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Author Topic: Hate to bring bad news, but....  (Read 22290 times)

AZViking

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Hate to bring bad news, but....
« on: November 21, 2014, 08:42:49 am »

Hello all. First time on the forum.

I absolutely agree 100% with the free association of similarly minded libertarian individuals. Further, though I prefer a slightly warmer climate, I hear New Hampshire is fantastic.

One concern I have is simply the issue of the weather. This may sound odd, but bear with me a little bit.

For such a group that regards itself as largely free and independant thinkers, I'm just wondering why no one in the FSP seems to be questioning the climate change orthodoxy. This seems like it should be front and center to the FSP and the selection of New Hampshire given the geology. Why do they call New Hampshire "the Granite State?" Answer: Because each of the last ice ages sent so many sheets of ice over New Hampshire that it was literally scraped clean down to the granite.

Some might ask why I regard this as a legitimate concern given the overwhelming propaganda about "global warming." All you have to do is look outside at how this winter started after 3 of the last 5 have set records for snow and cold.

Given that the evidence that the planet is actually entering either a climate similar to the Dalton minimum (at best), a Manuder minimum (solar models are predicting negligible sunspots for solar cycle 25, most likely), or even a new ice age (each of the last three inter glacial periods lasted an average of 10,550 years and the current one, the Holocene, is roughly 10,700 years in, a distinct possibility), I'm just wondering if a place that got it's nickname from geology caused by each of the last ice ages is the best place to celebrate liberty.

There are extensive resources to document this, most notably former NASA scientist John Casey's book "Dark Winter How the Sun is causing a 30-year Cold Spell." If you care for something somewhat technical the video on youtube "Are We Entering a Maunder Minimum" covers some of the recent literature on solar science from rapidly declining sunspot numbers, to declining sun spot strength, to the 3 year delay in the sun's north pole reversing polarity. Another youtube user, "Adapt2030," has put together a fairly straight forward video series documenting global cooling that is readilly understandable to any layman that checks the weather on their way to work every morning.

It comes down to the simple fact that the IPCC and NOAA are lying. I'm not going to get into any speculation about why they are lying, but the evidence is as incontrovertable as the ice forming in the great lakes a full 5 weeks early than average this year.

If the solar models predicting a rapid decline in sunspots (and some scientists are predicting between 0 and 10 sunspots for monthly averages during the peak of solar cycle 25) then winter in NH will start in late August or early September and won't end until late May or early June.

I know many had their hearts set on NH, but I would hate for the FSP to end up under a sheet of ice the second the MSM finally admits "yea,....we kinda lied about global warming."

As an alternative, allow me to propose southern AZ. During both the Dalton and Maunder minimums, southern AZ was much much cooler as well as being far wetter.

At the very least you can beat the baby boomers to the prime retirement real estate environment and you can sell to them over the next 15 years.
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ptb

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2014, 11:54:45 am »

Ok, let's pack it up people! We got the wrong state. This guy says an ice age might be coming.

Didn't anybody think to check on the weather?
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JasonPSorens

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2014, 01:44:03 pm »

Arizona - Want to make a bet on NH average temperature 10 years from now? I win $100 if NH average annual temperature is no more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit lower over the next 10 years than it was over the last 10 years; you win $100 if it is lower than that.

I'm only willing to make this bet if you make your name and city of residence known so that I can be assured of being paid. I'm all over Google, so it will be easy for you to find me.
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"Educate your children, educate yourselves, in the love for the freedom of others, for only in this way will your own freedom not be a gratuitous gift from fate. You will be aware of its worth and will have the courage to defend it." --Joaquim Nabuco (1883), Abolitionism

AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2014, 03:17:27 pm »

Jason - Sure. My only stipulation is that I don't like to give out public contact info. If you have an e-mail address and you are willing to keep my e-mail address private, I would be willing to make a gentleman's bet.

Did you have one ground station in NH in particular in mind or a basket of ground stations in NH? Further, which temperature data set would you like to use to set historic averages? I am not a fan of NOAA because they have been caught fudging their data over and over and over....

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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2014, 04:10:27 pm »

The only problem though, is that if what I've learned about sunspots is correct, and sunspot magnetism strength dips below the 1500 Gauss range in another two to three years, the bet will kinda be moot.
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celtic.circle

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2014, 06:58:17 pm »

I am new as well to the forum AZ and would like to say I lived in Apache Junction, AZ for a few years as well as Manchester, NH (Currently in NM planning a return to NH).

