up.  However the snow would still melt more rapidly than before if it were spread out and does in places like where I live away from cities where it doesn't get piled up by humans.  Although piling of snow actually promotes warming, because you're decreasing the snow's surface area, increasing the surface area of darker objects.

If you look at milankovitch cycles it does appear we are ripe for another glacial period (over due in fact).  However it's thought the sun is triggering feed back mechanisms in the carbon cycle to bring about a glacial period.  These feed backs aren't happening because of the increased green house gasses in the atmosphere.  Things like the release of carbon from fossil fuels have a permanent impact on climate.  The reason for this is that carbon has been sequestered for hundreds of millions of years.  The process that caused the carbon to be sequestered can't happen any more since things like termites and fungus have evolved ways to break down lignin in plants.  So once the carbon is burned it will reenter the carbon cycle permanently.  Personally I think this will kick the planet out of the ice age it's been in the last few million years.  Which is what has been causing the general cooling and glacial-interglacial cycles the earth has been having.

The bottom line is the warming is beating out the increased snow fall by a larger and larger margin every year.
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JonM

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #52 on: July 16, 2015, 11:21:13 am »

I've =NEVER= seen an active greenhouse under snow because heat has a tremendous ability to melt snow.  Now, if you didn't heat your greenhouse, because unless you're using geothermal or some other heating source you don't have to pump cash into or add logs too, then it probably wouldn't work well for growing things during the very dead of winter.  Of course this year I never had to use my roof rake, because I never got enough snow on my roof to need to do that.  Your mileage may vary.  Because greenhouses are designed to get hot, even if you didn't give them an external source of heat, I doubt much snow would stay on their roofs, though actually GETTING to your green house would be more of an issue.

Geothermal is of course, rather expensive in New Hampshire because they don't call this the granite state for nothing.  Drilling is expensive here, but if you have a large enough tract of land, and a trencher or backhoe, you could probably do a horizontal installation, rather than drilling wells.  Either way, it's time or money.

I saw something that suggested the drought in California is only the tip of the sand dune.  That over the rest of the 21st century they could hit 2 or 3 even worse droughts.  Now California has a large mass of water next to it, and while desalination is expensive in both financial and environmental costs, it is at least an option.  What does Arizona have going for it if the rain does not fall from the sky?

Given the choice between too much, or too little, I'll take too much, though we have had such wet summers here that crops were impacted negatively.

Measuring when a man made pile of snow melts is a bogus measurement.  Those snow piles are compacted, and piled as high as they can make them.  When we get the right temperature fluctuations, they eventually turn into giant blocks of ice.  This winter the temperatures held at such a state that you could EASILY shovel every flake of snow that fell until about mid February.  Each storm dropped nice fluffy snow on the previous pile of snow.  It was kinda weird, I have to admit.  Those aforementioned snow piles of course as the spring comes on melt and freeze and melt and freeze, the greater the mass, the longer it takes to get rid of them.  And Boston is a city lacking a lot of places to put snow, as they're not allowed to do what they used to do in the previous century, and dump it all in the Charles river.  So as I said, bogus measurement.

The snow in my yard was gone by April if my memory serves me correctly.

You speak of long term trends and what may or may not happen.  What has happened is the state has grown out of control.  Sure Colorado lets anyone smoke weed, but nobody can legally put an empty bucket on their deck to collect rainwater. 

No state in this union is perfect, but when the idea of the FSP was created Jason made certain assumptions about maximum population and the number of activists that would be required to make a positive influence on that population.  While nobody involved on the ground here thinks we need 20,000 people most agree that a small population state was a good idea.  Then other factors were looked at and debated.