Your comments regarding climate change seem somewhat centered around survivability or preparedness and with that in mind I would have you reconsider a few thoughts. The dessert doesn't offer much in the way of growing without a great deal of soil preparation, the drought there (and here) has been severe for sometime and the proximity to CA in regards to fracking (Ground water / aquifer contamination ) as well as increased earthquake activity are a fair amount of negative factors.

NH on the flip side has a abundance of fresh clean water, snow that can be melted into water, fertile soils, abundant wildlife and earthquakes are not as large a issue (or even as likely).

So in summation a little colder weather vs. some of the mentioned larger issues may be a more prudent choice if the focus is on survivability based on weather changes, unrest or even a EMP (speaking solar)...

However I think the focus of this movement is more centered around liberty, life, freedom and the original American Dream. NH has for many years has had the embers of freedom and liberty smoldering and in today's political climate the need to fan that flame has become a paramount concern. If we continue down our current path climate change will be the least of our concerns because we already know the wealthy, politicians and their minions are preparing for the tide to shift.

Our country is being devastated for the profits of a few while the 99% get buried, pushed out, neglected and driven to homelessness and despair. The only way to change what is happening is for the people to wake up and see that a better way can be had, can work and can be achieved. With the massive amount of propaganda being aired on lame stream media, consumerism and consumption being programmed into the mass population the only way to combat the looming disaster if for a group, coalition or state to illustrate how things can be better.

Liberty is a mindset at the moment with a few UN-programmed, a few awakened individuals but the majority are sheep unable to see the bigger picture. So the example needs to be a glaring, shining and undeniable fact that they can see and realize can happen, is happening and can change the course we are on.

Every movement needs a solid foundation to be launched from and NH has had that foundation for years. The idea is to concentrate the numbers of individuals who can effect change into one area and set the stage for the previously mentioned example.

America doesn't need more millionaires, lawyers and bankers making the rules... It NEEDS idealists, dreamers, musicians, artists, doctors, nurses, and common people making the rules.

Our forefathers knew this and warned us but MONEY has skewed the message, warning and tilted the rules in favor of a handful of individuals. So the vision has in large part been lost and the only way to get it back it to show by example that liberty, freedom and the people governing is the way back to a stable coarse where the class divide is smaller and people can actually live a fulfilling life, without struggle, without wars and poverty...

This project has the right goal (to concentrate our efforts in one area with the best possible chance of success) and if we believe life is more than just following instructions, swallowing lies and propaganda and that PEOPLE make a difference then we need to follow our hearts and make the move for a better future.

Does that mean it cannot happen in AZ, NM or any other state... Certainly not, however the ground work, grass roots involvement and concentration of like minded individuals will take time and considerable effort and time is something very little realize is running out.

The foundation has already been laid and it behooves us to take advantage of that now and start building the momentum now before that all precious time runs out.

NH may not be everyone's cup of tea but I would rather be surrounded by freedom fighters in the cold winter than zombies in the warm fema camps of the south  ;)

Just my thoughts friend, I hope they give you a few of your own to mull over :)
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Bazil

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2014, 07:17:46 pm »

An ice age?  It sounds like you took a nice deep draft of Al Gore's cool aid.  Evidence shows that ice ages come on slow, but end fast.  So we'll have a couple millennia warning.  Baring an asteroid or major volcanic eruption causing a global winter I can almost guarantee warmer temps over the next century, a much longer time than you'll have to worry about.  If an ice age does happen rapidly it will quickly accomplish what some people in the FSP are trying to accomplish slowly, which is way less government.  So come on and move to NH, if we have quick onset ice age all the better.  I bet I could outrun the fastest glacier even on foot with a 50 pound pack.
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b2b_dna

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2014, 11:29:37 am »

I fear my government more than I fear climate change.  Government will cost me more in a year than climate change will cost me over a lifetime.  Government confiscation through taxation will cost me more through my lifetime than climate change will cost my children and their children through their lifetimes.  Thus, it doesn't matter to me who is actually right.  The penalty will be inflicted by government reacting one way or another.  So I would rather simply hack back government than fight the climate politicians.
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2014, 04:59:57 pm »

Actually, the evidence is that ice ages come in spurts of sudden cold with snow that simply doesn't melt. For example, Russians have found complete mastadons carcases in permafrost. When disected, they found undigested buttercups and other flowers in the wooly mamoth's stomach. So let's think this through. First it was warm enough for flowers to bloom such that the wooly mamoth could eat them and then it was suddenly cold enough to freeze that wooly mamoth into the permafrost before it had a chance to digest the flowers. That means that the cold came on fairly rapidly. Something similar happened with cattle in North Dakota two years ago. Imagine a snow storm like the one that hit Buffalo earlier this week, only it doesn't melt.

Could you outrun a glacier? Probably. However, where would you go? What would you eat if food prices rise significnatly? Would anyone want to buy your house that is currently under that glacier? What about your capital or your other fixed assets? Similar questions had to be answered by my ancestors in Greenland at the end of the medieval warm period.

I've been looking at this for a while and the data seems farily conclusive. NOAA and the IPCC are lying. All of their CO2 driven models of climate change have been proven false. Further, the IPCC has sought to ban any climate change research utilizing solar output as the driver for the models. My libertarian instincts tell me that when some statutory "official" seeks to ban an area of scientific inquiry there must be something to that area of scientific inquiry.

The signs you want to look for are earlier snows in the fall and later snows in the spring. This last year it took until early July for the last of the ice on the great lakes to thaw and the ice started reforming just this last week, a full five weeks earlier than average. The key thing to remember about those data points is the simple fact that....this is happening when the sun is currently at the peak of the 11-year solar cycle. Yes, that is correct. Solar cycle 24 was a double peak with the S pole shifting polarity roughly 4 years ago, and it looks like the N pole finally completed its shift in the last week or two roughly 3 years late. As we slide off into the quiet period of the 11-year solar cycle, temperatures are going to continue to fall before starting to rise again in the next 11-year peak starting around 2020 or so.

Then there are the forecasts for what to expect in Solar Cycle 25. It is my understanding that models utilizing the velocity of filaments on the surface of the sun can have a high degree of precision in predicting sun spot activity. For example, these models predicted an average of 68 sun spots per month for solar cycle 24 and we have so far averaged 66.7. Those same models are predicting an average of 7 sun spots per month for solar cycle 25. With 7 predicted, that puts us right in the range for the start of the Maunder Minimum. To get an idea of how extant the snows will get, simply look at the geology. With that as the guide, nobody in North America will be living north of the Delaware Gap.

I know you will want evidence to back up a claim. Don't believe a word I have typed. I simply urge some inquiry into the topic because I don't think I could stockpile enough cocoa for every libertarian in NH if all of you have to outrun a glacier.

On the topic of alternatives, one reason I like AZ is the simple fact that I can't think of any states that are more pro 2nd amendment than AZ. We sued the FEDs over failure to prosecute illegals and crafted legislation to enable local enforcement. Congressional District 2 has two of the top 10 high schools in the US year after year, one of the best land grant Universities in the US, and a political demographic that could stand for some libertarian movement. Further, if we do return to a Maunder Minimum, southern AZ is going to be both much cooler and much wetter.
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2014, 05:58:57 pm »

Has anyone else noted that a significant number of the cold and snow records currently being shattered date to the 1880s?

Guess which decade, prior to this one, had a solar cycle max where sun spots either only cleared triple digits for average sun spots per month only once or not at all? (Solar cycle 24 barely cleared tripple digits once last Feb at 102)

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt

Essentially, the sun is a dynamo reversing polarity roughly every 11 years which in turn drives the sun spot rhythm. Whenever the sun spot peak for a solar cycle is delayed, the subsequent solar cycle is extremely weak. I raise this issue because, assuming the N pole has finally reversed polarity after flickering between + and - thropughout 2014, it is roughly 3 years late to complete this cycle. Based on chinese sun spot data (and assuming that is accurate), even the solar cycle inagurating the maunder minimum wasn't that late.

http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html

Scroll to the bottom for the most recent data.
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Jerry B

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2014, 12:26:18 pm »

Well, my main concern is freedom. The fewer bureaucrats and armed enforcers within a given geographical area, the better. (ZERO would be best!) If there is to be an ice age, or if "global warming" gets us, either way will get all of us regardless of whether we are in NH or New Mexico or wherever. And if there might be economic collapse, civil unrest and rioting in the streets, I'd rather be in NH than most of those other states!)
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2014, 12:00:37 am »

I agree that the fewer the 'crats the better.