Many years ago I had to go to Jackson Hole, Wyoming to install some data storage equipment.  After I was done, I had some free time before I needed to head home and thought I might see about visiting some of the free state wyoming people.  Well the contingent of free state Wyoming people at that time were mostly located in eastern Wyoming, over 7 hours driving time from Jackson.  In New Hampshire virtually everywhere in the state is within 4 hours of everywhere else, and that's talking south to north.  East to west is about 2 hours, depending on how far south you are.  Practically speaking most places you're likely to live are no more than 3 hours from most places you're likely to want to go, and usually a lot less.

As I said, nowhere is perfect, but the voters at the time decided that New Hampshire had the best structure in place to work towards creating a society in which the maximum role of civil government is the protection of life, liberty and property.  Over 1700 people have moved to the state in advance of reaching 20,000 signers, and dozens have been elected as state representatives. Usually just over a dozen hold that office at any one time (out of 400 total reps). Dozens, perhaps hundreds more have held town and city level offices.  Other help create charities, engage in civil disobedience, participate in agorism, or whatever else they feel like doing to fulfill their statement of intent.

Now maybe the winter of 2016 will herald a new ice age and the snow won't melt until 2237.  I'm not going to live my life worried about that sort of thing.  If the grain belts fail, we do have technology to help feed us.  Perhaps the government would stop paying people to not grow food, or stop subsidizing people to grow fuel instead of food.  In fact, if the government got out of the way, I'm sure we could solve almost any problem.

Right now the government doesn't seem to way to get out of our way or its own way.  Given that some of us believe we have a better chance by moving to New Hampshire and working together here.  No matter where in the state we live, we're not too far from friends if we want to go to them or they want to come to us, or we want to meet somewhere in the middle. 

Many people say the best thing about this movement is being in a group of people where your political ideas are not the weirdest.
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #53 on: July 16, 2015, 02:17:16 pm »

Brazil,

Solar minimums occur roughly every 104 years or so with "grand" solar minimums occuring every fourth cycle. Technically, we aren't actually in the solar minimum yet since solar cycle 25 won't start for another couple years. However, 2020 minus 208 puts us right into the maw of Napoleon's winter of 1812. Four years later, which would have been in the early mid part of that solar minimum (referred to as the Dalton Minimum) is 1816, which is also known as "the year without a summer."

If the hypothesis that we are currently entering a grand solar minimum is correct, then what was happening roughly 416 years ago? Well, the sun was in the early stages of entering a roughly half century period known as the Maunder Minimum.

Your point about milankovitch cycles and being overdue for an ice age is valid. Given that periods of inter-glaciation last almost like clockwork 10,500 years, the current one (the holocene) is old enough that it is probably within plus or minus one solar minimum of entering a new ice age. Your point about AGW is not. There is zero evidence that AGW driven CO2 models have even one iota of predictive ability. Every single AGW CO2 driven climate model has been demonstrably proven false. Every single one. Given that CO2 only makes up 5% of all greenhouse gasses as well as the fact that geothermal activity accounts for over 80% of that CO2 in the atmosphere, far better explanations exist for the phenomenon. Ask any geologist and they will tell you that the CO2 released by the St. helens eruption in May of 1980 was a multiple by almost a full order of magnitude than the highest estimates of the combined human carbon footprint since the dawn of the industrial revolution.

It is true that atmospheric CO2 levels are significantly higher now than they were a century ago but there are far better explanations than AGW driven CO2 models given the data indicating that CO2 is increasingly looking like a lagging climate indicator rather than a leading one. The one I subscribe to is the car engine hypothesis. A car engine requires strict ratios of fuel and oxygen in order to combust properly. Any shift in the ratio of either of those ingredients and an engine will sputter. In a similar vein, plants require strict ratios of sunlight and CO2 in order to photosynthesise properly. There are videos validating this perspective on youtube showing side by side experiments where identical plants growing under the exact same grow light but contained in different CO2 atmospheres demonstrate significantly different growth rates. The ones in an environment with 200% or 400% more CO2 than exist in our atmosphere absolutely explode in growth, and thereby remove a far greater amount of CO2 from the surrounding atmosphere. So if CO2 is building up in the atmosphere due to reduced rates of photosynthesis, then the only other obvious part of the recepie to look at is changes in sunlight wavelength and intensity.

As far as you mentioning milder falls and early winters in the north east, I read an interesting argument for why that is. The ice dams blocking rivers feeding the arctic ocean are consistently taking longer to melt and thereby delaying feeding warmer river water volumes into the arctic ocean. Thus water builds up behind those ice dams, collects heat into the early to mid summer, and then flows into the arctic later creating an "indian summer" type phenomenon. That's all well and good, right up until those ice dams simply don't melt. Then you abruptly get a winter like 1816.

Here in southern AZ, so far this summer has been extremely mild. It is mid July and we have only had 3 days of triple digits this month and only 24 for the entire summer without a single day over 110. Back when I was in HS, triple digits were pretty much the norm every day from the second or third week of May until the first or second week of September with at least a couple pushing past 110. Winters here have changed as well. In my teens and early 20s, this part of the world never saw snow at all. However, every single winter since 2009 has had at least trace snow accumulations even at lower elevations.

Looking at wider data sets, the current climate is increasingly looking exactly like what occurred during the last ice age. 1. Warmer and drier up the west coast all the way to coastal Alaska. 2. Colder and snowier along the east coast of the US. 3. Significant increase in number and severity of tropical cyclones in the Pacific. (Prior to this year the Pacific almost never saw typhoons in the Jan- Feb-March timeframe. This year however, the typhoon season never really ended and there were significant typhoons in Jan, Feb, and March of this year.) 4. Significant decrease in number and severity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. (The last major hurricane to make landfall in the US was actually Katrina. The lul in Atlantic hurricane activity is absolutely unprecedented in modern history.) All four of those phenomena are consistent with either modeled or extant climate data from the last couple of ice ages.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2015, 02:26:53 pm by AZViking »
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JasonPSorens

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #54 on: July 16, 2015, 03:40:38 pm »

Actually, annual CO2 emissions from volcanic activity are a small fraction of annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/archive/2007/07_02_15.html
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #55 on: July 16, 2015, 04:18:22 pm »

JonM

New hampshire became "the granite state" because geologically, each of the last ice ages scraped the state clean right down to the granite.

Your point about it being an issue of either time or money is precisely where I was going. The real wage minus food and energy is going to take an absolutely monster hit globally if it does in fact turn out that the planet is entering a grand solar minimum. Since the dawn of this country, Americans have never paid much more than 15% of the real wage for food. Even in the midst of the dust bowl and the great depression, maybe a few thousand (if that) Americans actually starved to death. Famine is not a phenomenon Americans intuitively comprehend. Changes are coming.

Prior to 2009 China was pretty much self sufficient as far as food production and didn't import meaningful amounts of food at all. Since 2009 food imports to China have exploded and that will probably only expand though the communist government doesn't release verifiable data on the topic. Last fall an early snow in August decimated China's grain harvest yields. This year 20 inches of snow dropped onto China's grain belt in the last week of May wiping out any early planting and limiting the growing season. If China has another early snow fall this year, I honestly don't know where they are going to obtain sufficient food to make up the shortfall given that (as you noted) California is in the middle of a massive drought, Brazil and Argentina are as well, and Ukraine could blow up into a wider conflict at any given moment.