The opportunity I see though is that 'crats are not famous for adapting.

As far as what may be coming, I simply urge informed debate.

If mean temperatures fall in a manner consistent with previous grand solar minimums, the real wage will collapse globally. The percentage of household income devoted to food and energy will increase significantly at the same time.

My guess is that it probably won't be until another early start to the winter of 16 that most people start to wonder if these brutal winters are ever going to end. By then (or not long after) we will know if sunspot magnetism has fallen below 1500 Gauss, because the sunspots will have all but vanished.

A couple of things to watch for in the intermediate horizon if that hypothesis is correct....
1. Look for a sharp fall off in the number of sunspots over the next 90-120 days. If we are in the 30-40 range for monthly average sunspots by March then the winter of 2015 will start another week or two earlier than 2014, which is already decimating records for snow and old.
2. Snow continuing to fall in the mid-west/great lakes region into early/mid May.
3. Last year it took until early July for the great lakes to finally finish thawing. Look for another late thaw adding another week or possibly two into July for the full thaw in 2015.
4. The last thing to watch for before a truly epic winter, is how late in the year the ice dams in the rivers feeding the arctic ocean break. Ironically, late dam thaws can actually cause an "indian summer" phenomenon at solar cycle mid-points with a few weeks of above average temperatures in september and october because it traps warmer water in rivers and streams most of the summer before releasing it into the arctic to warm the northern hemisphere around the time that fall starts (resulting in conditions similar to the relatively mild winter and record low arctic ice in 2012). In 1816, those rivers didn't thaw. That year was also known as "the year without a summer."
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TJames

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2014, 05:26:54 pm »

Elephants don't digest with their stomachs. It is simply for storing food.

The sun is in a cool cycle right now. CO2 is the primary culprit in climate change. CO2 levels are very high because of human activity and could go critical if they double.
This climate change means that the Arctic is melting while temperate climates get an icy blast every winter.
Human activity has expanded the amount of animal life on Earth. I wonder if we could expand plant life and make farm animals more economical.

Although I understand human contribution to climate change and to potential damage it could cause to the economy, I am not worried too much. If an individual is a productive member of a strong social network he may do alright. Even with only 1,000 liberty activist in New Hampshire right now the community has a great degree of adaptability and networking. Some new movers find themselves in a house or village with half a dozen other free staters connected in town wide network of several dozen free staters networked over nearby state lines with other networks of small homes and villages. Many people in this network farm but a lot of us are interested in investing, science, computer science, robotics, and architecture. A few times Earthship biotecture has come up on the forums. If an ice age came we would just move underground. It would be easier than building a dome city on Mars, an idea that is becoming more realistic.
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freedomroad

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2014, 05:49:19 pm »

For such a group that regards itself as largely free and independant thinkers, I'm just wondering why no one in the FSP seems to be questioning the climate change orthodoxy. This seems like it should be front and center to the FSP and the selection of New Hampshire given the geology.

The FSP doesn't take positions on any political issues or politics. It is about signing up 20,000 liberty loves to move to NH and be active for liberty.
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AZViking

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Re: Hate to bring bad news, but....
« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2014, 09:59:32 pm »

CO2 driven climate models are a joke with zero predictive accuracy.

CO2 makes up only about 5% of greenhouse gasses. Of that only about 5% is attributable to man made sources with volcanos contributing far more than any other source. Additionally, several models have shown that CO2 is a lagging input to global climate change, not a leading input. The hypothesis is that consumption of CO2 in the atmosphere works like a car engine where strict ratios of O2 and fuel are required for combustion. In that analogy, plants require strict ratios of CO2 and sunlight for photosynthesis. Any change in sunlight wavelength or magnitude results in a buildup in CO2 in the atmosphere. Further, there is evidence that in the lead up to ice ages volcanism increases also contributing to an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere. Just run a search for "chart on volcanism" to see the spike in volcanic activity over the last half century. The theory there is that as mass, in the form of ice, accrues to the poles it drives geothermal shifts in mass internal to the globe. This last August Antarctica experienced the highest level of glaciation ever recorded.

Even broaching the topic of AGW CO2 is of dubious merit.
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