As far as weather here in AZ, the climate here was both much much cooler and much wetter during the last ice age. The vast high pressure ridge that made the west coast so much warmer and drier all the way up to Alaska during the last ice age pushed wet low pressure ridges from the Sea of Cortez straight over the four corners region. Mastadon fossils have been found all over southern Arizona and northern Sonora. That is interesting given the fact that they vanished from north america almost exactly co-incident with the beginning of the holocene and given the fact that mastadon fossils have been found in climates thought to be roughly 30 to 40 degrees F cooler than where elephants thrive today. Take the climate of northern Botswana, shave 30 to 40 degrees off the average high and low, and you're probably in the ballpark of what Arizona was like 11,000 years ago. In a similar vein, Saguaro cactuses, which have a very difficult time surviving in an environment with either annual frosts or significant rainfall, are thought to have first evolved somewhere close to the border between San Diego and Imperial counties in southern California (which is consistent with the warm/dry climate the west coast experienced during the last ice age), and then spread into Arizona and Sonora only relatively recently in the geologic record. If one were to go digging in the deserts around Phoenix or Tucson and you get down to the sediment levels from the tail end of the last ice age, you might find mastadon bones or coniferous tree fossils, but you definately absolutely will not find flora or fauna fossils consistent with a hot arid environment.

It blows my mind that this change in the Arizona climate occurred in just the blink of an eye (11,000 years or so) in geologic time.

I agree that things would be far better if the government got out of the way in many areas. Ever since the feds involved themselves in health care, prices have exploded at a rate far in excess of the rate of inflation. The same goes for higher education. The same goes for residential housing. The single best predictor of a parabolic increase in prices and a co-incident fall off in quality is simply whether or not the federal government involves itself in a given industry. The IRS is essentially making up tax law out of thin air and we have a kleptocratic banking industry headed by the FED focused on real wealth extraction as opposed to legitimate economic growth.

That being said, I think an opportunity exists. There are counties in the US where 2,000 politically active voters can absolutely take over every single official position from dog catcher to sheriff. Think about the possible impact of having every local school board seat occupied by someone not beholden to a corrupt teachers union. The US is technically a commonwealth. What happens to unconstitutional "laws" if a constitutionally minded local sheriff refuses to enforce them and will fire any deputy that tries? Several sheriffs is CA, NV, and OR have outright banned armed federal employees from their jurisdiction.

As far as local politics, a water fight involving all of the states along the Colorado River basin is coming in the next year or two. Given where Lake Mead is today, the first group in line to get hit are Arizona farmers and ranchers. They are going to get absolutely hammered possibly this year but most definately next year. Vast tracts of land in several counties are going to start going to auction for pennies on the dollar. I guess it comes down to asking yourself where you think the climate is going to be in the next five or ten years.
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #56 on: July 16, 2015, 04:49:04 pm »

Jason - Two things.

1. All natural sources of atmospheric CO2 add up to roughly 771 gigatons. The highest estimate for all human emissions is somewhere around 30 gigatons. 30/771=3.9%. Throw in the fact that CO2 only makes up around 5% of all greenhouse gasses and anthropogenic sources of CO2 account for about 3.9% of 5% or 0.195% of all greenhouse gasses.

2. The article you linked to discusses one relatively small, slowly venting volcano and then extrapolates that to all volcanic activity.

I've heard the 1980 Mt St. Helens CO2 eruption statistic in many places. I'll see if I can find the original source.
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JonM

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #57 on: July 16, 2015, 05:06:47 pm »

AZViking, from post one on you have posted a lot of data, but some of the problems are long term and out of our control.  People who don't buy green bananas don't worry about the climate impact 20 years from now.  Americans who are starving today aren't doing so due to a lack of food, but a failure of policy.  The same could be said about much of this planet, food exists, the problem is getting it to those who need it.

Your concern was about our weather, and you proposed us packing up and coming to you.  We've invested a lot of time in building up resources here, people moving and creating new lives for themselves, and waiting for whatever number of the rest show up both before or after we hit 20,000 signers.

2000 people in a county, you propose.  Yes some sheriffs have stood up to the feds, and this has happened more in western states than eastern.  That's a different animal, we didn't start a free county project.  Some peeps within the FSP tried a free town project, search for that if you want to learn a few object lessons.  A country can try to stand up to the feds, and in some ways it may be able to, but it is still beholden to the state in which it resides.  So our idea is to bring enough activists to NH to keep the state free and make it freer if we can.

If by some miracle in the future 201 free staters were elected to the House, 13 to the Senate, 3 to the Executive Board and 1 as Governor we could not make people any more free than they wanted to be.  Sure tons of bad laws could be repealed, but as Harriet Tubman was claimed to have said, "I freed thousands of slaves.  I could have freed thousands more, if they had known they were slaves."  Now many claim that she never said that, but the sentiment is just as true today, if for different reasons.  The government may have abolished chattel slavery, but a United States citizen is a financial slave.  No matter where you are on Earth, if you earn enough money, Uncle Sam wants a cut of it.  And if the fruits of your labor are subject to claim by someone else, you are that person's slave, even if only for 15-40% of your labor. The 20,000 activists need to teach people to WANT to be more free.  For if everyone in the state truly wanted to be free, you wouldn't need to change the government to do it.  And making people want to be free is probably a lot harder than changing the laws that make up their chains.  Step one of being free is deciding you are free.  Step two is to not get thrown into a cage for that belief.

So if you think you can get over the fact that we have seasons, and it snows here, some years more than others, give us a visit.  You can come during the snow next year for the Liberty Forum, or at the start of summer for PorcFest, or any of the other 50 weeks of the year.  Give us a bit of notice and a bunch of people will likely come to hang out with you while you are here.  If you like politics, we have all the people running for President politicking around here between now and Feb 9th, 2016.  Otherwise pick a date and come up and visit.  We're not going to change course, if you want to start a free county project, more power to you.  We're probably not a ripe environment for recruitment though, unless you pick one of the New Hampshire counties. 
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JasonPSorens

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #58 on: July 16, 2015, 07:19:25 pm »

Comparing all natural sources of CO2 to all human sources of CO2 as a way of refuting the possibility that human sources could affect climate is fallacious. Human-caused CO2 has risen rapidly over time, causing the temperature to rise. If there were no natural CO2, then Earth would be roughly like Mars. The natural CO2 helps provide for Earth's habitable climate, but the human addition has caused a modest but clearly identifiable increase in temperature within that habitable range.

Mt. St. Helens released 190 kt CO2 in its last eruption, about 0.05% of all human-released CO2 globally over that same period: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.V52B..07G
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #59 on: July 16, 2015, 07:59:48 pm »

Strictly speaking, I didn't propose anything. I simply offered one viable alternative.

Can the FSP adapt in the face of extant data?

I don't know but I am curious about the kind of culture your group is working towards.

Is the FSP strictly a function of geography or is it more of a "movable feast" of precepts guiding interpersonal relationships?

Again, I am not in a position to answer that question, but I am curious.

Then there is the issue of whether or not the underlying subject of discussion has merit. If I'm correct, then eventually prices on certain things will go parabolic. After prices go parabolic then, eventually, on some items, they won't be purchasable at any price.

Rome makes for an interesting historic precedent. The population of Rome grew steadilly during the period known as the "Roman Warm Period" from 250 BC until 400 AD. Roughly three decades later Rome began aggresively devaluing their currency by adding lesser metals to minted coins in the pre-Federal Reserve form of central banking currency devaluation. Was part of that due to declining crop yields in turn driving food prices higher and forcing the government to create more fake money just to feed the army? Between the 430s and 450 AD, Rome's population collapsed from roughly 1.1 million to roughly 100,000 and continued to fall for the next three centuries. Rome didn't return to over 1 million people until the late 19th century.

If you have read Jared Diamond's book "Guns Germs and Steel" (an excellent read) then you should be familiar with his thesis that geography drives history. In a similar vein, one might argue that climate drives history. Does Louis XVI lose his head if the French peasants aren't starving in 1793? That, and Washington's brutal winter at Valley Forge in 1777 occurred near the beginning of the Dalton minimum as sun spot numbers fell of a cliff coming out of the tail ends of solar cycles 4 and then 5. Chinese dynasties have fallen almost in tandem with solar minimum cycles.
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